Who Has the Edge in The Big Game?
By Doug Upstone
With each passing day, the excitement builds towards it crescendo on Super Bowl Sunday. Today is when the official game plan is installed by both teams in hopes of taking home the trophy and getting a big fat ring. The straight up winner in the Super Bowl is 32-5-3 against the spread, thus it means the game boils down to match-ups not other factors. Here is our take on the various aspects of the game. Each section will be graded like a boxing match, with a 10-point must per category. At the end the total differential is designed to reflect what the spread should be.
Bears Offensive line vs. Colts Defensive line
Chicago center Olin Kreutz remains one of the top centers in the NFL. Chicago averaged 124 YPG rushing this season and has improved on that total the last six games, to 145.5 YPG. They are at their best in straight ahead blocking schemes having the running backs hitting the holes quickly. The defensive turnaround against the rush by the Colts is one of the most unfathomable stories in playoff history. Indy is allowing just 73.3 YPG rushing in the post-season. Two points worth following in this match-up. Chicago needs to have offense in third and short and make conversions. The Indy defense could never get off the field during the regular season, because they did such a poor job on first down. Bears T John Tait will need help on Dwight Freeney who has elevated his game.
Decision: Bears 10 Colts 9
Bears Receivers vs. Colts Defensive Backs
Bernard Berrian continues to be Rex Grossman's favorite target. Chicago OC Ron Turner has shortened some of the routes Berrian runs, making him more effective, while still maintaining deep route threat. Muhsin Muhammad makes the big catches to keep the chains moving. The Colts pass defense has been more effective because the safeties have not had to play as close to the line of scrimmage in run downs and in normal passing downs they can play conventional Cover 2 scheme keeping everything underneath. In the playoffs the front four have put enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks that keeping back seven in clogged passing lanes.
Decision: Bears 10 Colts 10
Bears Quarterback vs. Colts Defense
In the search for every angle possible, the question has been raised is Rex Grossman the worst Super Bowl quarterback ever? The obvious answer is no because David Woodley and Tony Eason already have proved their capabilities. Chicago has built this team to not be dependent upon the quarterback to win games. That is not to say he doesn't have to make plays to win, because he most certainly does. The Colts defense is about speed and execution without many frills. Its clear Grossman has listened well to his coaches in the latter stages of the season to not force throws and toss the ball away when nothing is available. Indy will probably show a few different looks in obvious passing situations to attempt to bait him into bad throws. As unfair as it may be, his performance may well determine the rest of him career.
Decision: Colts 10 Bears 9
Colts Offensive line vs. Bears Defensive line
With all the talking heads focusing on Bob Sanders as the reason why the Indianapolis improved, another more subtle factor emerged. In the Colts opening nine game winning streak, they averaged 27 rushing attempts per game. In losing four of the next six games that figure dropped to 22.5 in the losses. It appears the coaching staff challenged the offensive line to help carry the load. In the last four wins the Colts have averaged for them an astonishing 34 carries a game. Equally as remarkable has been how physical the front five have been in churning out third and short first downs time after time. The Chicago defensive line is one of the most physical in all of football. The depth is not the same as early in the season, yet look for the Bears to be clawing at Peyton Manning all evening. Despite his obvious physical talents; Brian Urlacher is more valuable within five yards of the line of scrimmage then chasing tight ends and backs out of the backfield. Watch Adewale Ogunleye and rookie defensive end Mark Anderson, if they are having success, Colts offense could have problems.
Decision: Colts 10 Bears 10
Colts Receivers vs. Bears Defensive Backs
As good as the Chicago defensive backs are the only thing they have seen even remotely close to the Colts offense was on a Monday at St. Louis. In that game the Bears took control thanks to two touchdown returns in the kicking game. Otherwise the talented Rams receivers caught passes for 332 total yards. The Indianapolis receivers are even better as is the signal caller. Marvin Harrison has more moves to get open then NE-YO latest video. Reggie Wayne finds a way to get open either underneath or in seam patterns. Dallas Clark, nobody has covered him since his return from injury.
Decision: Colts 10 Bears 8
Colts Quarterback vs. Bears Defense
After almost two and a half games of below average play, Manning got in one of those grooves that made him impossible to stop in the AFC title game. It is unlikely Chicago will show him anything he hasn't seen, thus the Bears will need to bring pressure to get him out of comfort level. Manning's main Linus-like safety blanket Clark is back and he knows he can count on him if everything else breaks down. If Manning makes silly throws, all the Bears DB's have good hands and will intercept untimely throws. Unlike Grossman, this game will likely define Manning's career, especially with the favored team.
Decision: Colts 10 Bears 8
Special Teams
Devin Hester was one of those rare players who became a star of sorts because of his unique ability to return kicks. Indy's Terrence Wilkins has had good season, but Hester was off the charts. Indianapolis kick coverage has been weak overall in the last month, while the Bears have improved. Solid edge for Chicago.
Decision: Bears 10 Colts 8
Kickers
Robbie Gould has been terrific all season and has not missed in the post-season, including game winner against Seattle. With Miami being the site of the Super Bowl, the winds will often be blowing causing kickers' consternation as to which way the wind is blowing. Adam Vinateri has established himself as possibly the greatest clutch place kicker of all time. Swirling winds would seem to have little effect on him after all those seasons in New England. Plus he has the familiarity of kicking in this stadium every year. Can anyone really pick someone over Vinateri at this point?
Decision: Colts 10 Bears 9
Coaching
Though neither coach has been the head coach in a game of this magnitude, Dungy rates a slight edge because of his vast experience. With the Colts favored, more pressure is heaped upon them to perform. Dungy's quite demeanor will help his team stay focused on the task at hand.
Decision: Colts 10 Bears 9
Intangibles
The underdog team has managed to be the stronger play in recent years with 4-1 ATS record and even Seattle out-played Pittsburgh last year despite the final outcome. The old disrespect card works on today's modern athlete and coaches understand how to effectively manipulate it. If the spread stays where it is at, underdogs are 5-3-1 ATS when priced at +7 to +9 points.
Decision: Bears 10 Colts 9
Commodities
The match-ups themselves are relatively close throughout except at one position, the quarterback. That is not to say Grossman can't have a career day and Manning could fall on his face. In the five other most obvious quarterback mismatches in Super Bowl history the team with the superior field general posted a 5-0 record with 4-1 ATS mark.
Decision: Colts 10 Bears 8
The final decision reads - Colts 106 Bears 101
The Inside Line From PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
12-7-2005
The talk of this NFL season has been how the Indianapolis Colts have dominated their opponents on their way to an astounding 12-0 start. Only the 1972 Dolphins have finished with an unblemished regular season record and no team has gone undefeated since the schedule was expanded to 16 regular season games. With this in mind, one has to wonder what the chances are that Indianapolis will win out its last 4 games.
Next up on the schedule are the Jacksonville Jaguars, the only team to have a second-half lead against the Colts. In their first meeting, Jacksonville was up 3-0 before losing 10-3. The moneyline on this game at Pinnacle Sports is -316/+296, which suggests that Indy will win this match-up 74.7% (306/406) of the time.
At 12-0, Indianapolis has already clinched a playoff spot and if they defeat the Jaguars, the Colts will also secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This adds a new twist to the equation: Will Coach Tony Dungy rest his key players? When interviewed, he was unsure. A quarterback has about a 1 in 16 chance of getting injured if he plays a full game. For this reason, it's common for playoff-bound teams in meaningless games to rest key starters. Despite Dungy's ambiguous answers to questions on resting players, I think he'll maintain his focus on winning the Super Bowl.
If they reach 13-0, the Colts would then host the Chargers with home field advantage locked up. If this game were played two weeks earlier, the Colts would be about an 11-point favorite (-830/+750). In that scenario, Indy would win about 88.7% of the time. In past seasons, the lines have adjusted about 6 points for teams in "rest situations", but the resting teams have done poorly against the spread. I believe we are therefore likely to see an 8-point spread adjustment, so resting most starters would change the line to Colts -3 (-150/+140), suggesting Indy would win 59%.
Beating San Diego would make Indianapolis 14-0, and they would next visit Seattle. The Seahawks have already won their division and would likely be playing for home field advantage. If neither team were resting, the visiting Colts would be about 4-point favorites. Assuming the Colts nap and the Seahawks don't also take the afternoon off, the adjusted line would be Seahawks -4 (-185/+175). In either case, the 4-point favorite should win about 64% of the time.
Should the Colts be 15-0 heading into the final week of the season, they would be heavy favorites at home versus Arizona. Super Bowl aspirations aside, I'm not sure Coach Dungy could rest his players at home against a cakewalk opponent with history on the line. If the Colts played full strength, this line would be about -18 with a greater home field advantage than normal. Resting would still make the Colts a solid 10-point favorite. The Colts will win 94% if they don't rest, or 87% if they do.
In conclusion: if Indy chooses to rest its players, I calculate the chances of them going 16-0 as:
(0.747) (0.59) (0.36) (0.87) = 13.8%, or -654 (No) / +594 (yes).
However if Indy plays for history, the odds of going 16-0 adjust to:
(.747)(.887)(.64)(.94) = 40%, or -155 (No) / +145 (Yes).
Do you have an opinion on whether Indy will finish 16-0? Have you read something I've missed about Tony Dungy's willingness to risk injuries to Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison while chasing a perfect regular season record? Or do you have some other insight? You can bet your opinion at PinnacleSports.com as we are now offering odds on the prop:
Will Indy go 16-0?
Yes +146
No -164
We have also seen interesting line movement on Indy's AFC South match-up against the Jags this week as well as on the following games listed below.
Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville
With starting Jaguar QB Byron Leftwich out for another few weeks, the Jags will once again rely on replacement David Garrard. He led Jacksonville to victory against Arizona and Cleveland, but faces a much stiffer test against the third-ranked defense of the Colts. A win for Jacksonville locks up a wildcard position, whereas an Indy victory in any of its last 4 games will secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
We opened the game at Colts -7. Indy is clearly a public team and we are taking four times as many bets on them as the Jaguars. The sharps seem split on this game with some playing Indy at -7 and significantly more on Jacksonville at +7.5.
Chicago (+6) at Pittsburgh
The Bears have relied heavily on defense during their current 8-game win streak by holding opponents to 8.5 points per game, picking off 10 interceptions with 337 interception-return yards and scoring 3 TDs. Not surprisingly, quarterback Kyle Orton has been part of a very conservative, run-based offense that minimizes mistakes, but only generates 16.8 points per game.
Pittsburgh also boasts an above-average defense allowing less than 19 points per game. With Roethlisberger starting, the Steeler offense has been productive with 337 yards per game. Unless the Chicago defense can score or generate several turnovers, a more balanced Pittsburgh team is the favorite to prevail.
This has been our highest volume game of the week thus far. We opened this game at Chicago +4 and took several early hits from sharps on Pittsburgh. The market price has crept up since until it topped off at +5.5 and +6. At this price, we are seeing the professional players side with Chicago.
New England (-3) at Buffalo
At 7-5, a New England victory would be enough to clinch the mediocre AFC East division (whose other three teams are a combined 11-25). The Bills at 4-8, can still mathematically win the division by winning out the season and there are also a few scenarios where a 7-9 team could still win the division.
We opened this game at -3 -125. While the public is favoring the Patriots, there is dissent among the sharps. A majority of the pros are taking Buffalo +3 +115, while a few are favoring New England -3 whenever the price drifts to -115 or better.
And now for something completely different.
Miss World Finals
Over 100 of the most beautiful women on earth will gather in Sanya, China this Saturday to compete for the title of Miss World 2005. I can only think that our red blooded odds makers have had way too much time on their hands this week, as they have created individual odds on over 40 contestants to win the Miss World title. Believe it or not, we have seen a very strong move and sharp money show for Miss Philippines, where our opener of +2000 was driven down to +500.
We also originally offered Miss Namibia at +1000 to advance to the finals of Miss World. Knowledgeable sharps with an eye for the ladies have also pounded this number down to -500.
Pinnacle Pulse
November 9, 2005
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
If you're a fan of a certain team, you're probably more familiar with the team's nuances than the team itself. How can you turn your specialized knowledge about a team into winning wagers? The answer is easier than you think. Instead of just betting the game spread or total, you should focus on halftime and quarter lines in addition to your game wagers.
When a sports book sets a line for a first half or quarter, the entire match-up is reduced to a set of numbers based on the game spread and total. Using those two numbers, most sports books look at a chart and set spreads and totals for the first half and quarter. The identity and style of a team is lost and are translated into a simple number. So if Notre Dame and USC are both 20 point favorites in two games with similar totals, the first half spreads and totals will be very similar. A knowledgeable fan will know the numbers are off, presenting a great opportunity to win.
Knowing a lot about teams allows you to identify situations where a team will play at a different level in a first half or quarter than the expectation for the game. Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis scripts his offense's entire first two series before the game with a strategy tailored against his opponent. The fan knows to play Notre Dame in the first half, where they have outscored their opponents in 7 out of 8 games. On the other extreme is USC, which tends to start slow against good teams, but is great in the second half following Pete Carroll's halftime adjustments.
Betting games you're watching can present golden opportunities for second half wagering. Linesmakers typically use the score of the game, as well as the closing game spread and total to set second half lines. If time permits, they may also briefly look at the box score. Unfortunately for the sports books, there are simply too many games to watch them all closely. If you're watching a game, you're in a better position to measure the ebb and flow than the book.
Is a normally strong team playing flat? Were there a few minor injuries (i.e. two offensive linemen) that should affect the line but didn't? Or is a key skill player out? Any of these factors should change a line significantly, but often do not, giving you a tremendous edge. To turn that edge into the most money, you should bet at Pinnacle Sports where we offer a 10-cent line on second half spreads and totals compared to a 20-cent line at most sports books.
Occasionally a player is watching a game he bet and his opinion changes on the team he bet on. For example, you bet the underdog at +6 points, and the teams are tied at halftime. Even though your team is covering, you think their play is sloppy and the score is based more on luck than outplaying the opponent. That is an ideal situation to "hedge out". At halftime you check the line for the other team and it's listed at -3 where you hedge out. With a wager on the dog at +6, and the favorite at -3, it's impossible to lose both bets, but possible to win both. You probably don't want to hedge out of every game with a possible middle, but you should be aware of this option, especially when your opinion on the game has changed while watching it.
While fans and spectators of a game have an inherent advantage in quarter and halftime lines, you don't have to watch the game to profit. Some professionals create a database showing how often certain results occur to play middles. For example, Pinnacle Sports might have a first half line at -3 -105, while another sports book offers +3.5 -110. Playing +3.5 -110 and -3 -105 is an attempt to "middle" the game. You will either lose an average of $7.50 or win $100, but you cannot lose both bets. These two bets together are giving you 13/1 odds on "Will the favorite win the first half by exactly 3?" If this actually happens more than 1 in 14 times, you'll be on the winning end.
Another way to make easy money is to watch the lines of many sports books during halftimes. It's not unusual for a second half line to move 20 cents or more. There are often perfect scalps for the taking like playing one team at +3 +105, and its opponent at -3 +105 for the second half. Due to our 10-cent lines, most scalps will involve Pinnacle Sports because we'll always have a better price on one side, if not both, compared to any other book. When playing these scalps, your attention should be focused on the beginning of each halftime, where the scalps tend to occur because the market quickly synchronizes within a few minutes.
While the focus of this article has been on wagering on halftime and quarter lines, there are still opportunities to win playing game spreads and totals by following the line movement. So let's take a look at some of the weekend's biggest movers.
LSU -3 at Alabama
Alabama's defense is ranked first in the nation, allowing only 8.2 points per game. Despite their 9-0 record and #3 ranking in the BCS, 'Bama is the underdog here due to their offensive woes. Since the loss of playmaker Tyrone Prothro, Alabama has averaged just 12 points in its last 3 SEC games. The Crimson Tide offense has accounted for just 7 points per game in that same period, with defense and special teams scoring the rest.
We've already had tremendous volume on this game - nearly 5 times the average for other college games. This game opened at LSU Pick -109, and the sharps and public initially backed only LSU. Alabama money started trickling in once the line hit +2.5 and the sharps started playing Alabama when it hit +3 -105. Some of our scalpers were taking Alabama +2.5 +106 or higher, and selling it off at other shops. The price has stabilized at -3 -108, at which point we raised the early limits to $10,000 per wager.
Auburn +3 -111 at Georgia
Georgia is coming off its only loss of the season against Florida. Without starting QB D.J. Shockley, Georgia was held to just 10 points and 288 yards of offense versus the Gators, compared to 31 points and 420 yards of offense per game with Shockley starting. He is probable for Saturday showdown against rival Auburn.
This has been another high volume game early on. We initially opened at Auburn +4 -105, and took 2 bets on the dog for every favorite bet. The sharps took the dog early at +4 and +3.5, and later took Georgia at -3 -103. The line has leveled-off with the dog players taking +3 -110 or better, and the favorite players laying -3 +103 or better.
St. Louis at Seattle O/U 51
Seattle and St. Louis have the #1 and #2 offenses in the league, gaining 387 and 370 yards per game, respectively. St. Louis manages an impressive offense, despite having the second worst turnover differential in the league at -9. If Seattle wins, it will have a three-game lead over the Rams in the NFC West, and will own the tiebreaker due to head-to-head results.
We opened this total at 49 flat, and received early sharp action on the over. The pros were playing Over 50 -103 all the way to -110. Some of the scalpers were taking under 50 +106 as the market lagged. We have taken about 3 times as much volume on this total compared to a normal NFL total.
Minnesota +9.5 -112 at New York Giants
With Daunte Culpepper at quarterback, the Vikings started poorly going 2-5 partly due to his 12 interceptions thrown compared to just 6 touchdowns. Culpepper's injury forced Brad Johnson to start at QB last week, where he breathed new life into the Vikings offense. He completed 15 of 22 passes for 3 touchdowns with no INTs. The Giants have won 3 straight and are now alone atop the NFC East at 6-2. A matured Eli Manning has continued to improve, tossing 14 TDs to just 5 INTs. Expect Manning to be sharp against the Viking defense, which is ranked 27th in points allowed.
This game opened with the Vikings at +9 flat, where the price has fluctuated between +9 and +9.5. We have opposition at this point between sharps with many are buying a half-point to take the Vikings at +10, while a different group is taking the Giants at -9 and selling down to -10. If the game lands on the "10", it will be a slightly bad result for us.
Pinnacle Pulse
November 2, 2005
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
With the reigning Super Bowl Champion Patriots hosting the undefeated Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, I thought it might be interesting in this week's column to highlight a smarter way to bet on
these high profile games at Pinnacle Sports.
For the first time since 2002, New England is receiving points at home. As
of today, the market price for the Colts saw them favored by 3 or 3.5 with
a game total of 47. In nine Monday night games this year, the underdogs have gone 5-4, while playing the over has been 4-4-1.
In the past, sharps have always loved home dogs getting points on the Monday night game, but the trend has cooled in recent years. In 2004, home dogs were 2-2 ATS and there has only been one home underdog so far this year, with Atlanta winning outright against Philadelphia.
Historically, high profile games like most Monday Night contests have often had predictable line movements. Weather and injury factors excepting, conventional wisdom says to play the favorite early or the
underdog an hour before kickoff to ensure the best price available. Last week was no exception as Baltimore opened as a 9.5 point underdog and closed at +12.5 against the Steelers.
Similarly, totals have a history of steaming upwards as game time approaches. Many times, the difference between winning and losing a bet is a single point and just like shopping lines, waiting to place an under
bet until Monday evening will often get you that extra point.
A lot of times it is possible that you won't find a side or total you like on the Monday night game. In this instance, disciplined bettors will simply pass on the game, and focus on proposition bets (or "props").
Public games like Monday night football often provide more opportunities in props than on the game itself. They are the easiest for a player to beat and sports books routinely lose money on them.
When you wager on a proposition, it's typically your opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get the best of it. As a result, many props departments will consider a
break-even day as a small victory.
Pinnacle Sports often offers more than forty reduced juice props on premier games with a 16 cent line to provide unbeatable value to the player. By way of comparison, other online books will typically use a 30
or 40-cent line with low wagering limits to protect themselves.
With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it's not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. We actually have several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on
our props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting towards the original price).
Last week, we discussed the "Pinnacle lean". While this is mainly useful for measuring market prices on sides and totals, it can be used on props as well. For example, if we offered a theoretical prop, "Will Indianapolis
score first?" at Yes -130/No +114, this would suggest that the no-vig price based on our 16 cent line is -122/+122. You can "play the lean" if you find another book with the Yes at -121, or the No at +123.
But you don't have to wait until Monday for some exciting action with some great match-ups in both pro and college football like the games listed below. And remember, if you check out www.pinnaclesports.com on the
weekend, you will find props available on all of these games too.
Miami (+6.5) at Virginia Tech
Miami dropped its first game of the year at Florida State 10-7, and has since gone on a 6-0 run winning by an average of 23.3 points. Tech is 8-0, winning by an average of 27.7 points per game. The Hurricanes and the
Hokies are ranked #1 and #2 in total yards allowed on defense, respectively. Tech has won the last two meetings between these teams with Miami winning three straight before that. Both teams are in the BCS
hunt, with Tech ranked 3rd and Miami 6th. A decisive win with a Texas or USC loss could put either team in the National Championship hunt.
We opened the game at +6.5 flat and saw early dog money as the line eased to +6. We were then played back the other way with many regular players laying -104 and taking -6. Since moving back to +6.5 we have seen moderate two-way action both in terms of the volume and the amount of wagers accepted.
Tennessee (+8.5) at Notre Dame
This is a match-up of two teams headed in opposite directions. In Charlie Weis's first year as Notre Dame's head coach, he has completely overhauled their offense, elevating their offensive production to 37.9 points per game. With an offensive attack that changed markedly from week-to-week,
the Fighting Irish have started the season 5-2.
The Volunteers are a disappointing 3-4 on the year (compared to a 10-3 record last season) with solid defense, but a lackluster offensive production. In Tennessee's four losses, it scored an average of less
than 10 points per game.
We are seeing a large volume on this game, with a moderate amount of point buying/selling towards the 7. Of our bigger players, the sharper money is on the Irish, though there is opposition. The unopposed action on this
game is on the under and we're currently dealing under 50 -108.
Indianapolis (-3) at New England
The Colts had a bye week to prepare for this match-up and will be hoping to avenge last year's season ending AFC playoff loss. A common misconception is that bye weeks help teams the following week. From 1995
to 2004, teams went 143-157-9 ATS after a bye. Totals also had a significant impact after a bye week with the under hitting at a rate of 158-142-9.
We opened the game with the Colts favored by -3 and took a lot of large hits on Indianapolis. At the time of writing, the sharps and larger players are lined up on Peyton Manning and the Colts, while only the
scalpers are playing the Patriots.
Carolina (-1) at Tampa Bay
Tampa was upset by San Francisco last week due in part to the loss of starting QB Brian Griese. Ten-year veteran defensive end Simeon Rice (with 3 Pro-Bowl selections) also missed the game for disciplinary reasons but is expected to play this week. If the Buccaneer's offense flounders under backup QB Chris Simms, it will have to rely on its defense - ranked #1 in the league allowing 229.7 yards per game - to save the day.
The Panthers are on a hot streak at the moment having won their last four games. Carolina has played a lot of close games (five this season were decided by 4 points or less) and if the spread is any indication, this
will be another tight, low-scoring game.
We opened the game as a Pick'em and saw moderate two-way action. The market has drifted towards Carolina -1 but the sharps are mostly staying off this game, although a few are on Tampa Bay.
Pinnacle Pulse
October 26, 2005
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
Every month or so, I see a thread in the forums about playing the "Pinnacle Lean" - where we offer a line on a game that is slightly off market price. For example on Tuesday we had New England favored by 9.5 points over Buffalo while the market was offering the Patriots at -8.5 and -9. Does this mean that we have an opinion on the game and are trying to lure Buffalo money? Not really.
At Pinnacle Sports we rarely take positions on games. Instead these off-market prices are the result of sharps placing large wagers with us. In the New England game, we had unopposed sharp money on New England at -8.5 and -9. On the NFL - although our minimum stake amount is just $1 - we normally accept bets of up to $30,000 per wager online with -104 pricing that offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other sports books.
This means that players of all levels can get their bets down at high limits and great odds at Pinnacle Sports. As we are attempting to attract balanced action, the sharps can sometimes even get two maximum limit bets on their chosen team before our line moves enough to discourage them. When the line moves on a game - it always happens first at PinnacleSports.com.
As you can imagine, our reduced juice pricing generates tremendous volume, making the line and odds we offer the result of an efficient market. Traditional sports books with higher juice receive far less volume and their prices are not efficient measures of the true market price. If you want to know what the "fair" market price on a game is, simply check our line one hour before kickoff.
How can you use this information to make money in the long run? Simply play any number that's too far off of ours, safe in the knowledge that our line is a true indicator of what the market believes the number should be. In the NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB you will be a long-term winner if you consistently find an off-market spread or total which is 1.5 points better than our price. Each weekend you will usually find a handful of games where there's this potential especially with totals in college football and basketball.
If another sports book has a number that is a full 2 points off, you can usually scalp it against Pinnacle's number with point-selling. Savvy bettors typically play as much of that bad number as possible and scalp most of it back at Pinnacle (leaving the equivalent of a small play on the bad number) for a low or no risk return.
This technique of playing off market numbers shouldn't be confused with chasing "steam", which is a bad bet in the long run. If a line moves more than 1.5 points in an hour, the movement is called "steam" and people betting in the direction of the move are making "steam plays". If you don't know why a number is moving fast, it's better to pass unless you can find and play at the original number before the line moved elsewhere in the market.
When there is a big steam play, there are two groups who profit: the originators/first takers who caused the steam and those that switch sides after the line movement (often the first takers). The players taking a number 1 to 1.5 points worse than the first takers are likely to lose in the long run.
For more inside information on this week's line moves, let's take a look at some of the biggest early movers of the week.
Georgia (+4) at Florida
Georgia's starting QB DJ Shockley is expected to miss the game due to a sprained knee and Joe Tereshinski will be making his first collegiate start. He will be leading a Bulldogs offense which relies heavily on the pass - rushing accounts for only 40% of Georgia's offense. Additionally, the Gators have had the benefit of a bye week.
This was a difficult line to set - if Shockley was healthy and Florida had no bye week, we would probably have opened the game around a Pick'em. As it is, we initially opened at +5.5 and were flooded with early sharp bettors taking the dog. We started to see some buyback on Florida at -4.5 and the line has since stabilized at +4.
Arizona (+8.5) at Oregon State
Arizona is 1-5 on the year with its only win against Northern Arizona, a Div I-AA team. The Wildcats problem has been an error-prone offense that gave up five turnovers last week and has lost 21 turnovers in its first six games. With nearly a third of its offensive possessions terminated by turnovers, their defense has allowed 30 points per game against Div-I opponents.
Arizona can make this match-up competitive as four of its six losses have been by 7 points or less. Oregon St. has its own defensive problems, allowing 36 points per game despite having a 4-3 record. If Arizona can protect the ball this might be a close, high-scoring game.
We opened the Beavers as a 7.5 point favorite and saw Oregon State money all the way at a ratio of four bets on the Beavers for every one on the Wildcats as the line pushed out to -9. At the time, a lot of sharps were playing the favorite early and buying the spread down to -7. We have seen some buy back on Arizona and the line has now settled at -8.5.
Philadelphia (+3.5) at Denver Broncos
On paper, Philadelphia looks the better team. The Eagles offense nets 15 yards per game more than the Broncos and the Philadelphia defense allows 9 yards per game less. The Eagles outscore their opponents by an average of 4 points per game, compared to 3 for Denver. If the Eagles are one point better on a neutral field, why are they a 3.5 point underdog?
Home teams have done freakishly well this year. The average home field advantage this season has been over 5 points compared to about 3 points historically. Bettors believe the home field advantage will continue to be larger and are backing their opinions with cash.
We opened this game at Denver -3 -117 and took some minor two-way action before seeing large sharp money on the Broncos. Once we moved to -3.5 we started receiving moderate two-way action with slightly more bets on the Eagles.
Green Bay (+9.5) at Cincinnati Bengals.
In the past, sharps have always loved bad teams getting lots of points. In the 90's, you could make money year after year betting every "big dog" at +7.5 or higher. This year, these dogs aren't biting and are 4-8 against the spread. They did poorly last year too, so what gives?
First, the lines have become tighter due to all of the sharps playing on the Internet. Your average big underdog gets about a full point less than they did in the 90's. Second, we have two extraordinarily bad teams in Houston and San Francisco who are a combined 1-5 against the spread when playing as a big dog.
This game opened at -7, where we took almost all Bengals money. The line has now been pushed out to -9.5 where we are seeing two-way action with some sharp players playing Green Bay by buying up to +10 and +10.5.
Pinnacle Pulse
October 19, 2005
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
In previous columns we have looked at some techniques that sharper
players use such as shopping for the best price when they bet. There are also
many ways to recognize a "square" player by the actions they take that simply
aren't profitable in the long-run. By knowing what these common mistakes
are and why, it will hopefully help you avoid them with your own
betting.
Some players seem to find the most ingenious ways to lose money. One of
the most popular bad-bets involves teasers. Last week, we discussed
"wiseguy" teasers where you tease an NFL team across the "3" and "7". A
"square" teaser is where someone teases two teams in the same game.
Consider the game Detroit (+2.5) at Cleveland (-2.5). If you tease both
teams by six points, you have "Detroit +8.5 and Cleveland +3.5". The
problem is that these two plays are anti-correlated. If you believe that
Detroit +8.5 will cover, Cleveland +3.5 is much less likely to cover.
Where most two-team teasers will win at a rate close to 50%, by teasing
two teams in the same game a player will reduce their hit rate down
closer to 40%.
What you'll also find is that newer players will often sign-up at a book
just for a bonus. They play for a while and then move onto another high
juice recreational book to chase another bonus. But how much of these
bonuses does a player really keep and how does the rollover work?
If you post up $1,000 for a 10% deposit bonus worth $100, you will be
credited with $1,100. The sports book will then expect you to "rollover"
that deposit plus the amount of bonus a set number of times. If a book
has a "3x rollover" requirement, you are expected to make $3,300 in bets
(your deposit of $1,000 plus the $100 bonus, multiplied by 3) before you can
earn your bonus. Until you do that, the bonus is "unearned" and
withdrawing money typically forfeits that bonus.
A traditional sports book can offer a bonus because they expect to win a
lot of it back. If you made $50 bets on NFL sides until you met your
rollover requirement (risking $55 to win $50), you would expect to win
33 wagers and lose another 33 wagers. You would be down the $5 vigorish on
each of these 33 bets or $165 (33 * $5). Even after earning your $100
bonus you're still down $65!
New customers at Pinnacle Sports also receive a 10% sign-up bonus but if
you made those same bets at Pinnacle, our reduced juice means you are
only risking $52 to win $50. Making the same 66 bets, you would still be in
profit on the bonus and paying just $66 (33 * $2) in juice instead of it
costing you $165.
Bonus chasing at books doesn't make sense. While the bonus may help pay
for the extra juice, not only are you out of pocket after fulfilling
your rollover requirements at a traditional bookmaker, but do you really want
the hassle of jumping from one book to the next?
By playing at a reduced juice book like Pinnacle Sports you'll receive a
sign-up bonus that is actually worth something and our reduced juice
lines offer up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other books, regardless
of your rollover.
And now to the games.
Texas Tech (+15.5) at Texas
Both teams are 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the Big 12. Both teams' offenses
appear statistically insane with Tech averaging 53.7 points per game and
573 yards of offense, while Texas averages 46.7 points and 494.5 yards
per game. However, there are a couple of big differences between the
in-state rivals.
First, Texas has the #1 pass defense in the Big 12, allowing under 148
passing yards per game. Second, Tech's schedule has been much easier
thus far - games against Florida International, Sam Houston State, and
Indiana State have inflated their statistics. By comparison, Sagarin rates
Tech's schedule as the 138th most difficult in the nation compared to 46th for
Texas.
This week, we opened this game at Texas -12 and got pounded by Texas
backers. Within four minutes we were at -14. We are still seeing mostly
Longhorn money, but the line is stabilizing near 15.5/16. Interestingly,
we started taking action on this game in July when we opened it as one
of our Marquee match-ups. At that time, we opened it at +10.5 and Tech
backers pushed the line down to 9.5.
Auburn (+6.5) at LSU
The last five meetings between these two teams have been won by the home
team and only one of those was decided by less than 13 points. Both
teams have one loss, but LSU has played stronger teams, overcoming Florida and
Arizona State (while losing to Tennessee). We opened the game on Sunday
at +6.5 and have been taking heavy, balanced action ever since.
As another game that was featured as one of our College Football Marquee
match-ups in July, we opened the line at -6 (-105) and took balanced
action then as well. There has been little in way of line movement since
then and it seems as though our opener was strong.
Baltimore at Chicago O/U 30.5
There has only been one NFL game in the last 20 years that closed with a
total under 31. In 1994, Chicago defeated Arizona 19-16 when the game
had a total of 30.5. As of Wednesday morning, the under is priced at 30.5
-111. Why is this game so low?
From a yards per play analysis, Baltimore and Chicago have the #1 and #2
defenses allowing approximately 4.3 yards per play each. Offensively,
they rate #29 and #26 respectively with 4.1 and 4.7 yards per play. Both have
rushed for more than 100 yards per game. Combine outstanding defenses
with poor rush-based offenses and you get the lowest game total of all time.
What is the lowest scoring NFL game in the last 20 years? In 2003, the
Jets beat the Steelers 6-0 (with a total of 38.5).
We opened this game at 32 flat and immediately saw sharp action on the
under. We had some smaller players taking the over at plus money selling
points. Several professional scalpers played over 30.5 (+106), but up
until now the sharps are neutral at the current number.
Indianapolis (-15) at Houston
Most sharps shudder at the thought of laying more than 7 points in the
NFL in any match-up and would rather play large dogs. I know many pros who
won't lay more than 7 points no matter how good it looks. On the other
side are the "public" bettors who are unafraid to lay any number. For
that group, Indy has been a covering machine and they are now 8-4 against the
spread in the last two years when favored by more than 7 points.
Houston is the NFL's only winless team this year. Why are they so bad?
They have averaged 3.8 yards per play compared to a league average of
5.3. In five games, Houston has allowed thirty QB sacks. This means that in a
typical twelve possessions for the Texans, 42% of these face a long
passing situation against a nickel or dime defense. These problems
combine to limit Houston to less than 11 points per game.
We opened the game at -15 and received large hits from sharps at +15 and
+14. We dealt briefly at +13 but were then flooded with Indy money. It
looks like the sharps are on Houston at +14 or higher, while the public
is favoring Indianapolis.
Pinnacle Pulse
October 11, 2005
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
A common thread that I see on many gaming forums concerns the subject of teasers. One of the generally held misconceptions is that they are sucker bets to be avoided at all costs. I've been actively involved in bookmaking for over fifteen years and it's true that I've seen players make hundreds of thousands of dollars in teaser plays when they don't know what they're buying. Part of the problem is the industry's fault - there are no consumer reports for teasers - so with that in mind, I thought I'd share my experience of teasers.
An NFL teaser is commonly a two team parlay where your chosen team gets six extra points added in your favor to its spread. So if Dallas was +2 and Pittsburgh was -7.5, your teaser wager would be a parlay on Dallas +8 and Pittsburgh -1.5. If you are betting at -110 (betting $110 to win $100), you need to win at least 52.4% of your teasers to break even. This is the same win percentage needed for to break even on normal sides bets when you lay -110 at a traditional sports book.
Since both of your selections need to win so that you can cash your ticket, each individual teaser team needs to cover 72.5% for you to break even (72.5% X 72.5% = 52.6%). So in exchange for those six extra points in your favor, when you buy a teaser you are raising your breakeven point from 52.4% to 72.5% on that one team. If you don't win that individual leg at least 20% more with those six points, don't bother teasing - you are buying something you don't need.
A common mistake I see with teasers is teasing a total. There is no total in the NFL or College that when teased six points, raises your win rate 20%. In general, teasing any total is a bad play. Fortunately one of the best ways to play a teaser is to play a spread that when teased, moves through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Teasing Dallas from +2 to +8 or Pittsburgh from -7.5 to -1.5 are two examples.
Another tool you can use in conjunction with teasers is Pinnacle Sports' "NFL Alternate High" and "NFL Alternate Low" lines. Due to our reduced juice pricing, these potentially allow you to guarantee a profit and hedge out of your position if you win the first leg of your teaser but have perhaps had a change of heart.
For instance, if you bet $100 on Dallas +8/Pittsburgh -1.5 and Dallas had already won, you could possibly bet $50 on Pittsburgh's opponent at +1.5 +250. With these lines unique to Pinnacle Sports, you can lock in a profit after the first leg of a teaser is played. You might even find situations where you can guarantee a profit no matter what the result - even before the first game kicks off - with a little line shopping.
Although there is a lot more to study when it comes to teasers, I hope that armed with these basics you can find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle Sports on all of this week's action including the games below where we have seen some interesting early line movement.
USC (-11.5) at Notre Dame
This game looks to be an offensive shootout with a total of 69.5, the highest on the board. USC goes into this game averaging 51.6 points per game while Notre Dame has averaged 37 points per game. Despite the Trojans prolific offense, it has had difficulties the last three weeks being down in the second half against Oregon and Arizona St. and had only a 7-pt lead over Arizona at one point in the 4th quarter last week. The Fighting Irish are coming off a bye-week following routs of Purdue (49-28) and Washington (36-17).
We opened the game at -11 and saw early favorite money that pushed the line out to -13.5. A day later, we started getting sharp money on Notre Dame as the line dropped back to -12. There is opposition at ND +12 +101 / USC -11.5 -105, which is something we love to see on what will be our largest grossing college game of the week.
Florida (+6) at LSU
While Florida and LSU have a combined record of 8-2, each team has faced extraordinary challenges this season. Gators' QB Chris Leak injured his shoulder several weeks ago en route to a 31-3 loss and has continued to struggle ever since. Four Florida receivers are also suffering from injuries -Caldwell and Cornelius didn't play last week and Jackson and Baker missed game time. Meanwhile, LSU has had its own problems. In four games, it has turned the ball over 11 times and been penalized 88.5 yards per game (versus opponents' 53.5 yards per game). Like Florida, its offense has been repeatedly bailed out by its defense.
We opened the game at +6.5 and immediately took limit bets on LSU from sharp money. We later received more action the other way as the number stabilized at +6. Despite writing an above average volume on this game, we had written four times as much on the USC-ND game at the time of writing.
Minnesota (+3) at Chicago
The Vikings have averaged over 50 yards of offense per game more than Chicago but have had a problem with self-destructing. In four games, they've thrown ten interceptions, lost five fumbles and managed a -8 turnover differential. The team that wins a turnover battle in a game wins outright 77% of the time, so it should come as no surprise that Minnesota is 1-3.
We initially opened this at +1.5. The early money was on the Bears, driving the price to +3 -111. At this point, there was opposition between two syndicates with orders going out on the Vikings +3 and an unnamed group that's already beaten us out of $1.5m this year taking Chicago. This will probably be our highest volume NFL game thanks to this dueling syndicate action.
St. Louis (+13.5) at Indianapolis
Some players handicap using trend analysis. A big favorite before 2003 was "Home dogs receiving more than seven points". This group was systematically overpriced and playing the dog covered at roughly a 60% clip. However, with the advent of the Internet and increasingly sophisticated players, the offshore books have tightened the lines.
For "big dog" system followers, Indianapolis has been a player's worst nightmare. During the past year and through the first five weeks of 2005, Indianapolis is 7-4 against the spread if favored by more than seven points. If you find a trend you like, be careful about betting it blindly.
We opened the game at -13 and were quickly driven to -13.5 by syndicate play. This is our highest grossing game in the first 48 hours since posting lines; mostly on Indianapolis. This is still early though and syndicates sometimes bet the wrong side early in the week - especially near key numbers. They do this as the market size is smaller earlier in the week and if they can drive the price to +14 or thereabouts for a minimal investment. They can then take back St. Louis later when the market can absorb $1m at a number. In such situations, syndicates would consider the initial outlay a "free play" due to the equity in the middle.
About PinnacleSports.com
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