Denver started the season going to Buffalo and winning by a point and then beat the Raiders at home in Overtime when Jankowski missed a long field goal after Shanahan called time-out at the last second. In both games the Broncos out-statted their opponents. They then drop three in a row against worthy competition before beating the Steelers last week at home on Sunday night. That was the first game Denver covered all year.
The Denver pass defense is quite interesting. If you only look at the yards passing allowed by their defense you would see Denver leading the league. However, if you looked at the percentage of passes completed you would see Denver tied for last at a horrible 67.4% rate. Look at pass yards per attempt allowed, Denver is 28th. The Pittsburgh tight ends ate up Denver last week. The Denver safeties are showing their age and the Bronco linebackers aren’t providing good pass defense. CB Champ Bailey didn’t play last week but he did practice Saturday so he should go tonight.
But, why pass against the Broncos when you can run on them! Denver is the worst in the league stopping the run. Unfortunately, Green Bay doesn’t run the ball very well. The Pack does get back their injured center Scott Wells who calls their offensive line signals. The problem Green Bay has had is their second-year guards nor tackles are picking up the zone-blocking scheme they have been trying to implement.
The Packers have covered both of their road games this year. Favre did look more his age in the last game against Washington, a 17-14 home win before they took the week off. Denver is still smarting over the loss of their center for the entire year and will be without Javon Walker tonight.
One of the stronger trends in football is how a team does after a bye week. Over the past ten years, teams who won their last game before a bye and are now on the road after their week off cover only 33% of the time assuming they are a dog. Obviously this favors Denver as does the Packers recent 3-10 SU record versus the AFC.
Without looking at past systems, I would like the Packers tonight. Systems are only a guide to how things have gone in this type of situation in the past. Systems obviously don’t always work as evidenced by yesterday’s disastrous pick on the 49ers which had some very strong systems favoring San Francisco.
However, I am going to honor the strong bye system mentioned above and not play the Packers so the game tonight is a bye for me.
GL,
JK
