Hello,
I am officially passing on tonight's game. However, I have a small lean on the side and a slightly smaller one on the total. (If I win the side, I will probably win the total.)
Peyton Manning is 8-0 on Monday Night Football. The Colts are off of a bye week. Road favorites off of a bye historically have done well. However, there is not a large enough sample size to gauge how well they do on Monday Night Football. I like Jacksonville’s defense, they haven’t allowed more than 17 points a game. However, Indy and Manning are a quantum leap above three of the passing attacks Jax has faced this year in Atlanta, Tennessee, and Kansas City.
The Jags have one, if not the best, running attacks in the league and the Colts can be hurt on the ground as evidenced by Denver's 223 rushing yards against Indy.
I have some minor database trends which say to play the UNDER. This makes sense if Jacksonville is able to keep the Colts’ offense off the field by controlling the ball with the ground game.
It is easy to like Jacksonville. They have a very good 21-13 ATS record as underdogs under coach Jack Del Rio. However, I have some database trends which favor the Colts as well as the Jags.
This game should mean more to Jacksonville than Indianapolis as the Jags next three games are on the road. A loss tonight would hurt the Jags more than a loss would mean to the Colts. I am going to make a small wager on Jacksonville and a slightly smaller bet on the UNDER. However, if you believe the Colts are going to win, I would not bet the UNDER.
GL,
JK
