Navy at Pittsburgh
Last week Pitt got crushed by Virginia, 44-14, a figure that almost doubles the Cav’s best scoring output so far this season. Pitt is lead, if one can call it that, by one of the worst coaches in college football, Dave Wannstedt. Wannstedt has a sad 5-10 against the spread record against teams with a winning record. Navy qualifies with a 3-2 mark.
The Pitt offense is one of the worst in the nation. They have averaged a hair less than fourteen points the past three games. They are lacking in playmakers and can’t sustain any drives. The Panthers also were guilty of 11 penalties for a whopping 139 yards last week. This is a team with very little focus. They have talent, it just hasn’t come together.
Pitt is now being led by their quarterback of the future, true freshman Patrick Bostick. While offensively the Panthers are challenged, the one area of strength for them is their rushing defense. On a true rushing yards per carry (not subtracting sacks from rushing yardage), Pitt ranks 15th in the nation.
Considering Navy is last in the nation in pass offense not even getting over 100 yards per game, there is hope for Pittsburgh if they can stop the Middies rushing attack. Also, add to the fact that Navy is 107th in the nation in passing yardage allowed, and this could be the coming out party for highly-touted Bostick.
This is a difficult game for me to bet on. The only side I would consider is Navy. The job coach Paul Johnson has done at Navy is superb. They are 13-5 ATS as an underdog, 14-2 ATS if their opponent is off of back to back losses, and 30-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Pitt is at the crossroads. If they lose tonight they can write a bowl game off. Navy still has enough winnable games ahead. Pitt did get a few extra days to prepare for the Navy option.
I have a very small lean to Navy but will only have a very small bet on the Middies.
