Well, you look at this one on paper and the only team you can bet on is Dallas.  They are 4-0, Buffalo is 1-3.  Buffalo ranks 31st in scoring offense, averaging just 10.3 points.  Dallas is at the opposite end of that spectrum leading the league in scoring averaging a league-best 37.8 points. Dallas has scored at least 34 points in each game this year.   

This well-oiled offense is going against a Bills’ defense that has seen five starters go down to injuries.  The good news for Cowboy fans is they are starting to get healthier with CB Terrence Newman and LB Greg Ellis back playing.

There has been a big difference in quality of opponents each team has played this year.  Dallas foes have a combine won-loss record of 5-15 so far this year with two of those being amongst the four worst teams in the NFL.  Buffalo’s opponents have a combined record of 12-8 with two of those teams probably being among the top four teams in the league.

The projected final score using the current line is about Dallas 28-17 over Buffalo.  I will be more surprised if Buffalo goes past 17 than I would if Dallas eclipses 28. 

Dallas has New England on deck.  This is the first Monday Night Football game in Buffalo since 1994.  Dallas is due for a lackluster game.  I don’t care if it is MNF, teams do have letdown games on Monday night.  Especially if they are on the road and have been very successful recently.  Add in the fact that the Cowboys have what is probably their biggest game of the season next week, and yes, a less than 100% performance is possible. 

Home MNF dogs with a total lined at 44.5 or higher are a very bad bet only covering 3 of 14 games over the past ten years.  For me, Dallas is the only side but I would only make a recreational (meaning very small) bet on the ‘Boys.  The lowest risk wager in my opinion is the UNDER but I would hold out for a 47 (the second most key totals number) and definitely not play it UNDER below 46.  However, the injuries to the Buffalo defense make this a small wager at best.