Monday, 01 October 2007
I do not have a premium play on tonight's game, nor even a "free pick". I do have an opinion on the side and total.
There is an interesting dynamic in tonight’s Monday Night Football game. When a team has two MNF Home Games scheduled in the same season, historically they have gone 19-12-1 for 61%. If a team has two MNF games in the same season and both of them are away, they have historically only covered at a 29% rate, 12-30-1.
Cincinnati falls into the first category, New England is in the second. The Bengals won and covered in their first MNF game in Week 1 against Baltimore. This is the Patriots first Monday Night game this year. So, if you believe this historical trend is valid, you would be on the Bengals.
In my opinion, this is a trend that I am going to ignore. New England appears to be head and shoulders at the top of the pecking order in the NFL. They have punted only four times so far this season. The Pats beat the Bengals by 25 points last year at Cincinnati. I don’t believe the Bengals have improved that much to risk putting money on them. The Bengals are without running back Rudi Johnson tonight and will start Kenny Watson in his place. If you are wondering who Kenny Watson is, don’t worry, he hasn’t started a game since 2002.
The Bengals have been successful over the past few years creating turnovers. Their luck might run out as last year New England was +10 in turnovers. New England ranks as the second best offense in the NFL along with the best overall team defense. Their average margin of victory this year has been 27 points. Brady has a ratio of 10 TD’s to 1 INT. Okay, perhaps the Patriots haven’t been tested yet, but is Cincy the team to do so?
Carson Palmer is a dangerous passer and he has some very good receivers. The Bengals will have to really work the home dog Monday Night magic on New England to get the cover let alone win the game. Anything can happen on MNF, I don’t want to step in front of the Patriots train and I don’t want the Bengals. I don’t want to play the OVER as it is too high of number for me with such a good defensive team as the Patriots. I have placed a VERY SMALL bet on the UNDER 54 as Cincy is 7-3 UNDER in their last 10 games and 6-1 UNDER as a home dog in this price range. If I HAD to make a bet on the side, I would buy down to -7 on the Patriots.
