The most improvement in a college football team comes between week 1 and week 2. Of course I am making an assumption there is improvement. A good handicapper is able to sniff out which teams are overrated, getting too much respect from the linesmaker and the public, and which ones are underrated. Early in the season is the best time to uncover the incorrectly valued teams that can lead to getting off to a very profitable first few weeks.
In the case of the University of Michigan, a team I went against this past week, there was no chance they would show improvement. After going 11-1 last year, how do you think RB Mike Hart, QB Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham feel after bypassing last year’s NFL draft to come back their senior season to “win the national championship”? The Wolverines should be stuck with the proverbial fork as the team’s dreams have been shattered. Ann Arbor is on suicide watch.
The AP and the Coaches Polls both are giving Wisconsin too much credit. At least both polls dropped the Badgers from fifth to seventh this week after their poor showing against UNLV as almost a four touchdown favorite. I have been a UNLV season ticket holder for the eight years I have lived in Las Vegas and while this was the most inspired Rebel team I have ever seen perform in person, one has to remember this is a team that has only won two games each of the past two years.
A redshirt freshman, Travis Dixon, is quarterbacking the Rebels as their highly touted USC transfer, Rocky Hinds, has been unable to return this year due to offseason knee surgery.
This UNLV freshman passed for 258 yards completing 22 of 33 attempts, against the then-firth-ranked Badgers.
The UNLV defense, which has numerous freshmen and sophomores in the two-deep rotation, held up very well while being overmatched physically. The total yardage for both teams was fairly close and unlike the situation in many dramatic upsets or near-upsets, Wisconsin committed no turnovers. While I love the fans of Wisconsin (they pump a lot of money into the Las Vegas economy on their visits out here), the Badgers will be a team I am looking to go against.
When I lived in Kansas City, I used to date a girl who graduated from Notre Dame. Years ago she asked me to go with her to her college reunion. The reunions at Notre Dame are kind of neat as the classes from every five-years are all invited to the same reunion so you get a wide-range of ages at the reunions. While there were many prominent former Irish football players at the reunion, the guy I enjoyed the most was the late Leon Hart, the 1949 Heisman Trophy winner. We sat at a dinner table with Mr. Hart and his wife. He was a real character. He holds the distinction of being the only lineman to win three National Titles in both college and the pros. Hart was the last and one of only two lineman ever to win the Heisman Trophy. (yeah, I am a former lineman. Granted, it was only at the high school level, but linemen relate to one another).
Sorry for the regression, just reliving fond memories.
Well, enough blabbing about Notre Dame. Let’s just leave it at South Bend, Indiana has joined Ann Arbor on the “don’t drink the Kool-Aid’ watch.
Finding an undervalued team early is just as important as discovering the inflated expectations of
some teams. When you can find both meeting head to head, you have the perfect storm. Such an incident happened last week when South Carolina traveled to Athens, GA to play the Bulldogs. The Gamecocks, a pick of mine last week, have one of the best defenses in the nation. They have a very fine quarterback and a coach that is the master of revenge, Steve Spurrier.
Georgia played Oklahoma State at home last week. They handled the high-octane Cowboy offense very well. But the fact remains, the Bulldogs had 12 first-time starters including eight on defense and are a young team. Did Georgia deserve a close to top ten ranking with South Carolina not even in the Top 25? Yes, it’s easy to state this after the results are in, but the fact remains that I took the Gamecocks because I felt the better team was the underdog.
I also like to look at situational handicapping spots, Even though it is a small sample, a basic angle I uncovered is road teams in game #3 that have been on the road the first two weeks and who are also on the road next week only cover at a 16.7% rate over the past six years. This situation applies to San Jose State visiting Stanford this week.
