Denver started the season going to Buffalo and winning by a point and then beat the Raiders at home in Overtime when Jankowski missed a long field goal after Shanahan called time-out at the last second.  In both games the Broncos out-statted their opponents.  They then drop three in a row against worthy competition before beating the Steelers last week at home on Sunday night.  That was the first game Denver covered all year.

 

The Denver pass defense is quite interesting.  If you only look at the yards passing allowed by their defense you would see Denver leading the league.  However, if you looked at the percentage of passes completed you would see Denver tied for last at a horrible 67.4% rate.  Look at pass yards per attempt allowed, Denver is 28^th.  The Pittsburgh tight ends ate up Denver last week.   The Denver safeties are showing their age and the Bronco linebackers aren’t providing good pass defense.  CB Champ Bailey didn’t play last week but he did practice Saturday so he should go tonight.

But, why pass against the Broncos when you can run on them!  Denver is the worst in the league stopping the run.  Unfortunately,  Green Bay doesn’t run the ball very well.  The Pack does get back their injured center Scott Wells who calls their offensive line signals.  The problem Green Bay has had is their second-year guards nor tackles are picking up the zone-blocking scheme they have been trying to implement. 

 

The Packers have covered both of their road games this year.  Favre did look more his age in the last game against Washington, a 17-14 home win before they took the week off.    Denver is still smarting over the loss of their center for the entire year and will be without Javon Walker tonight.

 

One of the stronger trends in football is how a team does after a bye week.  Over the past ten years, teams who won their last game before a bye and are now on the road after their week off cover only 33% of the time assuming they are a dog.  Obviously this favors Denver as does the Packers recent 3-10 SU record versus the AFC. 

Without looking at past systems, I would like the Packers tonight.  Systems are only a guide to how things have gone in this type of situation in the past.  Systems obviously don’t always work as evidenced by yesterday’s disastrous pick on the 49ers which had some very strong systems favoring San Francisco.

However, I am going to honor the strong bye system mentioned above and not play the Packers so the game tonight is a bye for me.

 

GL,

JK

Peyton Manning is 8-0 on Monday Night Football.  The Colts are off of a bye week.  Road favorites off of a bye historically have done well.  However, there is not a large enough sample size to gauge how well they do on Monday Night Football.  I like Jacksonville’s defense, they haven’t allowed more than 17 points a game.  However, Indy and Manning are a quantum leap above three of the passing attacks Jax has faced this year in Atlanta, Tennessee, and Kansas City.

The Jags have one, if not the best, running attacks in the league and the Colts can be hurt on the ground as evidenced by Denver's 223 rushing yards against Indy. 

 

New York is off of three straight-up wins where they also covered the spread.  Atlanta lost last week by seven to Tennessee.  The Falcons have had problems scoring and have yet to rush for over 100 yards in a game. 

 

The Falcon offensive line is hurting with its two starting offensive tackles out.  Two non-drafted free-agents will be starting at each OT tonight, one a true rookie and the other a second-year player.  The Giant pass rush which mad Donovan McNabb’s life tough a couple of weeks ago has to be excited about the prospects of nailing the Falcon QB tonight.

 

I have some strong database trends that say to take the OVER tonight and some not quite as strong that says to take the Giants.

I have a small bet on the Giants at -4 and on the OVER 43.5.  I didn’t make the OVER a premium pick due to the offensive struggles of Atlanta.  You have to think the world is on the Giants tonight, sometimes a precarious situation. 

 

GL,

JK

 

Navy at Pittsburgh

Last week Pitt got crushed by Virginia, 44-14, a figure that almost doubles the Cav’s best scoring output so far this season.  Pitt is lead, if one can call it that, by one of the worst coaches in college football, Dave Wannstedt.  Wannstedt has a sad 5-10 against the spread record against teams with a winning record.  Navy qualifies with a  3-2 mark. 

The Pitt offense is one of the worst in the nation.  They have averaged a hair less than fourteen points the past three games.  They are lacking in playmakers and can’t sustain any drives.  The Panthers also were guilty of 11 penalties for a whopping 139 yards last week.  This is a team with very little focus.  They have talent, it just hasn’t come together.

Pitt is now being led by their quarterback of the future, true freshman Patrick Bostick.  While offensively the Panthers are challenged, the one area of strength for them is their rushing defense.  On a true rushing yards per carry (not subtracting sacks from rushing yardage), Pitt ranks 15^th in the nation. 

Considering Navy is last in the nation in pass offense not even getting over 100 yards per game, there is hope for Pittsburgh if they can stop the Middies rushing attack.  Also, add to the fact that Navy is 107^th in the nation in passing yardage allowed, and this could be the coming out party for highly-touted Bostick.

This is a difficult game for me to bet on.  The only side I would consider is Navy.  The job coach Paul Johnson has done at Navy is superb.  They are 13-5 ATS as an underdog, 14-2 ATS if their opponent is off of back to back losses, and 30-12 ATS as a road underdog.  

Pitt is at the crossroads.  If they lose tonight they can write a bowl game off.  Navy still has enough winnable games ahead.  Pitt did get a few extra days to prepare for the Navy option. 

I have a very small lean to Navy but will only have a very small bet on the Middies.

Well, you look at this one on paper and the only team you can bet on is Dallas.  They are 4-0, Buffalo is 1-3.  Buffalo ranks 31st in scoring offense, averaging just 10.3 points.  Dallas is at the opposite end of that spectrum leading the league in scoring averaging a league-best 37.8 points. Dallas has scored at least 34 points in each game this year.   

This well-oiled offense is going against a Bills’ defense that has seen five starters go down to injuries.  The good news for Cowboy fans is they are starting to get healthier with CB Terrence Newman and LB Greg Ellis back playing.

There has been a big difference in quality of opponents each team has played this year.  Dallas foes have a combine won-loss record of 5-15 so far this year with two of those being amongst the four worst teams in the NFL.  Buffalo’s opponents have a combined record of 12-8 with two of those teams probably being among the top four teams in the league.

The projected final score using the current line is about Dallas 28-17 over Buffalo.  I will be more surprised if Buffalo goes past 17 than I would if Dallas eclipses 28. 

Dallas has New England on deck.  This is the first Monday Night Football game in Buffalo since 1994.  Dallas is due for a lackluster game.  I don’t care if it is MNF, teams do have letdown games on Monday night.  Especially if they are on the road and have been very successful recently.  Add in the fact that the Cowboys have what is probably their biggest game of the season next week, and yes, a less than 100% performance is possible. 

Home MNF dogs with a total lined at 44.5 or higher are a very bad bet only covering 3 of 14 games over the past ten years.  For me, Dallas is the only side but I would only make a recreational (meaning very small) bet on the ‘Boys.  The lowest risk wager in my opinion is the UNDER but I would hold out for a 47 (the second most key totals number) and definitely not play it UNDER below 46.  However, the injuries to the Buffalo defense make this a small wager at best.

In last years match-up between New Mexico State and Boise State, Aggie quarterback Chase Holbrook threw for a season-high 526 yards and two touchdown passes, but New Mexico State fell to then No. 18 Boise State, 40-28.

It was an unusual game in which NM State spotted the Broncos a 21-point lead in the first quarter.  Despite the early deficit, the Aggies continued to fight and actually outscored Boise State 28-19 over the final three quarters of the game.

The big problem is the status of NMS QB Holbrook is unknown due to his sore ribs.  He might play, he might not.  It is a game-time decision.   If Holbrook doesn’t play, his replacement is true freshman, JJ McDermott, who has thrown 11 passes this year for 17 yards with one INT.

Turnovers have been a big problem for pass-happy NM State this year.  They are last in the WAC with a net of -10 this year. 

Without Holbrook, hard to see NM State standing much of a chance.  If Holbrook does start, how healthy will he be and how long will he last?  New Mexico State is 4-15 ATS in conference road games.  They also have one of the poorer pass defenses in the nation ranking 87^th in pass defense efficiency to Boise State’s fine 21^st ranking.

I have a lean to Boise State and laying the 24.5 points and have placed a small wager on Boise.

I cannot back Utah at this time.  They are a team that wallops UCLA 44-6 and then comes to UNLV and gets shut out, 27-0.  They are offensively challenged gaining only 304 yards per game this year as compared to a 368 yard average last year.  Against Utah State, one of the weakest teams in the nation, the Utes could only muster 325 yards,  This is the lowest anybody has gained against Utah State this year.

On the other side of the ball is Louisville, a very good offensive team with a terrible defense.  However, looking more closely at Louisville, they lost to Kentucky while only rushing for 101 yards, then the next week lost to Syracuse only rushing for 73 yards.  Neither of those teams is even a defensive middle-of-the-road team.  They did rush for 247 yards last week against NC State.  The Wolfpack, one of the worst offensive teams in the country, was able to pass for 249 yards against the Cardinals.  That was the lowest yardage Louisville has allowed so far this year through the air. 

Utah could be coming back to last year’s offensive form.  Brian Johnson, the MWC player of the year a few years ago, started last week and should be shaking some of the rust off from missing all of last year and missing a couple of starts this year.  Darrell Mack has shown some prowess at running back the past three games.  Can Utah stop the run.  Against UNLV, Rebel running back Frank Summers looked like Jim Brown literally running over Utes all day long. 

Gun to my head says to take the Utes and the points.  If Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse can average 40 points against Louisville, maybe this is the team Utah needs to play to get their offense clicking.  This has not been the same Louisville team we knew from last year. 

No premium play for me on this game.

I do not have a premium play on tonight's game, nor even a "free pick".  I do have an opinion on the side and total.

There is an interesting dynamic in tonight’s Monday Night Football game.  When a team has two MNF Home Games scheduled in the same season, historically they have gone 19-12-1 for 61%.  If a team has two MNF games in the same season and both of them are away, they have historically only covered at a 29% rate, 12-30-1. 

Cincinnati falls into the first category, New England is in the second.  The Bengals won and covered in their first MNF game in Week 1 against Baltimore.  This is the Patriots first Monday Night game this year.  So, if you believe this historical trend is valid, you would be on the Bengals. 

In my opinion, this is a trend that I am going to ignore.  New England appears to be head and shoulders at the top of the pecking order in the NFL.  They have punted only four times so far this season.  The Pats beat the Bengals by 25 points last year at Cincinnati.  I don’t believe the Bengals have improved that much to risk putting money on them.  The Bengals are without running back Rudi Johnson tonight and will start Kenny Watson in his place.  If you are wondering who Kenny Watson is, don’t worry, he hasn’t started a game since 2002. 

The Bengals have been successful over the past few years creating turnovers.  Their luck might run out as last year New England was +10 in turnovers.  New England ranks as the second best offense in the NFL along with the best overall team defense.  Their average margin of victory this year has been 27 points.  Brady has a ratio of 10 TD’s to 1 INT.  Okay, perhaps the Patriots  haven’t been tested yet, but is Cincy the team to do so? 

Carson Palmer is a dangerous passer and he has some very good receivers.  The Bengals will have to really work the home dog Monday Night magic on New England to get the cover let alone win the game.  Anything can happen on MNF, I don’t want to step in front of the Patriots train and I don’t want the Bengals.  I don’t want to play the OVER as it is too high of number for me with such a good defensive team as the Patriots.  I have placed a VERY SMALL bet on the UNDER 54 as Cincy is 7-3 UNDER in their last 10 games and 6-1 UNDER as a home dog in this price range.  If I HAD to make a bet on the side, I would buy down to -7 on the Patriots.