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Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
12-04-09
Take Central Michigan -13.5 over Ohio

A definite contrast in past histories for the two schools vying for the MAC Championship tonight. An Ohio win would give the program its first MAC Title since 1968 while this would be Central Michigan's seventh title and their third in the past four seasons.

This year Ohio's success is partially due to their turnover margin which ranks 6th in the nation. The Bobcats have swiped 19 interceptions and picked up 16 fumbles this year. The Chippewas have protected the ball well this year having given up only 13 turnovers. It's difficult to count on projecting turnovers in order to win a game, or even cover a point spread.

Everybody knows of Dan LeFevour, CMU's double-threat quarterback. LeFevour ranks ninth in the nation in passing efficiency, mainly in a short-passing attack mode. The big question mark is the health of Ohio's quarterback, Theo Scott. He tweaked his ankle in their last game and had to let freshman Tyler Tettleton finish the game. He is listed as probable but had limited practice time this past week. Without Scott, Ohio is in big trouble.

The two teams had 5 common opponents this year, both victorious in all five. However, drilling down you see an average score for the Ohio games as 29.6 to 23.2. CMU's average scores were much better, 34.4 to 15.6. In total yardage, there is a bigger difference with Ohio actually being outgained in those five matches, 385.8 to 331.6. The Chippewas gained an average of 473 yards per game while only giving up 311 versus common foes.

I like the fact that CMU has been here before and is very experienced in big games. While I hate to lay this many points in a championship game, CMU has the offensive ability to achieve a two-touchdown margin. Add in the possibility of the Bobcat's QB not being at full strength coupled with a couple of other injuries and I side with CMU.

Take Central Michigan -13.5 over Ohio

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
9-10-09
Take Clemson +6 -120 over Georgia Tech

It seems like every year Clemson is lauded over by the pundits to have a very good year and just about every year
the Tigers disappoint their fans. This year, only a few are stating Clemson will win the Atlantic Division of the ACC.
Phil Steele and USA Today are the two major Tiger backers.

Paul Johnson came from Navy to Georgia Tech bringing with him the Navy option offense while posting a 9-4 record last year. They opened up the regular season versus a FCS team, Jacksonville State, beating the Gamecocks, 37-17. JSU is a pretty good FCS squad, currently ranked 23rd in the FCS polls. However, they had a sophomore QB getting his first start as their regular QB, former LSU Tiger, Ryan Perrilloux, was out.

Clemson had a closer game against Sun Belt's Middle Tennessee State than the 37-14 final score indicates. The Tigers special teams shined returning both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns. They only outgained MTSU 361 to 299, though.

Last year these two teams met right after Tommy Bowden had been fired at Clemson with the Yellow Jackets winning as a 2 point road fave, 21-17. This has been an underdog series with the dog going 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Ten of the last 13 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less.

Clemson's strength is their offensive and defensive line. Their secondary is also top-flight but GT won't be passing that much tonight. The Tigers start a redshirt freshman QB who had a good game versus MTSU. Georgia Tech's strength is their ground game. They have three new defensive linemen so the Tigers will probably be attacking on the ground. Last year's Clemson ground game was weak, 111.5 yards per game with just a 3.4 yards per carry average. Second-team All-ACC running back, CJ Spiller, has speed to burn and is also a very good return man. He tweaked a hamstring last week and supposedly is fine for tonight's game.

Clemson did see GT's flexbone option offense last year and also spent several days in training camp and even during spring ball preparing for it. Look for Clemson's new Defensive Coordinator, Kevin Steele, to have a defensive end line up as
strong side linebacker to help fill the box against the Techsters. GT has the ACC offensive Player of the Year in
bruising 235 pound running back Jonathan Dwyer.

I am going to put a half-unit on Clemson tonight but I am going to wait to hopefully get a +6 or better. It is only a half-unit as Clemson has not done well on ESPN Thursday night games, just 1-8 SU, and I am concerned that Clemson's rushing attack, so anemic last year, hasn't improved tremendously. Also, with CJ Spiller having hurt his hamstring last week,
there is a chance he could go down this week. He is a huge weapon for the Tigers.

Take Clemson for a half-unit

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
4-26-09

Take Philadelphia + 4 over Orlando

Philadelphia has given Orlando everything that they can handle. Late in the season the 76ers faltered somewhat, partially due to the injury to forward Thaddeus Young. Philly has outshot Orlando in all three games, twice hitting over 50% of their field goals. Orlando has struggled offensively now going ten straight games without hitting 100 points in a game. Orlando’s Hedo Turkoglu isn't 100%. It is going to take another huge game from Dwight Howard for the Magic to win. Rashard Lewis is averaging 15 ppg in Round 1 and is underachieving. Philly is at home and still getting points. They are confident and Orlando has pressure on them to not go down 3 to 1.

Take Philly

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
12-28-08

Take New Orleans over Carolina

Carolina can still secure the #2 seed and NFC South title with a win in the regular season finale in New Orleans, or with unlikely help from the Rams at Atlanta. Fox’s club is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its L7 road finales and 24-11 ATS in its L35 second half games vs. teams giving up 24 or more PPG. Ironically, Carolina shares that same 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS record at New Orleans since ’01. The Saints, 8-7, are hoping to become the fourth NFC South team to finish over .500. They are 5-1 SU & ATS at the Superdome, scoring 32.7 PPG in ’08, but just 13-27 ATS in their L40 December home games. Carolina can only improve it’s seeding with a win, not as large of motivating factor as one would think. New Orleans has revenge and the desire to see Drew Brees break the NFL passing yardage record.

Take the Saints!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
11-28-08

Take Nebraska -17.5 over Colorado

Colorado ruined Nebraska’s bowl hopes last year ending the Husker’s season on a sour note with a 65 to 51 victory. Now Nebraska, 7-4, has the same opportunity to do it to Colorado, 5-6, as the Buffaloes strive to achieve bowl eligible status. There has been bad blood in the past between these two teams and it continues this weekend with words being exchanged between squads.

The Cornhuskers are off of a bye week which has given underrated quarterback Joe Ganz some extra time to rest his sore shoulder. Last year Ganz threw four interceptions and has vowed he will make up for his poor showing. Colorado under Coach Dan Hawkings is 2-16-1 ATS when they lose straight-up. Also, teams playing their last home game with rest and revenge who are coming off of a win of more than eleven points are 32-10 ATS.

Take the Huskers!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
10-1-08

Take Boise State -23.5 over Louisiana Tech

To start, there are way too many great Bronco trends on the blue turf to even think about going against Boise. There are also a bunch of bad trends on LaTech such as being 11-26-1 ATS since 2001 as an away dog. Both teams have only played three games so far this year with the Bulldogs upsetting Mississippi State in their home opener but then losing to a lethargic Kansas squad, 29-0. The LT passing attack in these two games was very poor, 26 of 74 for only 294 yards and is only completing 41%of their passes for the entire season.

LaTech beat SE Louisiana at home, 41,26, in their last game but were only ahead 28-23 at half and only outgained their Division-1AA opponent by 5 yards.

Boise beat Bowling Green at home in their second game but went completely flat in the second half after getting a 20-0 first half lead. The Broncos beat Oregon on the road 9-20-08 as a 10.5 point underdog building a 37-13 lead. With the Oregon win, Boise now becomes the next “BCS buster” leader. This means BSU will try to run up the score to further impress the media. This is a must 30-point victory for Boise.

Betting on WAC road dogs of 14 or more points is not a profitable spot in the past, 20-32 ATS the past five years. La Tech’s last two visits to potato-land have finished with identical 55-14 losses.

Boise doesn't seem to have the same capabilities on the ground this year as in the past. However, they don’t necessarily need to have a very good ground game against the Bulldogs who are next to last in pass defense in the NCAA giving up almost 350 yards per game.

Boise gained confidence beating Oregon. Redshirt freshman QB Kellen Moore is ranked 7^th in the nation in pass efficiency. Over the past ten years, a conference home favorite of 14 points or more who won their previous game straight-up as an away dog of more than 7 points is 15-4 ATS.

Boise went lame in the Bowling Green game. However, that game was not played on a weekday in front of a national audience at night. This is Boise’s time

Take the Broncos!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
5-3-08

Take OVER 189 in Orlando – Detroit

Detroit played Orlando four times in the regular season with an average combined score of 198 points. Only once
did the total go below 189 when they met February 19 in each team’s first game after the All-Star break. The average lined
total was 191. In each game at least one team scored more than 100 points.
The lowest point total of any team was 85 by Orlando in the 2/19 game.

The teams played at a pace of 91, slightly higher than Detroit’s regular season number of 89.9 but
significantly lower than the Magic’s 95.6 pace.

The Magic are one of only 5 NBA teams this year that scored within one point per game on the road as compared
to what the team scored at home. Detroit won’t be quite as focused as normal after playing a big game
in Philly two nights ago to close our Round 1.

Take the OVER!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
3-7-08

Take Northeastern over James Madison

It has not been a good year for the Dukes of James Madison. Coach Dean Keener he resigned on Feb. 22 effective at the end of the season. What started out as a promising season is not looking very good, 13-16 and the #11 seed in the Colonial Tournament. JMU faces the #6 seed, Northeastern, who will be looking for revenge from a
December 1 loss on their home court to the Dukes.

The Huskies, who start a junior, three sophomores and a freshman, have matured as the season has
progressed. After entering the beginning of nearly full-time conference play with a 4-7 record, the
Huskies won eight of their first 13 CAA games, including five straight from Jan. 30 to Feb. 13.

Northeastern is led by Matt Janning, last year’s CAA Rookie of the Year. He is the league’s third-leading scorer
with 16.4 ppg and also grabs 3.4 rpg along with dishing out 2.4 assists per game. The Huskies’ strength
is their defense. In conference games, Northeastern is second in the league in scoring defense, allowing
just 61.1 points per game. Playing a variety of zones, Northeastern has held four conference opponents
under 50 points and four more under 60.

Take Northeastern!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
11-11-07

# 526 Northern Iowa -3 over UMass

UMass will be missing Chad Lowe, their fine point guard. The Minute Men are weak inside this year and much smaller than last year. Univ. of Northern Iowa has one of the best big men in the Missouri Valley Conference, 6-9 Eric Coleman. UNI is 9-2 ATS the last 3 years as a small favorite.

Take the Panthers!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
11-09-07

Today's free pick from the website, http://www.vegassportsauthority.com/free_picks, is on Drexel -3 over Penn. We have played this for a half-unit. Drexel got crushed last year by Penn at the Palestra. Drexel also got snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee even though they had some high quality wins and I believe an RPI of about 39. They have a first-team all-conference big inside in 6-9 Fran Elegar. Penn lost some key personnel and they are only picked to finish third in the Ivy. Inside they are very young. Drexel is out of the Colonial, the Conference that brought us George Mason two years ago, and is one of the conference favorites this year.

Take Drexel over Penn in a low-scoring game.

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
11-07-07

TOTALS # 507 Charlotte - Philadelphia UNDER 188.5

The Bobcats last year ranked 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The 76ers weren't much better at 26th. Raymond Felton, Charlotte's point guard, hurt his ankle last night. While it is not a serious ankle injury as the MRI was negative, the chances are he won't play tonight. In his place, 33-year old Jeff McInnis will start with Derek Anderson backing him up. Last year McInnis shot 39.2 percent and had the second-worst player efficiency rating among point guards. While McInnis is definitely not a defensive stopper, he is 6-4. Too much shouldn't be lost on defense as Felton is not an exceptional defender, especially when going against taller guards such as Andre Miller and Willie Green.

Take the UNDER!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
10-28-07

# 223 New Orleans - San Francisco

San Francisco is 4-0 OVER when they have previous season revenge against a non-divisional opponent for a loss as a dog in which they suffered at least a +2 turnover margin. The 49ers have gone over by an average of 17.5 points
in this situation and there has been one qualifying date in each of the past two seasons.

Having Vernon Davis back helps the Niners and New Orleans is starting to get on track offensively having scored 50 points in their previous two games after not passing the 14-point barrier previously.

Also, the 49ers have gone OVER 11 times in the last 15 games they played against a team with a losing record and the OVER is 5-0 the past five meetings in SF between these teams.

Take the OVER!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
9-29-07

#335 Memphis at Rice

Why is this the free pick and not a Premium Pick? How about the fact that Memphis has dropped 14 of its past 18 games, including 14-of-16 against 1-A competition. It is the worst stretch since the Memphis lost 13-of-17 from 2001 to 2002. The good news is Memphis is only 1-1 in conference play and EVERYBODY in CUSA has at least one league loss this year. They aren’t out of contending for the CUSA title.

Rice is off of a terrible loss and is just 2-5 the week after the Bayou Bucket battle with Houston. The Owls blew a 12-point third quarter lead against the Cougars and gave up 748 total yards. Rice is injured and has one of the worst defenses in the country.

The scheduling spot for Rice is very bad. I have two different systems which show that teams in Rice’s particular scheduling situation cover at only a 30 to 35% rate. I like the better balanced Memphis Tigers to get the win.

Take Memphis over Rice!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
9-29-07

#132 Florida State -1.5 over Alabama

If you believe in the theory of “how charged is a team’s batteries makes a difference”, then you will be on Florida State. The ‘Noles are off of a bye week, the Tide are coming off of a gut-wrenching victory over Arkansas and an overtime loss to Georgia. The Tide is getting a little too much respect for having the “anointed-one”, Nick Saban, as their head coach.

Florida State has had their offensive troubles, but I believe in Jimbo Fisher, their new offensive coordinator. It is quite a side story that Fisher was LSU’s OC the past seven years, some spent under Saban. The ‘Noles tailback Antone Smith gives them a solid threat in the running game, but they do suffer from a lack of depth.

Even though Florida State has not been impressive so far this year, I think as the weeks go bye they will be more of a factor in the top 25. Their highly touted quarterback, jr. Drew Weatherford, is performing much better this year and has only one interception through three games, a major improvement over his last two years. Perhaps the competition between he and Xavier Lee is helping him achieve his potential.

I have a trend that is 18-5 on Florida State concerning teams off of overtimes, rest, and past performance.

Take Florida State and lay the small number

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
9-27-07

#101 Southern Mississippi - Boise State UNDER 51

Southern Mississippi is not going to be intimidated in Boise playing on a turf that makes the uninformed home viewer think his TV’s color is out of whack. The Golden Eagles played in Knoxville in front of over 106 thousand Tennessee Volunteer fans singing “Rocky Top” ad nauseum.

Southern Mississippi came into the 2007 season with what was said to be Conference USA’s top defensive line and group of linebackers. The secondary was also highly regarded but they have had a couple of injuries that has tested their depth. They return nine starters to a unit that allowed 127.8 rushing yards per game last season and is still only giving up 120.7 rushing yards per game.

The Golden Eagles defensive numbers didn’t look that great against Tennessee, but after trailing only 17-16 at half, they had three second half fumbles leading to scores that caused the Eagles to throw more than they wanted to. In Southern Miss’s other two games, no opposing runner gained more than 45 yards on the ground.

Boise State held eight opponents under 100 rushing yards last year and the Broncos are looking to repeat that performance in 2007, holding Wyoming to 35 yards on 24 carries. While the Huskies of Washington were able to grind out 133 yards on the ground against Boise, it took them 40 carries to do so.

They’ve played two Division I-A schools this year and struggled offensively in both, committing four turnovers at Washington and scoring only 24 points at home against Wyoming in Week 3. It was their first home game scoring less than 41 points since October of 2005.

Boise isn’t Boise anymore. They don’t’ have the “Z-Man”, Jared Zabransky, at quarterback and they are missing four NFL draft choices. Their highly-touted offensive line isn’t opening holes for running back Ian Johnson like they did last year. Statistically it may appear Boise is running the ball well this year, but 62% of their total ground yards came against Weber State. Against Washington and Wyoming, the Broncos were only able to garner 224 yards on 84 carries, a poor 2.67 yards per carry average!

Some trends favoring the UNDER is in non-conference games Southern Miss is 22-9-1 UNDER, Boise 8-1 to the UNDER. The UNDER is 11-5 in the Golden Eagles last 16 as an underdog, 19-9 if they are on the road. In their last 22 games against teams with a winning record, Boise is 16-5-1 UNDER.

TAKE THE UNDER!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
9-24-07

# 427 Tennessee at New Orleans
Who hasn’t forgotten the New Orleans Saints return to the Superdome after Katrina last year on Monday Night and their triumph over Atlanta? It was an unbelievably emotional game.

The big difference between this year’s Monday Night Football game and tonight’s is last year the Saints were 2-0 and this year are wearing the horse collar at 0-2. People assume the Superdome is a great home-field advantage but the Saints were only 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite last year.

Tennessee statistically is the best rushing team in the NFL averaging 211 yards per game and a very nice 5.1 yards per carry. Titan offensive coordinator Norman Chow understands his teams strengths and devises a game plan to take advantage of them.

Tennessee is on a 12-3 ATS streak as an underdog and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Titan head coach Jeff Fisher is 32-18 ATS against NFC teams. Tennessee is the stronger defensive team and the better rushing team.

I like the Titans plus the points tonight against the Saints.

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
9-13-07

TCU at Air Force

TCU has a very good defense and they are familiar with the Air Force offense. Before the season began at, there was a lot of talk that the Cadets new head coach, Troy Calhoun, would be changing offenses opening things up more while still leaving the old Air Force option in the playbook. Against Utah, it looked like Air Force was still remaining grounded as they ran the ball 63 times for 334 while averaging a measly 3.9 yards per pass play. They were 3 of 14 on third-down efficiency.

These are numbers which promote taking the UNDER, especially if your opponent is strong defensively but treading water offensively. TCU is just that type of opponent as they were second-best in the nation last year in total yards allowed. Last year they allowed just 12.3 point per game, third best in the country. And, they bring back nine starters on defense!

The Horned Frogs have two of the best defensive ends in college football, Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. These two football studs will be going against two first-year starting offensive tackles for the Cadets. They ARE both seniors, but one was only able to make the Air Force JV squad for two years and has only played in eight games while the other starting offensive tackle has never started a game and has only gotten into 18 games his first three years.

TCU's offense isn't as talented as their defense. Their starting tailback, Aaron Brown, who was the Mountain West Conference Freshman Player of the Year in 2005, will not play tonight. TCU has been starting a redshirt freshman quarterback. TCU was only able to put up 27 points against Baylor in their first game gaining almost exactly the same amount of yardage versus Baylor as doormat Rice did the following week.

While it is not going to be a significant factor this early in the season, I do like the Defensive Coordinator Air Force hired, Tim DeRuyter. He has done a good job in his past turns as DC at other schools.

Take the Under 42!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
9-08-07

# 404 SMU -17 over North Texas

The cupboard was left bare is an expression that is going to be heard frequently in Denton, TX. North Texas brought in a high school coach, Todd Dodge, a former quarterback at the University of Texas. For the last seven years, Dodge has been the high school coach at Southlake Carroll High School. This is a school in a very privileged area, the players have personal trainers. The families are not missing a Mastercard payment nor are they behind on their mortgages.

Southlake Carroll has won four of the last five Texas HS 5A Titles. They probably could have done it with Captain Kangaroo as their coach. (yeah, I’m showing my age, but that is the first childhood icon that came to mind). To make matters worse, Dodge brought his high school offensive and defensive coordinator along with him to Denton and his tour at North Texas.

Dodge is installing a pass happy offense at a school where Darrell Dickey, one of the last “three yards and a cloud of dust” coaches, reigned until he had a heart attack. Nothing worse than changing to an offense with the wrong type of personnel. It is going to be a long season in Denton.

These two schools compete for the same second and third tier of Dallas area recruits. Do you think there might be some resentment from the SMU recruits who played against the Southlake Carroll recruits at North Texas and their coach? The team that was state champ year after year?

North Texas has no aspirations. They realize this is a complete rebuilding year. SMU has hopes of a bowl game. They have a razzle dazzle quarterback in Justin Willis, the Conference USA Freshman Player of the Year, and a coach who I feel is one of quality, Phil Bennett. The Mean Green don’t have the players to fulfill coach Dodge’s offense. They are going to be one of the worst offenses in the nation this year, even in the Sunbelt Conference.

The Mustangs came so close to making it to a bowl last year, the first in over twenty years. They have the pieces in place to do so and a romp over one of the worst teams in the nation will help them achieve their goal.

Take SMU and lay the points!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
8-30-07

# 175 Missouri -5 over Illinois

Missouri improved its conference scoring defense last year by 7.2 points. They improved their rushing offense by almost 40 yards per game. Last year they were 8^th in the nation in pasing behind QB ChaseDaniel. He complete 63.5% of his passes and had a very good 28-10 TD to INT ratio. MU has one of the best WR combos in the nation in Tommy Saunders and Will Franklin. They also have two tight ends that both will be playing in the NFL.

Missouri is 6-3 ATS in their first road game since ’98 and 5-1 ATS since 2002 against non-conference BCS teams.

The USA Today coaches poll omitted Missouri from the preseason top 25 despite the Tigers being the media choice to win the Big 12 North. Nebraska, which claimed the North last season, was installed at No. 19 in that poll.
That could help the Tigers’ motivation today.

The Illini running game is average at best, excluding the scrambling of quarterback Juice Williams.

Williams has to do better than last year’s below 40% completion rate to prevent teams from loading up in the box to stop the run. Leman, the Illini linebacker who could be first team All-American this year, has been hobbled
by a bad wheel but says he will play today.

Illinois is a very much improved team this year thanks to great recruiting classes by head coach Ron Zook. However, Mizzou is one of the top five offensive teams in the nation and I can’t see Illinois being able to outscore them.

Take Missouri and lay the short number!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
8-30-07

# 137 UNLV at Utah State UNDER 47

Two offensively-challenged teams meet on opening day Thursday for the 2007 college football season. Utah State last year averaged a paltry 10.8 points per game. UNLV wasn’t much better at 19.8 points per game.
UNLV had aspirations coming into the season but the lack of improvement from knee surgery for former USC transfer QB Rocky Hinds will keep him on the sideline for an undetermined period. In steps redshirt freshman QB Travis Dixon to guide the Rebels’ spread offense. A QB who has not taken a snap in his career usually breeds conservative play calling, especially in a complicated offense. UNLV has some quality receivers including playmaker Ryan Wolfe, but don’t expect for them to be a large factor in this game. Frank Summers will be their featured running back. At 5-10, 240, he is more of a load than a breakaway threat.

Utah State has a new offensive coordinator, Darrell Dickey, the former head coach at North Texas. Dickey is a throwback to the “three yards and a cloud of dust” days so don’t expect to see any elaborate passing attack. Eleven starters return on defense for the Aggies

Third-year UNLV coach Mike Sanford REALLY needs to win this game as Rebel fans are starting to put the pressure on him after dismal back to back two-win seasons. I believe Sanford will be looking to avoid mistakes, especially with their QB situation, and will be calling a very conservative game. On the defensive side, LB Beau Bell and DE Jeremy Geathers will be a force for Utah State to deal with.

Take the UNDER!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
8-25-07

Tampa Bay – Miami UNDER 34

A good trend to look that has been successful 60% of the time over the last 18 years is to play the UNDER when a home team won its last game and their opponent is playing of the road for the second straight week.
That is the case in the Tampa Bay – Miami game today.

Miami has been defending the run very well so far in the preseason. Against two teams that favor the run, Jacksonville and Kansas City, they have allowed only an average of 60 yards per game with a stellar 2.1 yards per carry. The Dolphin defense is making it very difficult for teams to score as they have an excellent 23.7 yards per point average.

Both coaches are not being overly cooperative in stating who is going to play and for how long. Dolphin stalwart defenders Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor are supposed to see action for the first time this preseason. However, Tampa Bay’s leading rusher from last year, Cadillac Williams, will probably not make it on the field. He has only had four carries this preseason and Coach Gruden wants to have as many weapons healthy for the regular season to improve upon their #31 ranked offense from last year.

Buc fans will not see much of starter Jeff Garcia but will see a lot of backups Luke McCowan and Bruce Gradkowski,
two QB’s who don’t exactly strike fear in defensive coordinators minds.

Miami freshman head coach, Cam Cameron, will continue to play a very vanilla offense as he puts in his system.
Another plus for taking the UNDER.

Tampa is on a 26-9 streak to the UNDER when the total is 35 or less. Also, when these two teams meet the UNDER is 10-3.

Take the UNDER!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
8-20-07

Tampa Bay is just awful in the opening game of a series, this year struggling at an 11-29 record and 12-39 in their last 51. On the other hand, Boston has excelled for over two years in Game 1 of a series with a 61-36 record.

Boston also does very well after a loss when they never had the lead as they are on a 22-6 streak. Just the opposite, when Tampa Bay has the good fortune of winning a game after coming from behind, they are only 18-44 in their next game.

Boston’s starter, Tim Wakefield, has owned Tampa Bay with a lifetime 18-2, 2.83 ERA. He even pitches better against the Devil Rays when he’s on the road, 8-0 while holding them to a .190 batting average.

However, Tampa Bay starter Scott Kazmir has owned the Bosox at home with a 1.42 ERA and a .183 batting average. Kazmir has been in a groove his last four games giving up only one earned run in 25 innings pitched while striking out 32 and surrendering only 7 walks. Two of those starts were against Boston where he shut them out in 12 frames. Bosox averages against Kazmir are embarrassing: Ortiz, .147; Ramirez, .139, Varitek, .222.

While there is a lot of data that says to take Boston, one can’t ignore Kazmir’s mastery. Add the possibility of the slumping Bosox might be puckering a bit with the Yankees breathing down their necks, I like the UNDER 8.5

Take #968 Boston Red Sox/Wakefield - Tampa Bay/Kazmir UNDER 8.5 -103

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
6-13-07

Milwaukee - Houston

Houston sends lefty Wandy Rodriguez to the hill to combat RHP Claudio Vargas of Milwaukee. Milwaukee is on a nice streak, 9-1. They hit lefties well as they are 16-9 versus southpaws. The Brew Crew plays well at home, 28-13. The Astros suck on the road, 15-26. The bullpens show a marked contrast. Milwaukee at home sports an ERA of 3.30 coming out of the pen with a nice WHIP of 1.173. The Astros' pen on the road has an atrocious ERA of 6.05 and a terrible WHIP of 1.62.

Take the Brewers!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
6-13-07

Milwaukee

Detroit has been smashing the ball averaging over 8 runs per game in their last ten. In their last ten games, Detroit has batted .371 against lefties, Maroth is averaging 6 ininngs per start before turning the game over to one of the worst bullpens in the bigs with a pen ERA over 5.00! In Maroth’s last two starts he has an ERA of 6.55 with a very bad WHIP of 16.4. In his last two starts, the Brewers’ Capuano matchs Maroth’s ERA of 6.55 with a WHIP of 14.7.

The OVER is 23-9-3 in Detroit’s last 35 games and 28-11-2 in their last 41 home games. Maroth and Capuano both have trends to the OVER with the Tiger 6-0 OVER in his last six starts and Capuano 5-2 OVER in his last 7 starts.

Take the OVER 10 -105!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
5-28-07
Take Utah +2 over San Antonio

at Detroit

Two lefties take the mound tonight, Chris Capuano for Milwaukee and Mike Maroth for Detroit.

San Antonio has never won a playoff game in Salt Lake City and the Jazz haven’t lost a game at home in the playoffs yet this year. San Antonio’s record in Games 3 and 4 of the Playoffs over the past five years has not been very impressive. In speaking with a friend, he said “San Antonio doesn’t lose two playoff games in a row, even when they are on the road.” Well, that’s not true, they definitely do. Over the past five years, the Spurs are 10-16 straight-up in Games 3 and 4 during the Playoffs. This includes a 4-0 record against lightweights Denver in 2005 and Memphis in 2004. Take away those two and the Spurs are 6-16 in Games 3 and 4.

Utah is 38-10 at home straight-up this year including a 7-0 run in the Playoffs. Obviously, they are a much better team at home.

Tim Duncan sat for a huge chunk of the game with foul trouble. I can see the refs swallowing their whistles more tonight than calling fouls on Duncan as often as they did in Game 3. One thing that is overlooked is Duncan committed eight turnovers in the last game with the team at an ugly 20 for the game. The Utah defense stepped it up on him, as well as the entire Spurs team and played more of their aggressive style, especially in fighting against the pick and roll.

Utah controlled the boards, 52 to 36, including 21 team rebounds. They held the Spurs to 33% from three-point range, much better than the almost 50% San Antonio hit for in Games 1 and 2.

Utah has regained confidence, especially after the 66 to 36 second half wipeout. While I like Utah tonight, I am not releasing it as a Premium Pick due to the unknown status of Jazz point guard Deron Williams. Williams missed practice yesterday with the stomach flu. He is a game-time decision and one has to believe he will play if at all possible. His effectiveness is another matter. Without Williams, the Jazz are not the same team and I don’t see any way they could win.

Take the Jazz +2!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
5-17-07
Take Detroit UNDER 184.5

Detroit – Chicago

This is a very strange series. Chicago starts out losing the first three games averaging less than 77 points per game and shooting less than 34% from the field. The team was playing like Superman with a Kryptonite basketball. Then, the Bulls got flubber ironed onto their shoes or sold their souls to the devil like Joe Hardy did in “Damn Yankees” for Games 4 and 5. Whatever happened to the Bulls, it is more impressive than the Pirates turnaround in “Angels in the Outfield”. (I think I have reached my quota for pop culture references already in the first paragraph!)

The Pistons were the best road team in the Eastern Conference and tied with San Antonio for having the third best road record during the regular season, 27-14 straight-up.

You would think that the Pistons learned the lesson last year in Round 2 when they coughed up a 2-0 lead to Cleveland, fell behind 3-2 and had to win the final two games to advance. By then, they were drained and lost the conference finals opener against Miami and never recovered. Hello, McFly, is anybody home? (pop culture reference #4).

One of the keys for Chicago is to force an up-tempo game. When the Bulls scored 100 points or more this year against Detroit, they won all four times.

Since 2003, when Detroit has allowed a team to shoot over 50% from the field, the Pistons have rebounded well in the next game with an 8-2 SU record and an 8-2 mark to the UNDER.

As a 4 point or less Underdog in the Playoffs since 1999, Detroit is 16-3 to the UNDER.

Detroit is an enigma. They can be a dominating team as we saw in the first two games, or one who just doesn’t seem to care as we have seen in Games 4 and 5. I believe Detroit remembers last year and definitely wants this series to be over. It is hard to go against Chicago with the momentum they have gained in the past two games.

I do feel Detroit will get it done tonight, but I feel the safer play is on the UNDER 184.5

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
4-29-07
Dallas at Golden State

In the NBA Playoffs, match-ups become intensified. You are playing the same team in multiple games. Strengths and weaknesses become very evident. The quickness of Chicago’s perimeter players against Miami is a very good example. This was one of the man reasons we took the Bulls over the Heat to win the series.

Another mismatch is Golden State’s speed and athleticism over Dallas. While I had the Warriors over the Mavs in Game 1, I made the mistake with my free pick taking Dallas in Game 3. I felt Golden State was imploding after Baron Davis’s and Stephen Jackson’s outbursts in Game 2. Game 3 turned into a track meet with the Warriors lapping the Mavs.

The Mavs #5 men, Dampier and Diop, have not been a factor so far, combined they are averaging less than 4 points and 9 rebounds a game. Interesting note in the game Dallas won is also the game the two big men have played the most, 41 minutes versus 18 and 28 in Games 1 and 3 respectively.

I was not a Baron Davis fan when he played for the Hornets. This year, I have become a Davis disciple. The Warriors have only had a completely healthy backcourt since Davis returned March 5 in an 18-point road win over Detroit. Since then, in a schedule against all Western Division foes except for a win over Washington (WITH Gilbert Arenas) the Warriors have gone 16-5 straight-up and against-the-spread. Included in their final 21 regular season games are wins over Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Utah, and Denver, all Western teams with higher playoff seeds.

The pressure is on the Mavs. Warrior’s Coach Don Nelson DOES know the Mavs, especially Dirk Nowitzki, and knows how to play against them. He is attacking Nowitzki on defense no matter who he is guarding. Golden State has five guys who can shoot from outside and run the floor. You cannot ignore the fact of Golden State winning 6 of their 7 regular season match-ups over the past two years.

Golden State appears to have the confidence, they definitely have the fan support. Until proven otherwise, my money is on the Warriors over Dallas.

TakeGoldenState +3.5 over Dallas
(there are some +4’s out there, if you can’t find one I would buy half your bet up to +4)

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
3-4-07

Take Gonzaga minus the points over San Diego!

Gonzaga is off of their double-bye while San Diego has played two games in the WCC Tourney already. San Diego plays at a fairly fast tempo ranking in the top 20% in the nation of all D-1 schools so it is not like they are walking the ball up court. In fact, in they have averaged 86 points in their two games the past two days.

The story of the suspension of Gonzaga's leading rebounder & second-best scorer, Josh Heytvelt, has mushroomed into quite a story. (sorry for the pun, I needed something to put a smile on my face after a losing Saturday!) The Bulldogs miss his size inside against strong front courts, but the Toreros do not qualify as such. Also, the Zags historically have done a very good job in the second half of the season covering the spread against mildly successful teams who win between 51% and 60% of their games such as San Diego. Gonzaga has covered 69% of their games when playing such a foe.

San Diego has good depth, but they are young. Five of the top six players in minutes played are freshmen or sophomores. The Toreros have been playing a matador-style defense as in seven of their past ten games they have allowed OVER 50% shooting defensively! And, in four of those games their opponents shot OVER 56%! Bulldog guards Raivio and Pargo must be salivating at the mouth!

It's time to stop this write-up before I shame myself anymore.

Take Gonzaga minus the points over San Diego!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
2-27-07

Take Golden State +6 over Milwaukee!

A spot I like to look for is when a team is off of a lopsided blow-out win playing against a team off of a lopsided blow-out loss. One team is feeling pretty good about themselves, the other team is just the opposite. The higher quality of the team off of the loss and the lower quality of the team off of the win helps make this situation a stronger play.

Okay, Golden State isn't a very strong team. But Milwaukee IS a weak team. The Bucks have had a multitude of injury problems, in fact those continue with probably three contributors missing tonight's game against the Warriors. Golden State still has a shot at the playoffs. However, it is now or never. They haven't been a good road team this year, 11-16 ATS, but this is a very winnable game and they are coming off of a day of rest.

Plus, Golden State matches up well against the Bucks as both teams are weak in the front court. The Warriors have more scoring options than the Bucks and I believe they will rise to the occasion and get the cover with the generous six points over Milwaukee!

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
2-19-07

Take Villanova +2.5 over Marquette!

You have two teams both off of last second losses on Saturday. Villanova let Georgetown back in the game late in the second half and lost by three points. Now they travel to play the sixteenth rated Marquette Golden Eagles. Villanova has lost its last three games against ranked opponents by an average of four points. The Wildcats are 2-4 against Top 25 teams this season, with both victories coming at home.

The Golden Eagles blew a seven-point lead with 3:33 to go against Louisville with the Cardinals hitting a three-pointer at the buzzer for the win. It was Marquette's third straight loss. They haven't dropped four in a row since Feb. 3-18, 2004, when they were in Conference USA.

Marquette can only blame themselves for the last two losses, as they shot 26-for-45, 58%, from the free-throw line in those games. Their 64.2% free throw mark on the season is second-worst in the Big East to Connecticut's 63.0.

Villanova is more on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament than Marquette is. They have Curtis Sumpter inside against the weak front court of Marquette. The Wildcats are a more flexible and deep team and should be able to play small ball tonight if they have to. I like Nova for the win.

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
2-12-07

Take Hawaii -6 over New Mexico State!

New MexicoState has some very good talent. However, the road has not been overly kind to the Aggies as they are just 5-6 straight-up after losing their past two games, first at UtahState and then Saturday at FresnoState. New MexicoState has struggled on offense recently and now have to go against one of the best defensive teams in the WAC, Hawaii. Plus, it is the third road game in 7 days for the Aggies.

The Rainbows lost at Las Cruces, 92-86, in a game they were leading at half. They lost the lead when their center, Ahmet Gueye, had to go to the sidelines in foul trouble. Gueye, the ?Bows second-leading scorer and best rebounder, only played 22 minutes that game scoring just four points. In fact, three Hawaii starters fouled out as the Aggies outgunned the ?Bows at the charity stripe, 35 to 12.
Gueye made something of a name for himself going against Nevada's All-American, Nick Fazekas, on Feb. 3 in Reno. Gueye had a well-rounded night as he tied his career high with 21 points making 10 out of 15 shots along with ten rebounds, three assists, three blocks and two steals.

I like Hawaii minus the six points to get revenge against a tired New MexicoState squad.

Vegas Sports Authority Bonus Pick
By Jim Kruger
11-2-06

Take West Virginia +1 over Louisville!

West Virginia

is turning the ball over less than Louisville, 9 to 15. They also are creating more TO's, 15 to 11. Louisville is 12-2 ATS at home the past three years. West Virginia is 11-2 ATS their past 13 games, 19-7 ATS their past 26 road games.

The Cardinal quarterback, Brian Brohm, hasn't looked the same since coming back after injuring his thumb. The Cardinal offense still misses Michael Bush at running back and is not the same high-flying Louisville attack we've seen in the past. The Cards outgained Syracuse last week by 104 yards for the game. West Virginia outgained Syracuse when they played them two weeks ago by 335 yards.

Louisville came very close to losing to Cincinnati. The Bearcats were able to rush for 212 yards in that game.

I like West Virginia +1 tonight, but only as my free pick as I do not want to go against Louisville at home, especially at night on a weekday.

Last year in the West Coast Conference Tournament, the University of San Diego beat Pepperdine, San Francisco, and then lost to Gonzaga. This year they have beaten Pepperdine and San Francisco and just like what you would expect in Groundhog Day, now the Toreros play Gonzaga. Last year they lost to the Zags, this year they will lose to them again. The question of the day is, will it be enough to cover the spread?