3DW Sports Betting Line Moves – NFL
By Doug Upstone, 9-7-10

As I mentioned in this spot a week ago, the numbers for the opening week have had a great deal of exposure and it challenging to determine what is public money and what is smart money. In either case the activity has been brisk as expected and here is an early week look at the NFL for everyone’s lid-lifter for 2010. LINE MOVES will check back on Friday to see what has occurred during the week in the NFL and have college football for tomorrow.

NFL- Minnesota at New Orleans Thursday 8:30 EDT NBC

With Brett Favre still getting into game shape physically and mentally and not having the same weapons at his disposal like he had in the NFC title game, football bettors have taken the total down to 48 from opening 51. Look for Minnesota to attack the Saints greatest defensive weakness which is right up the gut. With Drew Brees and New Orleans anxious to prove they deserved to be Super Bowl champs, it would seem the Under is a hard wager to make. Always check the latest football and baseball numbers at SBGGlobal.com.

NFL- Atlanta at Pittsburgh 1:00 EDT FOX (Both sides and total)

With no Ben Roethlisberger or backup Byron Leftwich, online sports betting football fanatics have been clicking the side and total for this matchup. Dennis Dixon is an exciting choice for Pittsburgh, yet how will the Steelers react once they get in the red zone, which is why the total has been lowered to 38 (started at 40.5) and Atlanta has gone from Pick to 2.5-point favorite as of today. The Falcons are 15-5 UNDER as a road favorite of three points or less.

NFL- Cincinnati at New England 1:00 EDT CBS

The Patriots have lost two defensive starters in the preseason and will be younger and less skilled, which would explain why they have gone from six-point Foxboro favorite to -4.

NFL- Green Bay at Philadelphia 4:15 EDT  FOX (Both sides and total)

Green Bay is on the receiving line of a lot of public adulation, with Aaron Rodgers on more magazines and front page of websites than Kim Kardashian these days. The Packers were +1 road underdogs when oddsmakers released the opening week contests, but a steady diet of green has Green Bay now as field goal faves despite 0-6 and 1-5 ATS record in Philly most recently. The total has also ballooned two points to 47.5.

NFL- San Francisco at Seattle 4:15 EDT  FOX

San Francisco is the most settled squad in the NFC West and Seattle is scrambling to find five offense linemen that have a heartbeat and no physical maladies. This is the first time the 49ers are favored in Coffee-Town since 2002, having been shoved from 1.5-point pick to 3.

Totals Only

Denver at Jacksonville 1:00 EDT  CBS

With Denver and Jacksonville lacking offensive explosiveness, those seeking football betting answers have lower scoring affair in mind, dropping the total from 41.5 to 39.5 at most wagering outlets. Of note is the Jaguars are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less the last two seasons with average total score 42.4 points.

Arizona at St. Louis 4:15 EDT  FOX

The quarterback matchup of Derek Alexander and rookie top pick Sam Bradford has drawn a collective yawn and football bettors have taken the total south to 39 after the original figure was 41.5, with two other presumed starters under center. The Cardinals are 6-0 UNDER in road games versus division opponents.

Dallas at Washington 8:20 EDT  NBC

This rivalry conflict can only hope to live up to what Boise State and Virginia Tech just did on the same field in Maryland. This contest had a 41.5 number for starters and has fallen downward to 39. With Dallas a 3.5-point favorite, the Boys are 12-4 UNDER when favored against the Redskins.

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Money Line Nugget

Indianapolis is 23-0 on the ML in regular season games they didn’t tank since the middle of 2008 campaign.

Totals Nugget

Cleveland and Tampa Bay are combined 24-4 UNDER facing each other’s division opponents as they meet Sunday.

First Half Line Nugget

Jacksonville is 2-11 against the first half line as a favorite vs. the first half line the last two seasons.

3DW Sports Betting Line Moves is copyrighted content of Impact Sports Solutions, Inc and Doug Upstone. All rights reserved.

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Are you ready for some football! The first real football takes place tonight and the first weekend always lends itself to uncertainty. With just enough televised tilts, football bettors are ready for action. The NFL trots out its exhibitions and most of the games have drawn mild interest with a couple of exceptions. Don’t forget about baseball, sports bettors haven’t, with today’s light card.  

MLB- Philadelphia at Colorado 7:10 EDT

The Philadelphia Phillies were supposed to be flying home, but have a stop in Denver having to play a rescheduled game from May 11. Typically the road club headed home comes out on the short end and online sports betting enthusiasts have a similar feeling with the Phillies drifting downward from opening -140 money line to -125 or lower. The stakes are higher for Colorado who trail Philadelphia by five games in the loss column in the wild card chase and can gain ground in a head to head clash. The Rockies have won 12 of 15 at Coors Field and they are 43-21, scoring 5.8 runs per game at home. However, this cast of battle-tested vets from Philly is tougher than UFC fighter at crunch time and is 11-2 on the road since August. Joe Blanton (6-6, 5.15 ERA) has won his last three decisions and is 10-5 in September. Colorado’s Jhoulys Chacin (7-9, 3.79) has allowed one run and seven hits over 14 2/3 innings, nevertheless the Rocks are 4-17 vs. the Phillies since 2008, including the postseason. Always check the latest baseball and football numbers at SBGGlobal.com.

CFB- Southern Miss at South Carolina 7:30 EST ESPN

The total on contest has sauntered lower with each passing day. After being released by oddsmakers at 49, it was down to 47 over the weekend and continued to sink like Matt Leinart’s NFL career to 45. Talking to a wise guy, his thought was South Carolina’s defense should control the Southern Miss offensive line. His belief was the Golden Eagles need big plays in order to score. Conversely, nobody really knows if the Gamecocks O-Line is truly better and USM is used to playing in arduous settings and should hold their own, setting up a 27-17 score in his opinion.

CFB- USC at Hawaii Thursday 11:00 EDT ESPN

Those betting on sports do not believe motivation will be an issue for USC to start the season for coach Lane Kiffin’s crew, as the Trojans began at -18 and are presently -21. With no bowl game in their immediate future, this is an inverse bowl game of sorts for USC. Everyone knows Kiffin’s club has superior talent and is expected to carry on first game tradition of 12-1 and 11-2 ATS mark. Update: Unchanged since Monday.

CFB- Minnesota at Mid. Tennessee State 7:30 EDT ESPNU

The Blue Raiders went from 3.5-point home faves to +2.5 underdogs with the indefinite suspension of QB Dwight Dasher for accepting a loan in violation of NCAA rules. Coach Rick Stockstill announced Sunday sophomore Logan Kilgore will start at quarterback for M.T.S. and he was 21 of 34 for 322 yards in their spring game after transferring this past January from Bakersfield College in California. The shaken Blue Raiders are 2-6 and 1-4 ATS in home openers. Update: The correction this looking to be overstated in the bettors mind and Mid. Tenn. State is now +1.5 since Monday.

CFB- Marshall at Ohio State 7:30 EDT BTN

The second-ranked Buckeyes have caught the attention of football bettors as the total has risen from 45 to 47, with QB Terrelle Pryor deemed ready for a huge campaign after Rose Bowl coming out party. Marshall returns seven starters on defense, but the Buckeyes figure to score and are 47-27 OVER when they total 28 or more points. Update: A few books are showing the total sinking to 46.5 since Tuesday.

CFB- Florida Atlantic at UAB 7:30 EDT

The Owls of FAU have just three starters back on offense and none of that trio is a quarterback or offensive linemen. That would suggest a heavy dose of RB Alfred Morris for Florida Atlantic. UAB returns nine defensive starters and though they permitted over 450 yards per game last season, facing a one dimensional foe should help, along the more experience. The total has moved from 56 points to 50 and the Blazers are 10-2 UNDER when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt. Update: Unchanged since Tuesday.

NFL –Miami at Dallas 8:00 EDT

Dallas has the appearance of team bored to death and wants to get the regular season rolling. Being such a public team, football bettors have made the Cowboys a +1-point underdog after opening up as -2.5-point pick at home. Backing Miami is no bargain either, with the Dolphins 17-26 ATS as favorites.

NFL –Washington at Arizona 10:00 EDT

Somewhat curious line movement based on the history of both teams, as Arizona went from -3.5 point favorites to -5.5. QB Derek Alexander has more to play for in theory since he wants to prove he deserves to be the top guy in Arizona over the former USC golden boy. Coach Ken Whisenhunt admittedly does not put much stock in preseason games other than to view certain facets and is 0-6 ATS as favorite. No doubt Mike Shanahan is different than past Redskins coaches, still hard to at least not give passing attention to 1-9 ATS record as underdog of three or more points when opponent is off SU and ATS win. These clubs are combined 0-10 ATS in last exhibition game the past five years.

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ATS Nugget

The New York Jets are 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 32.5 and 35 points.

Football Totals Nugget

Southern Miss is 19-5 UNDER on the road in the first half of the season, with average score 39.6 total points

Baseball Run Line Nugget

Detroit is 26-9 (+19.7 Units) against the run line with double revenge vs. opponent this season.

3DW Sports Betting Line Moves is copyrighted content of Impact Sports Solutions, Inc and Doug Upstone. All rights reserved.

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Starting this week, SPORTS BETTING LINE MOVES will start transitioning towards football. On Monday’s we will focus on college football sides and on Tuesday’s will look at the totals. We will take a further look on Friday’s to see where the numbers have gone since earlier in the week. The numbers for this opening week are different than what they will be say starting next week for college football, since online sports betting participants and those in Nevada have had ample opportunity to make wagers on this week’s upcoming exciting contests. We won’t completely forget about baseball, just be much more selective.

MLB- Chic. White Sox at Cleveland 7:05 EDT WGN

With 31 games left in the season, the Chicago White Sox have work to do to narrow close the four game deficit they currently have behind division leader Minnesota. The Sox picked up Manny Ramirez trying to catch lightning in a bottle and have their collective fingers crossed that he can do for them what he did for the Dodgers two years ago. Chicago, behind Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.93 ERA) opened as -149 money line favorites and have been wagered down to -139 or less as they begin 10-game road trip. Buehrle and the Sox are 21-8 when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons, but are just 20-20 SU against Cleveland in the left-hander’s career (11-15, 4.71 ERA). Cleveland won their series over Kansas City and will seek consecutive series win for the first time since taking down Detroit and Minnesota on July 16-21. Despite their 53-77 record, the Indians are 17-16 vs. teams with a winning record in the second half and tonight’s starting pitcher Mitch Talbot is 3-0 with 1.57 ERA against the Pale Hose in 2010.  

CFB- USC at Hawaii Thursday 11:00 EDT ESPN

Those betting on sports do not believe motivation will be an issue for USC to start the season for coach Lane Kiffin’s crew, as the Trojans began at -18 and are presently -21. With no bowl game in their immediate future, this is an inverse bowl game of sorts for USC. Everyone knows Kiffin’s club has superior talent and is expected to carry on first game tradition of 12-1 and 11-2 ATS mark.

CFB- Minnesota at Mid. Tennessee State Thursday 7:30 EDT ESPNU

The Blue Raiders went from 3.5-point home faves to +3 underdogs with the indefinite suspension of QB Dwight Dasher for accepting a loan in violation of NCAA rules. Coach Rick Stockstill announced Sunday sophomore Logan Kilgore will start at quarterback for M.T.S. and he was 21 of 34 for 322 yards in their spring game after transferring this past January from Bakersfield College in California. The shaken Blue Raiders are 2-6 and 1-4 ATS in home openers.

CFB- Arizona at Toledo Friday 8:00 EDT ESPN

Off back to back bowl seasons, Arizona tries to take the next growth step in respectability with 10 offensive starters back and a rare national cable audience. The Wildcats have diverse offense led by QB Nick Foles and they are being counted on to add to Toledo’s rebuilding issues, moving from 12.5 to 14.5-point road favorites. Toledo will rely on veteran offensive line to pull the upset and Arizona is 0-6 ATS as road favorites of more than four points.

CFB- Miami-O at Florida Saturday 12:00 EDT ESPN

The Gators are 34.5-point pick at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium after first being acknowledged as 30.5-point choice. Under Urban Meyer, Florida is 17-3 ATS vs. FBS non-conference foes.

CFB- Northwestern at Vanderbilt Saturday 7:30 EDT GamePlan

The sudden departure of former coach Bobby Johnson, who brought respectability to the Vanderbilt program, has left a void in this Nashville-based university. Commodore head coach Robbie Caldwell is attempting to keep things on track with the 12 returning starters. Visiting Northwestern was taken from 3-point road favorites to 5.5, with a veteran offense line already in place and is 8-2 and 7-2 ATS marks in initial contest of the season.

CFB- Texas vs Rice Saturday 3:30 EDT ESPN

The Longhorns don’t open at home for the first time since 1995 and have been bet downward to 29.5 from original forecast of 32-point chalk. That is interesting news since Texas is 18-0 and 12-5 ATS against non-conference in-state schools with average winning margin 38 points.

CFB- UCLA at Kansas State Saturday 3:30 EDT ABC/GamePlan

Oddsmakers hung a +1.5 on Kansas State in Manhattan and those reviewing the football betting line flipped them to 2.5-point favorites. These are two young teams trying to move up the ladder in respective conferences. The Wildcats can win and cover if RB Daniel Thomas is established early against unproven UCLA defensive tackles. The Bruins need QB Kevin Prince to play solid, limit turnovers and have clutch kicker Kai Forbath supply winning margin.

CFB- LSU vs North Carolina Saturday 8:00 EDT ABC

This was supposed to be the return of North Carolina football on a grand stage, facing a marquee opponent. The Tar Heels were a Pick when the number was originally released and were slight favorite’s at most wagering outlets until NCAA investigation into agent-related benefits that has since expanded into a probe of possible academic misconduct. With the possible suspension of an undetermined amount of players that might not be decided until late in the week, UNC figures to continue to be an even larger underdog (one-point today) by game time.

CFB- Cincinnati at Fresno State Saturday 10:00 EDT ESPN2

Coach Pat Hill loves when big-time programs visit raisin-country. For those watching football betting lines, Fresno State has gone from 1-point home favorite to -3. Of concern has to be the Bulldogs 2-10-1 ATS record as home betting choice the past four years.

CFB- UL-Lafayette at Georgia Saturday 12:20 EDT GamePlan

The Bulldogs 1-10 ATS mark as chalk at Sanford Stadium and 7-18 ATS record as double digit favorites, tells story of how superior everyone believes Georgia is over UL-Lafayette talent-wise. Coach Mark Richt’s ‘Dogs departed as 24-point play and reside at -28 this Monday.

College Totals on Tuesday.

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Baseball ML Nugget

San Diego is 15-3 against the money line after two or more consecutive losses this season.

BaseballTotals Nugget

Seattle is 21-7 UNDER at home when the ML is +125 to -125 this year with average score 5.8 RPG.

Baseball Run Line Nugget

Cincinnati is 14-4 (+12.2 Units) against the RL vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs a game in the second half of the season, winning by 3.2 RPG.

3DW Sports Betting Line Moves is copyrighted content of Impact Sports Solutions, Inc and Doug Upstone. All rights reserved.

Please feel free to forward this to friends; just keep the entire article intact and unaltered.

By Doug Upstone

Several years ago, I started looking at a ways to evaluate college football teams before the season started. The goal was to achieve a method of understanding who the impact players on the football field were and at least presume they will follow thru once the season commences. As we know, everybody’s All-American in August can turn into conference honorable mention by December. The same is true with players relatively unknown, like the New York Giants top pick DE Jason Pierre Paul of South Florida, who burst onto the scene that had previously been dominated by teammate George Selvie.

How this works is I compile information from a wide variety of sources to determine who the best players are going to be in each conference, difference-makers if you will. The reason for using conferences is this is how teams make it to BCS games or bowl tie-ins. How well does this work? From the handicapping point of view it works on futures wagers, to build foundation as to how to perceive teams throughout the year. That is not to say this 100 percent accurate, because nothing is.

The basic point is talent wins games week after week. Granted, motivation and other factors play into betting on college football from week to week, nevertheless, ask any successful coach what is the lifeblood of the program and he’ll tell you it is players that have ability. Even if teams lack focus for a half versus inferior opponent, once they start playing up to capabilities, the more talented team can still win and cover spreads.

Undoubtedly, other aspects come into play like scheduling, when you play teams or injuries. Nonetheless, this is a great tool to blend with others for the upcoming season.

As an added bonus, Impact Football Solutions went thru every preseason publication and website that had preseason predictions and we list in parenthesis how each team is expected to finish based on ranking them all.

ACC – Atlantic

1)      Boston College (2) -21 points

2)      Florida State (1) -16.5 points

3)      Clemson (3) -15 points

4)      Maryland (6) – 9 points

5)      N.C. State (4) -6 points

6)      Wake Forest (5) -1 point

ACC-Coastal

1)      North Carolina (3) -28 points

2)      Miami-Fl. (2)-16.5 points

3)      Virginia Tech (1)-11.5 points

4)      Georgia Tech (4)-9 points

5)      Virginia (6)- 6.5 points

6)      Duke (5) -4 points

ACC Notes- Finding Boston College and North Carolina at the top of any ACC poll would be a shock to most football observers. The Eagles are strong in usual areas like offensive and defensive lines and if Mark Herzlich can make it all the way back from cancer; the Boston College bond on defense will be that much stronger. The Tar Heels on paper are the most complete defensive team in the country. The only weakness is if Butch Davis’ defenders become too satisfied with pressing clipping and tweets about how good they are or if the offense does nothing to help them and keeps them in negative field position continually. Florida State is expected to dominate their division, with the other teams having many holes to be plugged. The U at Miami is liked by many experts, however the offensive line is in flux after allowing 35 sacks and Game 2-5 (at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, at Clemson and Florida State) might have the Hurricanes mentally and physically worn for a time. Virginia Tech should be very good offensively, but defense is rebuilding. New Virginia head coach Mike London has to fix offense that was 118^th in the FBS last season.

Big East

1)      Pittsburgh (1)-30 points

2)      Cincinnati (4)-28.5 points

3)      West Virginia (2) -27 points

4)      Rutgers (5)-15.5 points

5)      Connecticut (3)-15 points

6)      South Florida (6)-11 points

7)      Syracuse (7)-8 points

8)      Louisville (8)-4.5 points

Big East Notes – After a nice run of being the surprise conference in college football, the Big East could take a step backward. Pittsburgh might have been the best team in the league last year, but couldn’t hold on to 31-10 lead at home to Cincinnati to give the Bearcats the Big East crown. The Panthers did suffer fairly heavy personnel losses on both sides of the ball, but still have the greatest amount of star power. Rival West Virginia would seem to pose the greatest challenge and has 16 starters back; however Coach Bill (smiley) Stewart is not a positive. Cincy has many parts back from title team, but can head man Butch Jones duplicate his predecessor’s success again? One club to watch is Connecticut. The defense wasn’t up to typical Huskies standards, however they should be improved. UConn finally has a legit offense and the five losses that were suffered last season were by 15 total points. South Florida was forced to go different direction after Jim Leavitt was fired. Skip Holtz takes over and will want to improve 7-13 (8-12 ATS) close to the season the past three years.

Mountain West

1)      TCU (1)-38 points

2)      Utah (2)-25.5 points

3)      BYU (3)-16 points

4)      Air Force (4) -14.5 points

5)      Wyoming (5)-13 points

6)      San Diego State (6)-11 points

7)      New Mexico (9)-10 points

8)      Colorado State (7)-7.5 points

9)      UNLV (8) -6 points

Mountain West Notes –The upper part of this conference should hold little mystery. TCU is hands down the best squad in Mountain West, maybe being a little better offensively and dropping a notch on defense from last year. Utah will have the Horned Frogs at home in early November, yet at this time it does not appear they have the horses on defense to run with TCU. The BYU talent is definitely down this year, taking them out of true contender range. Air Force and Wyoming both have a chance to go bowling again and each could be good underdogs if they can stay healthy. San Diego State has a capacious number of starters back, nevertheless, until they prove they can at least compete with the MWC big boys, plus win and cover as favorites, honestly, difficult to take seriously. The Aztecs conceded 30 or more points last season and were 0-6 and 1-5 ATS. Why does everyone think UNLV is the sleeping giant of the conference? In a town that has been built on losers, the football Rebels fit right in.

C-USA -East

1)  Central Florida (1) -22.5 points

2) Southern Miss (2) – 22 points

3) Marshall (3) -14.5 points

4) UAB (5) – 10.5 points

5) East Carolina (4)-7.5 points

6) Memphis (6) -6 points

C-USA –West

1)      Houston (1) -20.5 points

2)      Rice (5) -13 points

3)      UTEP (4) -11 points

4)      Tulsa (3) – 10 points

5)      SMU (2) -6.5 points

6)      Tulane (6) -1 point

C-USA Notes – This league is presumed to have one constant and drastic change at the same time. Houston is the overwhelming favorite to win another West division title, but it might not as simple as it looks. Rice, Tulsa and SMU (1-11 to 8-5 was biggest turnaround in FBS) are all believed to be vastly improved, providing more competition than meets the eye. Each has the feel of being able to cover the backdoor or have front door covers on unsuspecting opponents. The East is a different matter. East Carolina lost 30 letterman (most of the 120 FBS teams) and will need brick and mortar to rebuild. That swings open the door for Central Florida and Southern Mississippi to charge thru. The Knights bring back 15 starters from 2009 and are slight favorites over the Golden Eagles. Brett Favre’s alma mater might actually have more naturally gifted players than UCF; nonetheless the offense has to sort out matters before being the anointed team. UAB coach Neil Callaway must really like his handpicked coaching staff. With 11-25 (16-17-1 ATS) record after three years, every assistant for the Blazers starts their fourth year. Hmm.

Big 12 –North

1)      Missouri (2)-19.5 points

2)      Nebraska (1) -18 points

3)      Colorado (4) -10.5 points

4)      Kansas State (6) - 6.5 points

5)      Kansas (3) -5 points

6)      Iowa State (5) – 2.5 points

Big 12 –South

1)      Oklahoma (1) -27 points

2)      Texas (2) -24.5 points

3)      Texas A&M (3) -17.5 points

4)      Texas Tech (4) -8.5 points

5)      Oklahoma State (5) -6.5 points

6)      Baylor (6) -2 points

Big 12 Notes – Oklahoma and Nebraska are expected to meet for the Big 12 title, having the most talent up and down their rosters. Neither is a sure thing as both Missouri (five straight winning seasons, longest since 1978-82) and Texas have playmakers that could alter the outcome of the league. Texas A&M, at least offensively can overtake Texas Tech as the third best team in the South. With nine starters back for coach Mike Sherman, he’s counting on big improvement from the Big 12’s worst defense a year ago. Despite large sums of money spent by T. Boone Pickens to upgrade the facilities to make Oklahoma State a better destination for a high school recruit, coach Mike Gundy lost a ton of starters (only eight return, 4-O and 4-D) and the replacements are not nearly as good, halting any progress made. The rest of the Big 12 looks like others competing for scraps after the big dogs have eaten.

Big Ten

1)      Ohio State (1) -37.5 points

2)      Wisconsin (3) -27 points

3)      Iowa (2) -22 points

4)      Penn State (4) -15 points

5)      Michigan State (5) -14.5 points

6)      Purdue (7) -10 points

7)      Michigan (6) -6.5 points

8)      Northwestern (8) -5.5 points

9)      Illinois (10) - 3.5 points

10)Indiana (9) -2.5 points

     11)Minnesota (11) -2 points

Big Ten Notes – The league should be called “The Big One and the little 10”, as Ohio State is absolutely superior to the rest of the conference. That doesn’t mean the rest of the teams won’t have an interesting season. Wisconsin could well return to 10-2 regular season with what coach Bret Bielema has on hand. Iowa will again be a factor with rugged defense and potentially improved offense. Penn State in recent years has matched the play of their quarterback and Kevin Newsome is expected first year starter. The rest of the conference looks like rush hour in downtown Chicago. A number of squads have possibilities to get ahead of the pack or they could be caught in traffic with the rest. Two coaches that need their teams to surpass expectations are Rich Rodriguez (Michigan permitted 30 or more points in six of eight Big Ten contests in 2009) and Ron Zook. If the preseason prognosticators are correct, both might add to the almost 10 percent national unemployment ranks. Minnesota is out to avoid last year’s conference trifecta in which they finished last in scoring, total offense and rushing offense.

SEC –East

1)      Florida (1) -21 points

2)      Georgia (2) -16 points

3)      South Carolina (3) -9 points

4)      Kentucky (5) -4.5 points

5)      Tennessee (4) -3 points

6)      Vanderbilt (6) -2.5 points

SEC –West

1)      Alabama (1) -32.5 points

2)      Arkansas (2) -13.5 points

3)      LSU (4) -13 points

4)      Auburn (3) -9.5 points

5)      Mississippi (5) -7.5 points

6)      Miss. State (6) – 7 points

SEC Notes- The biggest non-surprise since the end of last year’s regular season was Urban Meyer back officially as head coach. The Gator-monster he helped create even got the best of him, carrying the heavy burden of anticipation. Florida still has what it takes to at least win the SEC East, without all the hype. Over in Tuscaloosa, Nick Saban will have a strong offense, but has to replace nine starters on defense. The stop troops are there to continue another strong campaign, they just need seasoning. The rest of the West division is several notches below, with Arkansas having the most upside with QB Ryan Mallet leading high scoring offense. Georgia has the best chance to surpass Florida, but is still in need of defensive answers after permitting 34 or more points 10 times the last two years. The first seven years under coach Mark Richt, this occurred five times.   Joker Phillips has big shoes to fill as coach, as Kentucky has won seven or more games four straight years, the last time that happened was 1909-1912.

Pac-10

1)      Oregon (2) -23 points

2)      USC (1) -22.5 points

3)      Oregon State (3) -22 points

4)      Washington (4) -18.5 points

5)      Arizona (5) -16.5 points

6)      California (7)-14.5 points

7)      Stanford (6) -13 points

8)      UCLA (8) -9 points

9)      Arizona State (9)-7.5 points

10)Washington State (10)–zero points

Pac-10 Notes – In essence, this is the beginning of a new era for the Pac-10. New members will be joining the league in the not too distant future and they have aggressive new approach from commissioner Larry Scott. Things have also changed in football, with USC no longer guaranteed the top spot in the conference with the departure of Pete Carroll and the probation the university is faced with. There is still ample talent left on the Trojans campus, but not the automatic reload of the past several seasons. Oregon will try and return to Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champions and would have been the odds on favorite except for former Ducks QB Jeremiah Masoli could not avoid problems with the law again. Will this be the year Oregon State finally breaks thru and becomes conference champion? With 60 returning lettermen, the Beavers are as experienced as any team in the country and only USC has more conference wins (27) than OSU (25) since the league went to nine-game format. The middle of the pack could go any which way, with Washington and coach Steve Sarkisian creating the most buzz. It’s time for UCLA to show real progress with Rick Neuheisel not living up to promises thus far.

MAC -East

1)      Temple (1) -32.5 points

2)      Kent State (3) -22 points

3)      Ohio U. (2) -15.5 points

4)      Buffalo (5) -10.5 points

5)      Miami-O (7) -9 points

6)      Akron (6) -8 points

7)      Bowling Green (4) – 1.5 points

MAC –West

1)      Cent. Michigan (4) -14 points

2)      NIU (1) – 9.5 points

3)      Toledo (3) -9 points

4)      W. Michigan (2) -7.5 points

5)      Ball State (5)-7.5 points

6)      E. Michigan (6) -1.5 points

MAC Notes – With football history dating back to 1894, Temple’s years of failure got them expelled from the Big East in 2004 after just 14 years in the conference. This ushered in the (Al) Golden era in 2005 and the former Virginia defensive coordinator has turned the program completely around, as Temple enjoyed first winning season last year since 1990. Now the Owls are believed to be the best team in the MAC and are predicted to end Central Michigan’s mini-dynasty. However, only one of coach Golden’s 19 wins has come against a winning team. The Chippewas actually do have productive players returning to Mt. Pleasant, especially on defense, yet without Dan LeFevour and third new coach in five years, CMU should tumble. This sets the table for Northern Illinois or Western Michigan to break thru, with the Huskies thought to be the top choice. Kent State might be the best defensive squad in the MAC and could go bowling for the first time since 1972 if offense clicks.

WAC

1)      Boise State (1) -45 points

2)      Nevada (2) -22.5 points

3)      Fresno State (3) -21 points

4)      Louisiana Tech (4) -13 points

5)      Utah State (7) -9 points

6)      Idaho (5) -9 points

7)      N. Mexico State (8) – 7.5 points

8)      Hawaii (6)-6.5 points

9)      San Jose St. (9) -6 points

WAC Notes – In horse racing terms it is known as walk-over. This is where the favorite is believed to be so dogmatic; the field literally has no chance. This is the case in the WAC, where the purest thoroughbred is the Broncos of Boise State. Chris Peterson is 49-4 and 30-19 ATS as the head coach, having a non-BCS team being given serious consideration for national championship. The battle for second place or historical upset, centers on Nevada and Fresno State. Both should be very competent offensively, trying to find ways to shore defensive holes. Louisiana Tech, Idaho and Utah State are attempting to reach the next level in the conference and have to fix weaknesses to leap forward. New Mexico State won three games last year, by a total of nine points, not exactly a team on the come.

Sun Belt

1)      Mid. Tenn. State (1) -26.5 points

2)      Troy (2) -20.5 points

3)      North Texas (7) -20 points

4)      Arkansas State (4) -17 points

5)      Florida Atlantic (3) -16 points

6)      Louisiana- Laf. (5) -14.5 points

7)      UL-Monroe (6)-14 points

8)      Florida Int. (8) -13 points

9)      West. Kentucky (9) – 4.5 points

Sun Belt Notes – The Sun Belt could see a changing of the guard with Middle Tennessee State breaking Troy’s stranglehold on the conference in 2010. The Blue Raiders have 14 starters in the fold from last year New Orleans Bowl winner and most importantly, QB Dwight Dasher. Troy probably still has the best roster of athletes in the SBC; nevertheless, they have a great deal of inexperience. The biggest mystery team in the league is North Texas, who is markedly more talented than when coach Todd Dodge took over three years ago, however can this team do an about face after five years of 10-49? Other than Western Kentucky (20 consecutive losses), execution and lucky breaks will fill out the rest of the league standings.

Independents

1)     Notre Dame -12 points

2)     Navy -10 points

3)     Army -2 points

Independent Notes – This area is more challenging and more subjective. What is done is compare roster of starters to closest leagues where they reside. Notre Dame matches up in the Big Ten and would be strictly run of the mill in that league. I placed Navy and Army in the Big East for point of comparison, though they maybe more than any other two teams in the country are more about maxing ability and effort.

Football returns this Thursday and the action heats up with sports bettors sharing their thoughts with their money. Both NFL contests have seen considerable adjustments and a couple of baseball conflicts have also seen the numbers changed rather dramatically. For reasons as to why, read on.

MLB- St. Louis at Washington 7:05 EDT MASN

Maybe the Cardinals just need to face better competition to reclaim the lead in the NL Central. Since the All-Star break, St. Louis has lost six of seven series against teams currently below .500. The most recent was against pathetic Pittsburgh and they are 8-12 versus these lowly clubs compared to 13-3 against teams above .500. Chris Carpenter (14-4, 2.88 ERA) will try and change the Cards fortunes, though online sports betting action players have some doubt, taking the Redbirds from -210 to -195 or less at sports wagering outlets. The demotion hardly seems justified with Carpenter is 5-1 with a 1.99 ERA since the break and St. Louis having won 13 of 15 vs. the Nationals. Washington has lost four in a row and scored five runs on 14 total hits in being swept by the Cubs and are 64-113 after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Jordan Zimmerman returns from Tommy John surgery and has been sharper than a Ginzu knife at Triple-A Syracuse, posting a 0.53 ERA in four starts. Always check the latest baseball and football numbers at SBGGlobal.com.

NFL- St. Louis at New England 7:30 EDT

Sam Bradford will get the start for the Rams and those betting on football are thinking this is like feeding the sheep to the lion. St. Louis was 6.5-point underdog on Monday night and is catching 7.5-points at this juncture. Bradford is forced to start with A.J. Feeley out with injured elbow and thumb. Granted it is the preseason, but Bill Belichick isn’t about to go warm and fuzzy just because Bradford is a rookie signal caller and might test him with early heat to build a quick lead. The Patriots are 20-8 ATS in home preseason non-conference games; however home chalk favorites of 7.5 with the present total, are merely 6-10 ATS when this situation lines up.

MLB- Indianapolis at Green Bay 8:00 EDT ESPN

Huge totals movement for this televised tilt for two teams known for scoring. This contest began at 41.5 and has been bet heavily to 44.5. Here is why sports bettors are pounding this matchup. Both teams will play their first string offenses at least a half if not more and each is expected to want a sharp effort. Both defenses have not shown much in the preseason and there is no reason to believe they will be any more effective in this spot, playing it fairly vanilla. Green Bay just played Saturday in Seattle, thus has short week, travel conditions to deal with and will be expected to sub more liberally, which could cause breakdowns. The Colts are 12-1 OVER in games played on a grass field and the Packers are 7-0 OVER when playing with six or less days rest. A lot of the value has been taken out of the number; nevertheless the wagering public seems to be on the right side.

MLB – Minnesota at Texas 8:05 EDT

In spite of tallying only 12 runs, the Texas starters and relief pitchers have done their job in taking the first three games of the series over fellow first place team Minnesota. Manager Ron Washington now hopes his ace can join the party. Cliff Lee (10-7, 3.09) is 2-4 with a 4.18 ERA since the Rangers acquired him in early July and has really struggled of late with 5.80 ERA in five August starts. His mound opponent is Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.45), who seems to be pitching with a tired left arm. Liriano is 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break, but has failed to complete six innings in each of his last three outings, walking 12 ( 5.87 ERA) in 15 1/3 innings. With two uncertain starters, the total has jumped to 9 from opening 8.5. The Twins are 27-11 OVER after three or more consecutive losses and Texas has two oddities. Lee is 22-7 (Teams record) pitching on Thursday’s with average score 10.7 runs per game and the Rangers are 9-2-1 OVER in Game 4’s.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget

San Diego is 28-5 against the ML as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

Totals Nugget

Indianapolis is 18-6 OVER the first half total as a road underdog of 3.5 points or less vs. the first half line.

Run Line Nugget

Cleveland is 22-47 (-35.5 Units) against the run line after two straight games where they committed no errors, losing by 1.9 RPG.

3DW Sports Betting Line Moves is copyrighted content of Impact Sports Solutions, Inc and Doug Upstone. All rights reserved.

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By Doug Upstone

Baseball has 16-game schedule to review on Saturday, but sports bettors want to whet their appetite with some NFL preseason appetizers. Three games stand out on the gridiron and we delve into the what and why’s of Line Moves. Take a gander at the Bonus info, with a couple NFL nuggets.

NFL- Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants 7:00 EDT

This is one of those crazy line moves you see during the NFL preseason, as Pittsburgh opened as conventional three point road underdogs and swiftly went to three point favorites once it was confirmed Eli Manning was not going to play. Yesterday the Steelers went to four at most wagering outlets and today it has been a feeding frenzy with Pittsburgh up to unfathomable SIX POINTS. The Steelers might well be good wager with two extra days between contests and the G-Men 12-27 ATS playing with six or less days rest, however that is a lot points to give this time of year for an exhibition game. Every single day take time to check the latest baseball and football numbers at SBGGlobal.com.

MLB- Toronto at Boston 7:10 EDT RSN, NESN

Toronto brought out the heavy lumber and brutalized Jon Lester and Boston 16-2 Friday night. Those following the sports betting odds believe the Red Sox will bounce back and have moved them from -129 on the money line to -142 or higher. Boston is trying to chase down the Yankees and Blue Jays for playoff berth and turn to Daisuke Matsuzaka (8-4, 4.17 ERA). The Japanese right-hander has been money for Red Sox backers with 6-0 record (3.79 ERA) and Boston has won his last nine starts versus the Blue Jays. The BoSox need a good effort from Dice-K after their pitchers were knocked around for 20 base hits. Boston is only 9-13 at Fenway Park against division opponents this season; however the Red Sox and Matsuzaka are 30-13 in night games the last three seasons.

NFL- N.Y. Jets at Carolina 8:00 EDT

This matchup isn’t so much about the end result, but what happened in the middle. Carolina was 1.5-point home favorite last Tuesday morning and by Thursday were 1.5 or 2-point underdogs. The story in the New York papers and blogs has Rex Ryan not playing is regulars a great deal, since they just played on Monday and an avalanche of money has come piling back towards the Panthers, now a one-point choice to win. With the total listed at 34, it is at least worth noting the Jets are 10-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 32.5 and 35 points.

Up to 295% percent in total bonuses from SBGGlobal.com for new and existing clients. Click here for complete details.

 

NFL – Houston at New Orleans 8:00 EDT CBS

Most online sports wagering football bettors are aware coach Gary Kubiak is 7-2 ATS in last nine road contests in August and 7-0 OVER if the visitor in non-conference clash. New Orleans is just 2-6 ATS in previous eight home assignments. As witnessed in the complimentary PlayBook football newsletters, Super Bowl champions are indifferent this week of the preseason campaign, with 6-12-1 record and horrendous 3-16 spread mark. No wonder the Saints are down to a single point favorite after beginning at -2.5.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget

Ubaldo Jimenez and Colorado is 15-1 after loss this campaign.

Totals Nugget

The Houston Texans are 11-2 OVER in road non-conference games.

First Half Line Nugget

The Seattle Seahawks are 8-0 ATS against the first half line over the last two-plus years.

See you Monday.

3DW Line Moves is copyrighted content of Impact Sports Solutions, Inc and Doug Upstone. All rights reserved.

Please feel free to forward this to friends; just keep the entire article intact and unaltered.

By Doug Upstone, 3DailyWinners.net

For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know certain tendencies of the head coach. Though virtually every coach could care less about the point spread on any game they are involved in coaching, word will filter down thru various channels that high-profile alumni with large bank accounts wouldn’t mind if the home team covered a spread against a particular opponent. Though no task master will worry about such a trivial matter consciously leading into a contest, given the right set of circumstances late in a game with his team comfortably ahead, but not covering the spread, he might be inclined to run up the score.

Though there is no way to prove a coaches motive, in 1995 coach Tom Osborne of Nebraska had the No.1 team in the country heading into last regular season conflict against Oklahoma at Lincoln. The Cornhuskers were monstrous 34-point favorites and basically was toying with the Sooners, leading 30-0 late in the game. In the final drive, Nebraska went for a first down THREE times on fourth down and eventually scored a touchdown to cover the spread, with 37-0 shutout. If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I never would have believed it.

Another example was 2008 when Florida hosted Miami in Gainesville. The Gators were 23-point favorites against the Hurricanes and that night despite dominating the action, led just 23-3 in the final minutes. Urban Meyer could have easily run out the clock deep in Miami territory, but instead had Tim Tebow throw two passes towards end zone before settling for field goal and a Push. 

Most bettors might know about the head coach where they reside or even the coaches within the conference. Only a select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches in the FBS.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Coaches only at present school)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force 11-4

Kevin Sumlin – Houston 8-2

Chris Ault – Nevada 23-9

Chris Peterson – Boise State 14-7

Urban Meyer - Florida 18-10

Worst –Rodriguez - Michigan 4-9, Dodge - No. Texas 4-9

Notes- The most common denominator about all five of these winning coaches is they are offensive-minded in their approach. Each does it a little differently, yet they all have their own unique style that allows them to separate from others within their given conferences and it permits those betting on sports to have more confidence. Calhoun, Peterson and Meyer look to be the most trustworthy since they have defenses that can also help. This won’t be the last time you see Rich Rod mentioned as Play Against candidate.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Bo Pelini – Nebraska 9-3

Art Briles – Baylor 8-3

Rick Stockstill – M.T.S.  15-6

Paul Johnson – Georgia Tech 10-4

Houston Nutt – Ole Miss 8-4

Worst –Rich Rod-Michigan 2-7, Fairchild – CSU 3-9

Notes- What every college fan that participates in football betting likes is a tough-minded team that they can trust as a visitor. Invariably, the point spread will be fairly low catching or handing out points in this role and a select few coaches consistently know how to prepare a team for this type of battle. Pelini and Nutt tend to be more emotional, while the other three are business-like in their approach. It doesn’t matter how it gets done, everyone just wants a coach and team that gives them the best opportunity to cash winners.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force 13-4

Rick Stockstill – M.T.S. 15-6

Mike Gundy – Okla. State 19-9

Chris Ault -Nevada 27-15

Jim Tressel – Ohio State 54-38

Notes- Any one head coach that can make this list has different qualities. It’s is particularly impressive as football oddsmakers know whom these individuals are and are shading a point or more towards their teams in this particular role. To be able to make this group the team has to be well-prepared and giving effort that exceeds the norm. Curious to watch how Gundy does since the cupboard is rather bare at Stillwater. Two Big Ten coaches make the wrong list, with one more familiar here and with the NCAA rules committee.

Worst –Rich Rod-Michigan 2-9, Fitzgerald – Northwestern 4-12

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Butch Davis – UNC 11-5

Al Golden – Temple 20-12

Mike Price – UTEP 20-13

Jim Grobe – Wake Forest 33-19

Frank Beamer – Virg. Tech 50-34

Worst –Sherman –Texas A&M 4-9, Gundy – Okie State 9-18

Notes- Some coaches on the gridiron just have a knack for selling their squad on playing their best as underdogs. They use every cliché imaginable, “circle the wagons”, “us against the world”, “nobody respects us”, you name it, and they find a way to convince young men to play better than what the linemakers and public perceive they should. Coaches Golden and Beamer will not have many chances to be placed in this position, but they are certainly reliable. Cannot help but notice that how good Gundy is a favorite, yet he is equally as bad as an underdog, which might tell you a little bit about his ability to be a front-runner and maybe not much more. 

Best coaches Off a SU Win, ATS records-

Al Golden – Temple 12-5

Rick Stockstill – M.T.S 19-7

Frank Solich – Ohio U. 19-9

Troy Calhoun - Air Force 16-8

Chris Peterson – Boise State 28-16

Worst –Stewart – West Virg. 6-11, Roberts– Ark. State 11-25

Notes- The two biggest surprises on this list are Stockstill and Solich. If Middle Tennessee State can win the Sun Belt Conference and have another bowl win, a bigger payday at a larger university might be in coach Stockstill’s future. Coach Solich doesn’t bring in great recruiting classes to Athens, yet he maximizes the talent on hand and has them believing they should contend for MAC crown each year. Head coach “smiley-face” Stewart hasn’t met a game that his team can’t find a way not to cover. Coach Roberts at Arkansas State flies under the radar with his Arkansas State team terribly up and down.

Best coaches Off a SU Loss, ATS records-

Urban Meyer – Florida 7-2

Jim Tressel – Ohio State 12-5

Bob Stoops – Oklahoma 15-7

Randy Edsall – UConn 31-16

Mack Brown – Texas 15-8

Worst – Fairchild-CSU 3-10, Rich Rod- Michigan 3-9

Notes- Tried to keep this to minimum of at least 10 games, but coach Meyer does not fit this category often, but he has his teams VERY prepared following a defeat. It should be noted four of the five top coaches on this list have won a national championship. Coach Edsall’s character was proven after UConn player Jasper Howard was tragically killed last season. Here is a hot rumor gaining quiet momentum. If the Jacksonville Jaguars have the kind of season as expected, Jack Del Rio will be fired, and Edsall is on very short list right now to be the next guy. Another Rich Rod sighting.

Catch more of Doug at 3Daily Winners.net.

Think about this for a minute; say you gave up drinking beer for a month. You are used to Guinness or some of the other heavier brews on the market. You dropped a few pounds and decided to treat yourself, but not go crazy and thought a Michelob Ultra is the way to ease back in. That accurately describes the NFL Hall of Fame Game, not overly satisfying after months of no football, but it beats the heck out of watching the World Cup.

Cincinnati and Dallas are defending division champions and each will try to use that as a springboard to bigger and better things in 2010.

The Bengals were one of the more conservative offensive teams in the NFL last season (26^th is passing yards) in putting together 10-6 (6-10 ATS) campaign. The front office tried to rectify that situation by giving quarterback Carson Palmer more weapons.

Cincinnati drafted tight end Jermaine Gresham from Oklahoma and added former Tampa Bay wideout Antonio Bryant. In the past couple of weeks, they also brought Terrell Owens on board to shore up the position, suggesting there will be no shortage of commentary with T.O. and Chad Ochocinco.

Coach Marvin Lewis is 15-13 ATS in exhibition contests in his tenure at Cincinnati.

Neither the Bengals nor Dallas is expected to have the regulars play more than a series or two.

The Cowboys were 11-5 (9-7 ATS) in the regular season a year ago and are definitely looking to put the playoff disaster in Minneapolis (34-3) behind them as quickly as possible. Most feel this is a critical year for Tony Romo and coach Wade Phillips, both needing to move to the next level.

The Cowboys brass is disappointed rookie receiver Dez Bryant won’t be available for this tilt, having suffered a high ankle sprain in practice last week. Bryant was the star of camp to that point. Otherwise, Dallas is a mostly veteran team and places little stock in games like this as 5-20 ATS record in the first two weeks of the preseason proves.

SBGGlobal.com has Dallas as three-point favorites in Canton, with the total at 32.5. The Cowboys are 18-31 ATS as preseason favorites, while Cincinnati has covered six of last nine as underdogs.

This is the first ever meeting between these teams before the regular season.

Catch more of Doug at 3Daily Winners.

 
Last night turned out to be a bad night to be a sports bettor favoring the New York Yankees and Kansas City. The Yankees were bludgeoned 10-2 by the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto laid a 13-1 beat-down on the Royals. How might either team respond today?

One characteristic to look for is the money line number. The Yankees (58-34, +5.7 units) are a -185 ML favorite and Kansas City is -160 betting choice at online sports betting destination BetUS.com. The Yankees number appears less justified (it almost always is), since the Angels Joel Pineiro (10-6, 3.95 ERA) has won seven games in a row (Halos have emerged victorious in eight straight Pineiro starts) and his teammates have rapped out 56 hits in their last five outings.

New York still has beaten L.A. 10 of last 15 at Yankees Stadium and manager Joe Girardi give the ball to Javier Vazquez (7-7, 4.45), who has a 1.80 ERA and WHIP of 0.900 in his last three starts, however is only 1-1, with his teammates making hardly a whimper at the plate totaling four runs in those starts.

Kansas City (40-53, -0.9) hasn’t lost a home series to Toronto in seven years and will send the reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (5-9, 3.67) to keep the streak alive. Greinke hasn’t been nearly as effective in 2010, having difficulties locating his pitches, surrendering more walks and base hits this season.

This is an issue facing a Toronto batting order that is finding a number of empty places where fielders can’t catch the ball, with astonishing 65 base-knocks in previous five contests.

The Royals may lead baseball in batting average at .281, but they are 22^nd in runs scored (4.3 RPG). Conversely, the Blue Jays have a .245 team batting average (27^th), even with this hot hitting streak, yet are 11^th in runs scored, thanks to leading the Majors in home runs. At least Grienke has kept the ball in the yard, having gone four starts since last being taken deep.

The Yankees and Royals both fit an incredibly profitable sports betting strategy that reads this way:

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are swinging the lumber, batting .315 or better over their last five games, playing on Wednesday.

The whole “hump day” thing is a bit of a mystery, however the results are not at 66-11, 85.7 percent the last 13 seasons. This super system has not been in play as much in recent years, nonetheless is opulent 16-3 since 2006. This sports wagering tip also comes with a certain comfort level, as the averaging winning margin over 77 plays is 2.8 runs per game.

Both of today’s contests are in afternoon action, thus if this makes sense, act expediently.

Catch more of Doug at 3Daily Winners

A quick glance at the standings today has New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Texas in first place in the American League, with Tampa Bay as wild card team, using the dreaded term “if the season ended today”.

In the National League, it is Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego, with Colorado and the Los Angeles Dodgers tied for the final playoff spot.

Without too much thought, the White Sox, Reds and Padres appear to be the most vulnerable of giving up their division leads by October 3 (the last day of the regular season), as the Pale Hose have to uncover another starting pitcher to replace Jake Peavy, who was coming on and the two clubs from the senior circuit have a “pretender” feel about them. However, based on recent history, all six division leaders could be relatively good “play on” teams the rest of the year.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not suggesting to play these teams every day, in fact in some cases you might not want to play them at all for week given a slump or rugged road trip. Let’s face it; can you really expect San Diego to improve on baseball best +17.2 units with their 51-37 first half record? Not by much if at all really. Nonetheless, as a sage bettor told me more than once, “A fool and his money are soon to part without a look in the rearview mirror.”

The last two years, nine of the 12 All-Star break leaders went on to capture their respective division crowns and 10 of 12 made their way into the postseason. That’s 83.3 percent, a rather healthy figure and look around at any website that has full season baseball units won/lost records, will mostly show these clubs in black numbers and in the Top 10 in baseball for that particular year.

2009 (All-Star break position – final standings position)

Boston - 1^st – Wild card

Detroit – 1^st – Minnesota wins division in playoff

L.A. Angels – 1^st – 1^st

Philadelphia – 1^st -1^st

St. Louis – 1^st – 1^st

L.A. Dodgers 1^st – 1^st

2008 (All-Star break position – final standings position)

Tampa Bay – 1^st – 1^st

Chic. White Sox – 1^st -1^st

L.A. Angels – 1^st – 1^st

Philadelphia – 1^st – 1^st

Chic. Cubs – 1^st – 1^st

Arizona – 1^st – L.A. Dodgers win division

Since 2002, 30 of the 48 All-Star break leaders have gone on to be division champions and five more were playing postseason baseball.

With rare exception do these teams completely fold, unless ravaged by injury. That’s not to say any squad is above a costly September swoon, like the New York Mets in 2007 (5-12 record - Sept. 14 until season end) and 2008 (6-10 close) or the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox (Sept. 8-27, 7-12).

While crazy things do happen for those betting sports, a good team is still a good team and often playoff contender’s feast on other clubs whose season has long since been over except for completing the schedule. (Insert Pittsburgh here, since they have endured the curse of Barry Bonds, without a winning season since he left after 1992 campaign)

Taking on sports betting lines from oddsmakers is a different proposition in the second half of the schedule, as they start to add volume to first place favorites, taking the stance if you want bet the chalk, you need the intestinal fortitude to back it up with cash. However, it is not uncommon for these types of teams to win five or more in a row and if you started the winning streak with them, much like betting additional numbers on a craps table with hot shooter, the winnings more than offset one loss or bad roll.

As always, be selective, pick your spots and don’t be anxious or greedy, two absolute sins of gambling.

One final point, understand the workings of the wild card. In the past eight years, the AL team the ultimately earned the wild card slot was already in this position at the break or in first place. That is good news for Tampa Bay.

Conversely in the NL, only the 2006 Dodgers, who were tied for first place with San Diego, have made the postseason as the fourth team supposedly poised to be playing in October. This is not good news for Rockies or Dodgers backers at present.

For more, see Doug at 3DailyWinners.net.

The interpretation of how baseball was to be viewed differently came about with Bill James book “Baseball Abstract”. He and his fellow scribes developed an illuminating way to no longer take a batting and earned run averages at face value, rather look inside the numbers to understand what it really might mean. The term “sabermetric” became part of the language of baseball in the late 1980’s and still is widely renowned in today’s world. 

This has lead to other methods of interpreting statistics, opening the door for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com to name a couple. This in-depth type of analysis of numbers has benefited fans and those who love to wager on baseball. For those seeking opportunity to place futures wagers on baseball, being able to see halfway thru the season eliminates some of the guess work that appeared cumbersome back in March.

Today you have a track record to follow and an inkling what might occur in the last 81 games of the baseball season. The oddsmakers do also, and a San Diego preseason wager of Over/Under 74 wins at Betonline.com looks safer today than it did before the season started. However, the corrective reading goggles of the halfway point of the season has the Padres as less favorable +110 choice to win the NL West compared back in March when they +600.

One element of James’ work that is as fresh today as it was when he first brought up new topics is the runs scored vs. runs allowed aspect of the game. If you score more runs than your opponent, you cannot lose. If you score a great deal more runs then the opposition, than you might have a dominate team. From the wagering standpoint, the value in this information is which teams are playing to their potential, which are playing above their potential and which are playing below. The last two elements are especially valuable, since if a team or teams continue on the same path, ultimately, they should reach their water mark and play accordingly.

Our goal in making long and short term wagers for baseball is to ensure equal representation of all teams. Since we have the time at the All-Star, we’ll look who at every Major League squad has played thru 81 games or half the schedule. This presents a balanced look at all the teams.

How this exercise works is to multiply the number of runs scored and square it, followed by doing the same with number of runs allowed. We’ll use the New York Yankees as the example.

Yankees runs scored – 436  

Yankees runs allowed – 340

436 x 436 = 190096                 

340 x 340 = 115600

Add the two numbers together and divide the runs scored into the total to achieve a percentage.

190096 + 115600 = 305696

190096 divided by 305696 = .621

Take the number 81 (half the season) and multiply by .621, this gives you a total of 50.3. What this means is the Yankees should have a record of 50-31, based on runs scored and allowed and their actual record was exactly the same, thus right on schedule.

Any difference greater than three games means something is occurring that needs to be understood. Typically, bullpen production or lack of it is the biggest culprit in terms of wins and losses. Below is the complete list showing each team’s actual record and record based on RS/RA methodology and projected season total if they were to play exactly the same way.

American League (actual – projected- possible season record)

AL East

New York Yankees  50-31 - 50-31- 100-62

Boston  49-32  - 47-34 – 94-68

Tampa Bay  48-33 - 51-30 – 102-60

Toronto  41-40 - 44-37 – 82-80

Baltimore  25-56 – 25-56 – 50-112

AL Central

Detroit  45-36 – 41-40 – 82-80

Minnesota  44-37 - 46-35 – 92-70

Chicago WS  43-38 - 41-40 – 82-80

Kansas City 36-45 - 37-44 – 74-88

Cleveland 32-49 - 33-48 – 66-96

AL West

Texas  48-33 - 48-33 - 96-66

L.A. Angels  45-36 - 40-41 – 80-82

Oakland  40-41 - 40-41 – 80-82

Seattle  34-47 - 32-49 – 64-98

AL Observations – The biggest surprise out of the AL East is Tampa Bay projected to win its division. Though most sports books still taking action on division titles have the Rays as the third choice to win AL East, Tampa Bay brings plenty to the party. How they have managed to overachieve thus far is because they have the highest save percentage in the league and concede the lowest on-base percentage in the junior circuit (.305). Another reason Tampa Bay might be around longer than most expected is 25-10 record in games decided by four or more runs, showing their dominance.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen has saved them in the first half of the year, however their pitching as a whole might well send them plummeting in the second half of the season unless they swing a trade for another starter. The Chicago White Sox are the hottest team in baseball with an eight-game winning streak, but have to find a way to replace Jake Peavy who is gone for the year.

The Los Angeles Angels limp into the break having lost eight of last 10. Normally, if a team outperforms its RS/RA numbers, the bullpen is the reason. The overall season numbers for the Halos bullpen is meager, however during their hot June (19-10), the pen actually pitched well. Unless they pick up another bat for the lineup and the entire pitching staff improves, the Texas Rangers could well run away with this very weak division.

National League (actual – projected - possible season record)

NL East

Atlanta  48-33 - 48-33 – 96-66

N.Y. Mets  45-46 - 46-35 – 92-70

Philadelphia  43-38 - 46-35 – 92-70

Florida  38-43 - 43-38 – 86-76

Washington  35-46 -35-46 – 70-92

NL Central

Cincinnati  46-35 - 45-36 -90-72

St. Louis  44-37 - 47-34 -94-68

Milwaukee  37-44 -38-43 - 76-86

Chicago Cubs 35-46 -36-45 – 72-90

Houston  32-39 - 26-55 – 52-110

Pittsburgh  29-52 - 20-61 – 40-122

NL West

San Diego  48-33 - 47-34 – 94-68

L.A. Dodgers  45-36 - 43-38 – 86-76

Colorado  43-38 - 44-37 – 88-74

San Francisco 41-40 – 44-37 - 88-74

Arizona 32-49 – 32-49 – 64-98

NL Observations – The two-time defending NL champion Phillies have outperformed their record, thanks to their ability to rule the NL Central. Philadelphia is 17-8 and +39 in RS/RA against that division (+48 overall). With no Chase Utley likely until September, the Phillies might not have enough hitting or pitching to catch Atlanta. The Florida Marlins numbers suggest they should be better, which is why manager Fredi Gonzalez was shown the door. The Fish are tied for the most blown saves in the NL and their 11-17 record in one run games speaks volumes.

The NL Central appears to be a two team race the rest of the season and how they perform against the other four mediocre clubs should determine the Reds or Cardinals fate. If skipper Tony LaRussa can find ways to score more runs, St. Louis should win division based on numbers.

It’s interesting to note both Houston and Pittsburgh have out-performed (at least on some level) their actual RS/RA figures. Not sure what hiring former Astros star Jeff Bagwell as hitting coach is going to do for team that is 9-28 in games decided by four or more runs. Then there are the Pirates. Consider Pittsburgh has been outscored by 194 runs this season. To put that number into perspective, that is more than fellow last place teams Seattle and Arizona combined (-179 total). The Bucs are a walking play against run line team, losing by 2.2 runs per game and are 4-29 in contests determined by four runs or more.

San Diego is not a fluke, perfectly built for their vast acreage called Petco Park, with more than enough pitching to keep them competitive on the road. Will the lack of offensive production hold up, we’ll find out. Based on first half play, if one team in the NL West could improve, the San Francisco Giants should if they could squeeze more out of their batting order.

For more, see Doug at 3DailyWinners.net.

Nothing official has come forward, but expect Paul Pierce has to be pleased going back to Los Angeles and he might even fly back with his teammates leading in the series. Say what you want about the Boston Celtics, this group is buoyant and tenacious, from the starters to the bench players and their coach might be a blast at a black jack table, hitting on 16 because he feels a five coming as next card.

If Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, Rasheed Wallace and Tony Allen sound like the makeup of an NBA expansion team, that belief would likely be correct.

However, this group of bench jockey's scored on the first nine possessions of the final stanza for the Celtics and largely cemented the game away against the Lakers regular starters.

Coach Doc Rivers took a gamble, not calculated, but heart-felt and emotional, that this contingent had just a bit more to give with over 240 seconds left in Game 4 and his team leading by nine points and waved back his starting subs back to the bench.

"Hell, Rondo and all of them were begging me to keep guys in. 'Don't take them out. Don't take them out,'" Rivers recalled. "It was great. That was the loudest I've seen our bench, and it was our starters cheering from the bench. I thought it was terrific."

This enabled the Celtics to tie the series and moved their record to 8-3 SU and ATS at TD Garden in the postseason with one more to go.

Boston could be gaining some advantages as the series is wearing on. Pierce was much more efficient in running off screen and roles, getting Ron Artest out of his face, scoring 19 points and handing out five assists.

The player formerly known as "Big Baby" has been a man, as Davis' internal flame has him continually outhustling the Los Angeles big men and he found a way to not let his height be a detriment in the paint against the taller L.A. players in making seven of 10 shots and collecting five boards (four offensive).

Going from the speed and quickness of Rajon Rondo to Nate Robinson allows the Celtics to have accelerator to the floor like a NASCAR driver in a straight away if they choose for all 48 minutes.

The Lakers give the appearance of being in control, but cracks are formulating. Andrew Bynum knee not only limits him, but forces Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom to log more minutes against the more physical Boston frontline.

Though Kobe Bryant scored 33 points in last conflict, the Allen Gang (Tony and Ray) are making life difficult, as witnessed by his seven turnovers. 

Bryant said, "They got all the energy points, the hustle points, the second-chance points, points in the paint, beat us to the loose balls," Bryant continued. "I mean, that's how the game turned around."

For the third time in this year's playoffs, Los Angeles is 2-2 and they are

19-6 ATS when a series is tied and 18-6 ATS in road games having lost two of their last three tilts. The extra day off should help Bynum and the exhausted looking Lakers should be fresher.

Sportsbook.com has Boston as three-point home faves with total slipping to

188 after a pair of Under's.

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in last 10 NBA Finals' affairs and 5-0 ATS with two days off. They are 6-0-1 UNDER in last seven home assignments.

The Lakers are still a potent 37-21 as an underdog, including 5-2 ATS in previous seven tries. Phil Jackson must devise ways to get better looks and increase the tempo since his club is 15-6 UNDER as a road underdog of six points or less this season, which has them being outscored 3.9 points per game when this happens.

ABC will have Game 5 at 8:00 Eastern and the team that snares the most rebounds ins 4-0 SU and ATS in the Finals.

In the history of the NBA, two names stand above the rest, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. These two franchises have combined to win 32 NBA titles (the Lakers won five in Minneapolis). Boston has beaten the Lakers nine of 11 meetings in the NBA Finals which substantiates the point for many people of substance over style.

The Lakers like to make the argument that in spite of having a couple less titles than the Celtics, theirs is the better franchise having a bit of Jack Nicklaus in them (18 major’s titles, 17 second’s), finishing runner-up 16 times.

What makes this appointment television is history. For many of the players let alone those tuned in to watch, this matchup is about Larry Bird, Bill Russell, Magic Johnson and Jerry West. What made this important is they met one another over a short period of time. Boston defeated the Lakers seven times from 1959 to 1969 and they met three times in four years from 1984 to 1987.

That is what makes this renewal even better than two June’s ago. The last time basketball fans had a 21-year break between heated encounters; this time most of the combatants are the same that met two years prior. What is different this time compared to 2008 when the Celtics hung their first NBA championship banner since 1986?

Trust and Age
Though Ray Allen was having brutal postseason two years ago, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce in particular were at the top of their respective games. Each was able to dominate for lengthy periods of any contest and did in those six games.

Today, neither KG nor Pierce has that same ability; both can make a series of outstanding plays to help Boston, just in a shorter time span. The Celtics are helped by Allen being a much stronger contributor, but the driving force of this Doc Rivers club is Rajon Rondo. The former Kentucky product has exploded onto the scene in the playoffs and been the catalyst behind the Celtics success. The C’s now feed off what Rondo delivers.

Two years ago, Kobe did not trust his teammates. He demanded total effort in the biggest games and they did not deliver to his liking. Last year’s title drive was all about finishing the deal and becoming champions again and thou Bryant has his doubts from time to time about the 2010 edition of the Lake Show, he knows what to expect from Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol and to a lesser degree Lamar Odom and Ron Artest.

It’s all about the matchups
How does Boston limit Kobe’s effectiveness? Doc Rivers coach’s by feel more than X’s and O’s during games. Rivers will go after Bryant with Baskin-Robbins approach, using a variety of methods. Guard Kobe tight to force him to drive into lane where the Celtics big men can create issues. Let him shoot from the outside to prevent him from getting fouled too often and adding up points. They will double Kobe on the wings or single him up in the middle of the floor and go with what works best.

Derek Fisher took it as personal mission to stay with Steve Nash in West finals, but he has nowhere near enough foot speed to stay with Rondo. That means Bryant will see Rondo aplenty and if Boston wants to slow the pace, L.A. will be cool with that process, since Bryant can use his size and wing span to stay in front of Rondo. Expect coach Rivers to dictate to Rondo to run at every opportunity to maximize his effectiveness.

Pierce and Artest is a potential swing matchup in the series. Pierce’s jab step jumper is more deadly when he sets up defender by driving to the bucket. If he can make Artest indecisive about his intentions, he could frustrate Ron-Ron into drawing silly fouls and taking him mentally out of the game.

Artest has to knock down enough shots to keep Pierce honest on defense and prevent him from clogging driving lanes. Artest’s job on the other end of the floor is to limit Pierce’s scoring ability and work him so that his legs don’t give him the leverage he needs late in the game to make jumpers.

In the frontcourt, Boston will try and manhandle the Lakers bigs with their imposing strength using Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to roughhouse. Los Angeles should be accustomed to these tactics, expect Phil Jackson to try and manufacture matchups playing to the strengths of Gasol, Odom and Andrew Bynum in the triangle offense.

Coaching counts
In 2008, the Rivers vs. Jackson coaching matchup was thought to be akin to choosing between Snookie of “Jersey Shore” and Megan Fox. Rivers it turns out is the right coach for Boston, continually pushing his club to do better thru effort and precision and working game plans with mastermind assistant Tom Thibodeau.

Jackson was almost passive when his club lost to the Celtics in the finals two seasons ago, but has been much more involved the last two years, not sitting idly by wanting players to learn from adversity. He’s been more aggressive in substitution patterns and back to trying different bench players in various situations to find the spark when needed.

ATS nuts and bolts

Both teams were unreliable home teams wagers with the Lakers 42-7 and 21-27-2 ATS record and the Celtics 31-19 and 19-30-1 ATS. Given their ability and skill, each was a factor as visitors with Boston 31-18 (26-22-1 ATS) and L.A. 27-22 (22-26-1 ATS).

In the last three years the Celtics “Big Three” is 7-5 and 9-2 ATS against Los Angeles. The road team has won five games outright of the previous 13 meetings, however just one was in the finals in 2008.

You will read the home court is not a significant factor because of how the visitors have played lately, but if you are making series wager, the teams with home court advantage has won eight of last ten.

What happens?

Only once in the previous 25 years has seed other than No. 1-3 won the NBA championship and Boston was a four seed coming into the postseason. Eddie House and Leon Powe were significant players for the Celtics in the last finals meeting, both play elsewhere today.

Gasol and Bryant together are better players than previous finals confrontation and the Lakers are 44-0 in any series with Jackson as coach if they win Game 1.

This will be rugged, physical series, with the trophy staying in L.A.
Doug’s Pick- L.A. Lakers (-180) in seven over Boston (+150)

Odds from Betonline.com.

Of the various Major League baseball series that had the possibility of being intriguing in the middle of May, this would not have been one of them before the season started. But much like “The little engine that could”, the San Diego Padres (+12.3 units) have the best record in the National League at 22-12 and also have the fattest lead of any division leaders at 3.5 games after sweeping San Francisco at their yard.

Last season a messy divorce between owner John Moores and his wife Becky left the Padres in limbo and the organization was cut to barest of minimums, except for the face of the franchise Adrian Gonzalez. Last year’s rag-a-muffin bunch won 75 games somehow, however most baseball experts considered that a fluke and oddsmakers put a cap of 71 wins on San Diego for 2010 with its new ownership that lacks deep pockets.

What has caused the Pads to be so good this season, tremendous pitching. San Diego leads the NL in ERA at 2.61, as they concede the lowest batting average at .221 and lowest on-base percentage at .291. Those numbers improve at spacious PETCO Park, where the Padres allow a mere 2.4 runs per game, which leads to 11-5 record.

Offensively, San Diego was last in most major categories a season ago and while this group doesn’t remind many of Cincinnati’s “Big Red Machine” of 1970’s, they are at least adequate at 4.3 RPG.

In the series opener, former Dodger John Garland (4-2, 1.71 ERA) will start for the Padres. “Garland has done a heck of a job,” Los Angeles manager Joe Torre told the Dodgers’ official website. “He’s a good guy to settle down a young staff. He’s simple: ‘Just give me the ball.’”

With the L.A. offense scoring 5.3 RPG, San Diego is 9-1 vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs game on the year and is a -140 money line favorite at Sportbet.com with total Ov7.5. Garland last pitched on Saturday and is 11-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Dodgers will give the ball to Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16) who is making his first start since May, 26, 2007 after 14 relief appearances this season having spent 2008 in Japan and 2009 in Triple-A.

“It’s been a long time, almost two years,” Ortiz said. “I’m a very positive guy. I knew I could do this, being back in the big leagues.”

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

While much of the state of California wants to boycott Arizona, don’t count the Dodgers (-5.7) among them, after sweeping the Diamondbacks into downtown Phoenix, giving them four straight wins and six of seven to square up their record at 17-17. Los Angeles ownership is going thru the same thing San Diego did as Frank and Jamie McCourt are involved in bitter divorce proceedings which includes who actually owns the team.

Though the Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, they have a team ERA of 4.68, which is 12^th in the senior circuit, very un-Dodger like. Because of the divorce, GM Ned Colletti is unable to make any moves that might improve their pitching and is scrambling for five reliable starters and an inconsistent bullpen.

One of the more dependable starters has been Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.96) who once again followed up with brilliance off a stinker. He threw just 1 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in allowing seven runs and followed that up with eight shutout innings on two hits and nine strikeouts against Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers are 8-2 when the young lefty pitches the second game of a series and are 27-11 on Saturday’s.

Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97) takes the ball for the Friars, who have averaged 9.2 runs in his six starts. Correia in fact is 20-0 when his team totals four or more runs in his career. San Diego is 5-0 when he the middle game starting pitcher and they are perfect 7-0 against left-handed opposing hurlers since Apr. 20. Correia will pitch with heavy heart, since his brother was tragically killed in hiking accident last week.

Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles

At press time, Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.61) is not officially listed as the starting pitcher for the Padres, though it is his turn in the rotation. The easy tossing port-sider finished last season outstanding and has continued into this year. LeBlanc’s fastball seldom hits 90 MPH, but his late-breaking curveball and devastating change-up causes a large number of ugly swings. This will be the only day game in the series and if he starts as presumed, LeBlanc has 0.82 ERA in two daytime contests.

With L.A.’s lack of maneuverability, the one pitcher Torre needed was Chad Billingsley (3-2, 4.82) who has not had command most of the season. Off last year’s second half fade, Torre has a quick hook for Billingsley, who has yet to pitch past six innings this season for a club that needs extended outings to protect what has been mediocre bullpen work. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.71 ERA in his career against the Padres, 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA at PETCO Park.

Game 3 Edge: San Diego

This I-5 series will be surrounded by ample excitement with Saturday’s conflict a sell-out and the other two contests either will be or very close to. This will be a good test for both clubs still early in the 2010 campaign as a gauge to where they are in the division. As long as San Diego doesn’t get too excited, their superior pitching should be enough to capture the series.

Sportbet.com series odds: Los Angeles Even, San Diego -130

Doug’s Pick: San Diego

The source of the question you are about to read might seem a little strange, but it turns out to be exactly correct in breaking down Atlanta and Orlando series. “Is the anticipation of some future pleasure better than the actual experience?”

Winnie the Pooh posed that question before eating honey and the Hawks of Atlanta are wondering the same thing in saying “…we’re looking forward to seeing what we can do in the playoffs against Orlando”. After being trounced by 43 points (Atlanta missed a push against the spread by a mere 34 digits) the first thought that comes to mind is “really?”

Atlanta was actually competitive for the first 12 minutes, trailing only 25-23 and they went into somnolence. The Birds scored a grand total of 21 points in the middle two quarters and gave new meaning to the NBA Playoff slogan “Amazing is ……?

Coach Mike Woodson could go to Home Depot, buy all the paint his credit card would allow and it still wouldn’t cover up this stink bomb.

After a one game reprieve against a Milwaukee club that in all fairness isn’t in Atlanta’s world talent-wise, the Hawks reverted back to being the Hawks on the playoff road. Now 2-11 ATS (aver. loss 19.9 PPG) on postseason excursions, Atlanta showed exactly why they don’t belong with NBA elite.

After passing the ball around for a few first quarter assists and buckets, Woodson proved he really has no control of this team as Joe “iso” Johnson and Jamal “shot craver” Crawford were a combined 5 for 22 from the field, which is truly “amazing”.

The Hawks are 4-18 ATS away from home versus good teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game after the mid-point of the season the last three years and might have to use Dictionary.com to look up the word – team.

Josh Smith was the only player that had a descent stat sheet with 7-14 shooting and three steals, but he took silly fouls and continues to play “street ball” on an NBA court. In his defense, just think what Atlanta would have shot (they were 34.6 percent) for game if Smith had not made half his shots?

Dwight Howard only played just over 28 minutes, but this time it wasn’t because of foul trouble, it was because it was a total demolition by Orlando. Howard had 21 points, 12 boards and five blocks and the only word that came to mind watching Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia trying to stop “Superman” was “helpless”. In fact, the Atlanta big men really wanted so little to do with Howard he couldn’t find enough of their players to commit his usual three or four reckless fouls.

Oddsmakers like those at BetUS.com can’t overreact to 43-point cave-ins and the Hawks are nine-point underdogs, with total of 189.5. Maybe a hug and drinking from their favorite sippy-cup will make Atlanta feel all better and even after being throttled; they are 8-1 ATS after scoring 85 or fewer points. 

Coach Stan Van Gundy probably wouldn’t mind a competitive contest, since it appears the next round could be coming soon and his team is 29-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Orlando is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the unimposing Hawks are 20-7 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.

Stayed tuned to TNT at 8:00 Eastern to witness the next massacre or if Atlanta can really play with heart, for a change.

The Mavericks and Trailblazers enter their respective contests Thursday with a singular thought, force a Game 7. Dallas passed their first test, routing San Antonio at home, now they will have to elevate their game to stave off elimination as the No. 2 seed in the West. Portland suffered their third “Whose your daddy” pasting by Phoenix Monday night and will try and extend series by eclipsing the Suns by playing at slower pace.

Coaching could be the key

Forget the players from Dallas and San Antonio for a second and think about the two coaches. No coach is going to win unless he has the players, however when the talent is fairly equally distributed, the ability to make adjustments is tantamount.

Rick Carlisle is a good NBA coached, seemingly well-liked and has never won a thing. Greg Popovich is abrasive, a smart-aleck at times and has won four NBA championships.

While this might not be Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley in the 2006 NBA Finals in terms of mismatches it certainly in the neighborhood. More like Ted Danson as Sam Malone (great in Cheers) against his John “Becker” character (good, not great).

Carlisle and his staff deserve props for making adjustments and better utilizing the talent owner Mark Cuban traded for. Brendan Haywood was inserted into the starting lineup Tuesday evening and the offense frequently went thru him and having played with Caron Butler in Washington, the two clicked as Butler scored a career playoff-high of 35 points in 103-81 blowout.

“That was fun,” Mavs star Dirk Nowitzki said and his team is 26-16-1 ATS in road games this season.

Coach Popovich was displeased with what he saw from his squad and said so, “Mostly it was the case of they came with the mental and physical toughness, and our starting group wasn’t very good in either category”

San Antonio is 16-5 ATS at home after a loss by 20 points and Popovich must first get his team back in the proper frame of mind and do a better job in going from the defensive to offensive end, moving the ball up the floor quicker before the bigger Dallas team can be more physical and stunt their flow.

The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites with total of 191 at BetUS.com and they are on 9-2-1 ATS rollout and are 22-9 UNDER after four or more consecutive Under’s, which has been the case lately in this series. Dallas will attempt to counter being 4-0-1 ATS after double digit victory and the Mavs are 17-5 UNDER in road games having lost two of their last three.

Maybe the Spurs just had better players, but since Tim Duncan arrived in San Antonio, he and Popovich are 5-0 in seven-game series after building 3-1 lead. This isn’t Carlisle fault, but Dallas has never rallied down 3-1 in a series.

It’s about wins not point differential

Fifty years ago this fall, the New York Yankees outscored the Pittsburgh Pirates by 28 runs in the World Series and lost in seven games. Portland coach Nate McMillian might be wise to remind his team that history can be repeated, just on the hardwood instead of grass.

The Trailblazers has been blitzed three times by 29, 19 and 19 points, the latter two could have been much worse. Their triumphs have been by five and nine points respectively. “This series is crazy," Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge said. "We win; they win by 30."

Portland will try to force a seventh game playing at the Rose Garden and they are 13-3 ATS having lost three of their last four contests. "We'll be fine," point guard Andre Miller said after Monday's spanking. "We just have to think about one game. It's time to go home and take care of business."

The Phoenix demolition was capped by its reserves, which outscored the Blazers bench 55-23, led by Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. The duo had been mostly ineffective in this series, but they tallied 39 points between them (Frye-20, Dudley-19) in leading the onslaught.

 “When they get going like that, we’re a really good team,” the Suns’ Steve Nash said. “I think it’s great for their confidence because we have a lot of confidence in them.” Phoenix raised their record to 28-13 ATS against defensive teams that allow 46 percent or higher shooting percentage.

The Suns are catching one point and are 7-3-1 ATS as Pick or road underdog since Jan. 31. This 3 vs. 6 matchup has seen the number fall below the total three times in a row and Portland is 8-0 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s this year.

With the total at 201.5, Phoenix is 8-2-1 UNDER after a 10 or more point conquest and the Trailblazers are 7-0-1 UNDER after losing by double digits.

TNT has both battles with the first game at 8:00 Eastern.

Profiting from base hits
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

While going thru Bill James 2010 “Gold Mine” book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.

Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.

The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.

Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.

The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.

Pulled out all 30 teams’ home games (no reason to road contests since it’s the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.

The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.

In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.

In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored.

In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on “Gold Mine’s” findings, no reason to believe they shouldn’t.

Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let’s start with taking swings at the dish.

Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.

Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher’s pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.

Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.

No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.

Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major’s and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.

Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.

It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O’s stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.

However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O’s were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.

The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.

Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.

Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.

Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team’s No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he’s on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.

Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.

There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.

To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.

One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.

The National Football League’s prime time draft was a rating success and much like Wal-Mart, obliterated the competition for sports television ratings, sending NBA commish David Stern a chilling message about what people prefer to watch this time of year.

Though the most football experts say the actual results of the draft won’t be known for a few years after everyone chosen can be evaluated thoroughly, that however is not the world we live in. It’s with a great of certainty the History Channel does score well for viewership or hits on-line with the under 30 crowd, unless it was something their parents had talked about.

With that idea in mind, here’s what teams could be impacted this upcoming year both positively and negatively.

Winners

It would have been hard for St. Louis to screw this up. Sam Bradford is their franchise signal caller and presumably they will have him start by sometime in October, if not sooner. OT Rodger Saffold will help adding depth and Bradford protection in the offensive line and WR Mardy Gilyard has good hands and an aggressive attitude. If seventh round pick George Selvie played like he did as sophomore and junior on the defensive line at South Florida, the Rams got a steal.

The first year for GM John Schneider and Pete Carroll in Seattle could hardly have gone better. OT Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas were two coveted players and they landed them both. Before the draft they maneuvered to acquire Charley Whitehurst as quarterback, that is still a wait and see development, but is a better choice over aging Matt Hasselbeck. If WR Golden Tate becomes more disciplined route runner, he will catch anything near him and be home run threat. CB Walter Thurmond might be theft in the fourth round if he stays healthy. The additions of LenDale White and Leon Washington will add far greater versatility to offensive backfield with minimal damage to future drafts.

This is not a misprint, seemingly in spite of themselves the Oakland Raiders not only didn’t screw up their picks, and they might actually benefit from them. Al Davis finally took a real football player in the first round in MLB Rolando McClain. Though most had him going a bit later in the first round, he adds size and instincts in the heart of the defense behind Richard Seymour. The Raiders evidently even had a plan, trading former MLB Kirk Morrison to Jacksonville for speedy (4.28) Clemson WR Jacoby Ford. Bruce Campbell was “combine king” in Indianapolis and has potential to be special in the offensive line and they didn’t take him with first pick to boot. Not sure if Jason Campbell will ever amount to more than what he already is, but JaMarcus Russell’s football future is now up to him. Don’t be surprised it Oakland demands the former top pick takes a MONSTER pay cut and if he refuses, he’d be lucky to get a month of free meals at Applebee’s for a contract as free agent, let alone cash for the money he’s stolen.

Honorable mention – Miami, San Francisco, N.Y. Jets and Baltimore

Losers

What was Jacksonville thinking or were they? The Jaguars selected California’s Tyson Alualu with the 10^th overall pick and not one accredited draft expert had him higher than 25^th, meaning if Jacksonville was uncertain about what to do, they could have traded down, picked up another selection and still gotten Alualu. Larry Hart, Austen Lee and D’Anthony Smith are all potential defensive disrupters, but their impact would appear to be minimal this upcoming year.

Minnesota has defensive backfield needs and didn’t address them in the most positive way, settling for CB Chris Cook from Virginia, who ran a slowish-time at the combine. USC pass rusher Everson Griffin slipped to the fourth round, so either the Vikings got exceptional value for this player with first round ability or he is underachiever and won’t amount to much. It didn’t matter who drafted Toby Gearhart, questions on both sides were going to be raised. It just happened Minnesota choose him and the world will find out soon enough if he is a quality football player or if the numbers on speed and upright running style means limited career.

Hard to call Tennessee a loser in this spot, because their top picks are in many ways coach Jeff Fisher-type players. Nevertheless, each coming out of college has athletic limitations, without having the proverbial “upside”.  Derrick Morgan is high effort player, but not gifted athlete. WR Damian Williams has trouble eluding jams off the line of scrimmage and will try and be difference-maker as punt returner. LB Rennie Curran tackles everything he sees, the issue is what he sees at 5’10. Safety Myron Rolle IS the smartest player in the draft (Rhodes Scholar at Oxford), but coaches at this level wonder about a player that wants to be a surgeon, unless he is cutting up opposing wide receivers.

Dishonorable mention – Chicago, San Diego and Cleveland

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

 A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

In order to make the playoffs out West you had to win 50 games, something only four teams from the other conference could to. A number of NBA followers believe the Los Angeles Lakers are quite vulnerable in spite of +175 odds of being repeat champions and several teams played much better basketball to conclude the season, leaving the door ajar to speculation. Someone is still going to have knockoff Kobe and company four times to prove the Lakers are not worthy and outside of Lake-show fans, the detractors feel more than one squad is capable. All lines courtesy of BetUS.com.

(1)     L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City

You would have thought the Clippers were getting the No. 1 seed in the West with all the negative talk about the Lakers. Los Angeles has been getting much the same reception as Whitney Houston’s concert stops, nobody’s impressed. Andrew Bynum is not healthy; Kobe Bryant is showing the affects of compounding injuries and his shooting has been off. Derek Fisher can still make big shots, but is having trouble guarding his own shadow and the trio of Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Pau Gasol are noted “thinkers”, not always bringing A-game when needed and wanted. The Lakers have been uninspired for over a month and are 6-10 ATS and have covered back-to-back spreads once since Feb. 11.

Oklahoma City is everything the Lakers are not, young, eager and lacking playoff experience. Phil Jackson lobbed the first salvo, wondering how the NBA’s youngest scoring champ Kevin Durant gets to the line so frequently, insinuating preferential treatment from the zebras. (This from the same coach whose had Bryant and Michael Jordan during his career, I digress) But Durant took the bait and replied, professionally, yet made it more an issue by commenting. The Thunder are not all about Durant, as Russell Westbrook is among the top six point guards in the league and Thabo Sefolosha is undervalued within coach Scott Brooks schemes.

OKC did lose four of last six to draw the defending champs, however they won 50 games (48-34 ATS) and showed uncommon poise with 23-18 and 26-15 ATS road record. The Lakers won three of four, but in only meeting in 2010, the Thunder struck with 16-point shellacking at home over L.A. If the Lakers continue to play with indifference, this series will have some length to it and Ford Center faithful will be loud and proud for first taste postseason action.

Pick- L.A. Lakers (-800) in six over Oklahoma City (+500)

(2)     Dallas vs (7) San Antonio

This marks the fifth time the Mavericks and Spurs will square off in a Texas tussle in the playoffs with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki on opposite benches. Without Bruce Bowen, the animosity has subsided in the last couple of years between these division rivals, but that could heat up again in this series, considering what is at stake.

Dallas had the perfect opportunity to already be a NBA champion in 2006, but gagged a 2-0 lead in the finals against Miami, losing the next four contests. Since that time, owner Mark Cuban has been patient until this season, believing the pieces were in place for title run. This year he jettisoned players he felt were no longer committed to being champions like Josh Howard and retooled roster with the likes of Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood, giving them size and more scoring versatility. Here is what is troubling about the Mavs. Despite winning 55 games and being the second seed, their score differential is only +2.7, the lowest of the Western teams in the playoffs. Dallas is sixth (among West playoff teams) in home court record at 28-13 and they were 30^th against the spread at home with 10-29-2 ATS mark.

San Antonio on the other hand manufactured (in the truest since) a 50-win campaign. This is no longer Tim Duncan’s team, his aching knees and aging body are ineffective in back to back games and his post-moves are noticeably slower, not getting off shots like he used to and drawing fouls. That puts the ball in Tony Parker’s hands, but he too has been on the shelf, which led to Manu Ginobili drinking from the fountain of youth and being the leading performer in the second half. The “Spurs way” is next man up and George Hill has been invaluable at guard. In a slower series, this could mean rookie DeJuan Blair could have a bigger impact for San Antonio squad that was 6.3 points better defensively after the All-Star break.

If ever a series had seven games written all over it, this is the one. Let’s go with the upset picking San Antonio, with road team winning four times outright in this physical tight series that marks the end of Mavericks as we know them.

Pick- San Antonio (+135) in seven over Dallas (-165)

(3)     Phoenix vs. (6) Portland

For the NBA bettor who prefers to play a streak, Phoenix is the perfect team to match the group Power Station’s 1985 hit “Some Like it Hot”. The Suns closed the season 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) and the two defeats were a five point loss at equally hungry Oklahoma City and failing to ignite at Milwaukee on the last night of four road games in five nights. Their last six wins have been pulverizing, winning by 13.8 points a game. Phoenix tried to move Amare Stoudemire before the All-Star game, but couldn’t find the right compensation. This ended up being the reason the Suns had the best record in the NBA at 23-6 (20-8-1) after the break. Stoudemire was the second half MVP and he and Nash resembled Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll whenever they needed points. Phoenix still runs high-octane offense (110.2 PPG) but plays enough defense (11^th in field goal percentage) and has solid core of frontcourt role players who do their job expertly.

It’s unfortunate, a visit this past week to Dictionary.com to look up the word “snake-bit” revealed a picture, that of the Portland Trailblazers. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and now Brandon Roy are all lost due to injury. Portland’s one chance is to control the action in the frontcourt and lane area with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they can maintain a steady flow of points near the bucket, that creates space for Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum among others. The Trailblazers do have depth and were 25-14-2 ATS on the road.

With Roy, this could have been one of the most entertaining first round matchups as Portland had taken four out five, however with the way Phoenix is playing and the Blazers without their best player, chances of upset are greatly diminished. One should not expect Portland to roll over like a dog, they can run with the Suns in short stretches and will look to frustrate Nash with ball pressure and control tempo.

Pick- Phoenix (-600) in six over Portland (+400)

(4)     Denver vs (5) Utah

It took 82 games to determine who would be the Northwest Division titlist, with Denver backing in on the last day, as Utah lost at home to the Suns. It will take no more than seven games to figure who has the best team and which is good enough to advance to West semis in this rare postseason confrontation. (Last meeting was 16 years ago)

The Nuggets have been meandering without George Karl on the bench, 6-7 (3-9-1 ATS) in last 13 contests. Denver was third in the NBA in scoring at 106.5 points per game, yet has been held to under 100 points in 11 of previous 15 outings. The Nuggets front office came out at the conclusion of the season and complimented interim coach Adrian Dantley for his fine work, but Denver looks soul-less without Karl calling the shots. Denver is 13-3 ATS the last two years in the playoffs and they continue that streak if Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups exhibit leadership and the bench outplays Utah’s.

The Jazz have two components that will seal their fate either way. Andrei Kirilenko missed final nine regular season games with a calf injury and he is the only Utah player on the roster capable of making life difficult for Carmelo. Carlos Boozer’s fascinating array of moves and shots is predicated on health and his ribs are sore, which could cut his effectiveness. That leaves Deron Williams to carry even a greater amount of the load. He has an outstanding command of the Jerry Sloan’s motion offense and the ball distribution means Williams has to set the offense, not be the main scoring threat.

Utah is 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) in Salt Lake City and 23-17-1 ATS on the road, but falling from potential No. 2 seed to No. 5, losing home court advantage will prove to be too much for unhealthy club that is 1-5 and 1-4-1 ATS in Denver.

Pick- Denver (-200) in seven over Utah (+160)

NBA Playoff Betting Preview – Eastern Conference
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The East looks to be about as exciting as another episode rerun of Law and Order. Everyone is expecting the chalk to play thru to Cleveland and Orlando rematch, with oddsmakers seeing the Cavaliers and Magic switching places. One fun aspect is how angry most of the Eastern Conference teams are. Cleveland’s mad because they feel they should have already won a title. Orlando’s peeved because most experts don’t believe they are good enough to win championship. Atlanta is fuming because of lack of respect and Boston is raging because they believe they are better than they’ve played. Milwaukee’s unhappy about losing Andrew Bogut and Miami’s piqued about talk of one man team. The Bulls are essentially “no comment” on head coach and VP being involved in heated confrontation and Charlotte’s coach Larry Brown is just mad about being Larry Brown. All lines courtesy of Betonline.com.

(1)     Cleveland vs (8) Chicago

At present, there is no denying the Cleveland Cavaliers their due. Cleveland had the best record in the NBA at 61-21, which included tossing away the final four games of the regular season, resting the league’s best player LeBron James. If you discard the non-efforts in April against the other elite teams in the NBA, the Cavaliers were 9-2 and 8-3 ATS against all other clubs seeded one-thru-three. Without question, this is the deepest most complete squad James has had since taking up residence in Cleveland area. The Cavs are fourth in field goal percentage defense and third in field goals made and yes they still will bog down on offense occasionally, but have additional weapons like Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson to compliment other aspects. The Cavaliers are +160 favorites to win it all and should.

Chicago received a dubious prize for making the NBA Playoffs on the last day of the season,  but you can’t compete and learn how to get better unless you make it this far and truly determine where you need to improve. The Bulls are really young and can play like a bunch of kids on the playground with the public doubting they can even win a game. Point guard Derrick Rose seems to work well with Kirk Hinrich and as long as the former Kansas product is making jump shots, the duo can give the Cavs problems in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, Chicago has to match physicality, but don’t overdo it, since the Cavaliers have more options. Luol Deng has to be big in this series. Da Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making six or more three-point shot a contest in the second half of the season.

Though Cleveland gave away much of April, the last thing they want is extended series, nonetheless, you can bet coach Mike Anderson would prefer four challenging tilts to toughen up his team, with Cavs the winner each time. Anderson’s group is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds a game on the season.

Pick- Cleveland (-2800) in four over Chicago (+1600)

(2)     Orlando vs (7) Charlotte

The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?

Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.

This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.

Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)

(3)     Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee

Do you get the feeling the Hawks are turning into the Atlanta Braves of the 1980’s? The Braves had great players like Dale Murphy and Bob Horner but never really accomplished a great deal, not being able to fill the rest of the holes. The Hawks are two years removed from almost upsetting Boston, who would go on to win NBA title. They won 53 games (the most in 12 years) this season yet ask any NBA insider or interested sports bettor if Atlanta is an elite club and a pause will come before a hesitant answer. The Hawks function best on offense when they are like the hamburger chain In-N-Out, dumping the ball into Al Horford and Josh Smith (both with limited offensive maneuvers) and kicking it out to shooters like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Expert the Hawks to want to fly up and down the court, ranked fourth in fast-break points at 16.2 per contest and they begin the series 30-13 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

It’s really a shame Milwaukee lost center Andrew Bogut, though he’s never been a factor against Atlanta, as a very strong case could be made he was the second best center in the Eastern Conference this season until unlucky fall. Though the injury limits aspects of what the Bucks can do, no reason for Milwaukee fans to be crying in their beer. John Salmons was the best pickup any team made before the trade deadline, bringing a scorer’s mentality and ability to get to basket; shooting over five three throws a game. Carlos Delfino and Jerry Stackhouse are excellent shooters when feet are gathered and Luke Ridnour adds a calming effect with his presence. Look for Milwaukee to play plenty of small-ball attempting to get open shots for quicker players or draw fouls for dead ball points.

At the All-Star break Milwaukee was 24-27, going nowhere, but caught fire finishing 22-9 (20-8-3 ATS) and were the only NBA teams with over fifty (51) spread wins this season. Head man Scott Skiles is the classic underdog coach, since that’s what he was as player and if Atlanta comes in over-confident against shortened Bucks bunch, this becomes arresting series.

Pick- Atlanta (-900) in six over Milwaukee (+550)

(4)     Boston vs. (5) Miami

How the true sports bettor wins is giving up on preconceived notions when the obvious is presented and not just grabbing the latest fad when it comes around. The Boston Celtics have won exactly half of their last 54 games (18-34-2 ATS), after starting 23-5. By now everyone has heard all the excuses as to why, but the facts are this is an average, aging basketball team led by players that can no longer deliver consistently, with a coach whose rah-rah style is no longer as appealing. In sticking with facts, the Celtics are 24-17 at home (12-28-1 ATS) which is five defeats more than the previous two regular seasons combined. Boston has lost seven contests since Feb. 25 by 10 or more points and 10 total overall, which is precisely one more whipping they received in the prior two campaigns totaled together. This club would seem to have more in common with Mary J. Blige than Rhinna.

While Boston has been a loser in seven of last 10 contests, Miami has been hotter the Beyonce, being winners in 12 of last lucky 13 (8-4-1 ATS). The Heat-wave has been a two-pronged factor, a manageable schedule and great defense. Though a few groans have emitted from the Miami locker room about playing at faster pace, coach Erik Spoelstra looks down the bench and doesn’t see production in terms of minutes and points, thus has decided to limit possessions and hope Dwayne Wade can find a way to win. The defense has been suffocating, holding opposing clubs to 88.7 points in this stretch compared to 94.2 on the year.

Miami will be a trendy pick, a hot team facing a cold (you can’t spell cold without o l d) one. Heat backers will dismiss 0-3 record this season against Boston, since they lost by only five, six and seven points. Wade has been like his team’s nickname, heating the C’s for almost 34 points a game and over eight assists. However, Doc Rivers has implemented a plan, let Wade get his and not let anyone else beat us, which is the reason for no other Miami player scoring 20 points vs. Boston this season.

Pick- Boston (-200) in six over Miami (+165)

After finishing 4-2 on their first homestand of the season, Detroit returns to the road for their longest trip of the year, playing 11 games in 11 days against three teams from the American League West starting in Seattle. The Tigers (6-3, +1.3 units) have been the comeback kids thus far with five of their wins coming after trailing.

Another comeback story is pitcher Jeremy Bonderman. The right-hander gave up one hit and one run while striking out five in five innings in a 4-2 win over Cleveland last Saturday. That was Bonderman’s first victory in nearly two years, bouncing back from surgery that broke up a blood clot in his throwing shoulder.

“It was fun to just get back on the mound, compete and be who I am and not worry about my arm hurting,” Bonderman said. “It’s been a long journey back, but I’m hoping I got 35 more starts in and hopefully we can do something special.”

The 27-year old is making the change from a hard-thrower to pitcher. “That was really Jeremy Bonderman the pitcher," Leyland said of his first start in 2010, "not Jeremy Bonderman the 95-96-mph fastball, hard slider. He pitched, and that's the adjustment that he's going to have to make. We're tickled to death today. That's progress, and that's something you have to build on."

His mound opponent for first game is 100 percent healthy and one of the best pitchers in baseball, Felix Hernandez. Seattle’s ace right-hander starts the season with 3.29 ERA, but no-decisions, providing two quality starts on the road, both Mariners wins. This makes it Hernandez first time to take the mound at Safeco Field and he and Mariners’ teammates are 27-9 the last two years he’s been the starter.

Sportbet.com has Seattle as -182 money line favorites in the first contest of the series with total Ov7. King Felix is 27-8 when the total is 7 to 8.5 (Mariners Record) and 10-1 OVER as a home favorite of -175 to -200. Detroit is 3-9 in Game 1 of a series dating back to last season and is 7-1 in Bonderman’s previous eight road starts.

Game 1 Edge: Seattle

Seattle (4-6, -2 units) has begun the season very slow with the bats, averaging 2.8 runs per game, with sordid team batting average of .231. They have shown a few signs of starting to work their way out of it with nine or more hits in four of last five games. The Mariners are the only team in baseball that has yet to score more than five runs in single game and they might still be searching facing the Tigers ace Jason Verlander.

The 6’5 right-hander has dialed up the fastball into the upper-90’s, however has ERA of 9.00 because he’s lacked command of secondary pitches to retire hitters thus far. He’s making mistakes that are getting hit or batters are sitting dead-red in their second or third time at bat, not fearing Verlander can throw anything else over the plate. With Seattle still searching at the dish, Detroit’s top pitcher could go to 44-18 (Tigers Record) against losing teams.

Seattle counters with Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Aussie has a sound delivery with a tailing fastball, a big overhand curveball that he likes to use early in counts to go along with first-rate changeup. Rowland-Smith is known for throwing strikes, but is not a strike-out pitcher. If the lefty is taking his turn in the rotation in Game 2, Seattle has four-game winning streak.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

The series finale is a wild card contest, at least as far as the pitching is concerned. The Tigers go with Max Scherzer, who throws 95 MPH fastball and has devastating sweeping slider when he’s on. Has tendency to get lazy with mechanics, which adds up pitch count unnecessarily or has one faulty inning that costs him. One aspect in his favor is Detroit is 36-18 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game coming into the series.

Ian Snell is making his third start of the year and comes in with ERA of 5. Snell would be described as a “slinger” with his three-quarters delivery style and follow thru.  His fastball runs and sinks and he possesses a hard slider, but isn’t known as great listener and too easily loses command of the strike zone. Though a very good athlete, at 5’11 lacks the leverage to get extra tilt on his pitches when he tires. Snell is 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in two career starts against the Tigers and Seattle begins the series having won 19 of last 26 at home.

Game 3 Edge: Detroit

The first two games have starting pitchers from each team that can dominate, which sets up a split. The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 is a push, however the Tigers bullpen and offense has been better thus far, making them the series play in the second weekend of baseball action.

Sportbet.com series odds:  Detroit +140, Seattle -180

Doug’s Pick: Detroit

Michigan State vs. Butler Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren’t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and “beat down” of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points.  Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo’s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest.  Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he’s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the “Butler Way”

Cinderella doesn’t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

“They’re the best late-game defensive team I’ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They’re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.”

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA’s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo’s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He’s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don’t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, “If you beat us, it won’t be because you rattled us.”

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run “pick and rolls” or “pick and pops” in isolation sequences.

This is close

Betonline.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.

Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their “onions” giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament.  They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip.

The chalk followed suit in the West Regional with top seeds Syracuse and Kansas State both victorious. Each are a solid betting choice to meet in an Elite 8 matchup on Saturday, yet both will encounter clubs that are NCAA tournament tested and carrying a strong belief this is their chance to shine in what has been unpredictable tournament in 2010.

Syracuse vs Butler

The status of Arinze Onuaku is presently listed as doubtful, which doesn’t help the Orangemen (30-4, 21-9 ATS) as they look to move on in the tournament. Onuaku is a contributing scorer near the basket and though a mediocre free throw shooter, he still draws fouls against the opposing team and is exceptional rebounder in their 2-3 zone. His ability to control the glass has set up Syracuse to push the ball offensively, often finding the right player in motion towards the basket with a sharp, on-target pass they led to easier baskets for Orange shooters.  Syracuse is 13-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

That leaves more of the burden to fall on Wesley Johnson and Rick Jackson specifically. Johnson has to rebound a little more and can’t cheat out quite as much on misfires from the opposition. Jackson in turn has to be the Windex-man (long-time Dick Vitale favorite saying) and has to work a little harder on the offensive glass for put-backs. Off their high-octane effort against Gonzaga (87-65), Syracuse is 8-1 ATS in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Butler (30-4, 12-20 ATS) is a six-point underdog, with total of 138.5 at Betonline.com. The Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger; a 22-game win streak will do that for team. In spite of their phenomenal success, Butler was often mentioned as a play against team in both the first two games in the tournament and they played unafraid even the face of real adversity. F-C Matt Howard sat a good portion of the second half with four fouls against Murray State, yet the Bulldogs actually built a lead during that time, spreading the floor offensively and getting points from a variety of scorers including versatile Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.

Butler is ordinary three-point team (34.1 percent), nonetheless has players capable of tickling the twine and is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

Xavier vs. Kansas State

The Wildcats from Manhattan are looking better all the time. Kansas State (28-7, 21-9 ATS) was considered a darkhorse for a top seed until losing twice in final week of the regular season. However, obstacles might be falling to the wayside for the Wildcats to be considered a real championship club. Their nemesis Kansas is flushed; Syracuse and West Virginia have either ailing starters or have lost them all together. The Cinderella’s are presumed to strike midnight before long, leaving only a few worthy contenders.

Stellar guard play is a must to survive and advance in March and coach Frank Martin just might have the most dynamic duo since Batman and Robin. Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente are both capable of boiling over and scoring points at per minute clip. In the painted area, Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels can both produce big nights, particularly if they're converting offensive rebounds into stick-backs. K-State is a four-point favorite and is 18-6 ATS this season when bestowed with the honor.

Xavier’s is nobody’s fool, being only just one of two teams to make it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last three seasons along with Michigan State. Forget the talk of the Musketeers not being elite program. "I don't feel like we're a mid-major at all," said senior Jason Love, having been a part of this ride. "You look at our schedule and we play some of the best teams in the country."

Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) is 8-1 ATS in a NCAA tournament games over the last three seasons and holds opposing teams to 40.7 percent shooting, yet are explosive enough to average almost 80 (79.3) points a contest. Sophomore guard Jordan Crawford led the A-10 in scoring with 19.6 points a game and has a complete package, being able find open teammates, defend effectively, and deliver big baskets when his team needs them throughout a game. Xavier is 14-3 ATS having won two of their last three games this campaign.

Two seeds are 18-5 SU taking on six seeds, with average winning margin 5.6 PPG.

Are Washington and Cornell desirable dogs?
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The East Regional is a marriage of four unlikely teams.  Here we find something new (Cornell), something old (Bob Huggins having team in the tournament), something borrowed (Washington playing like they are a top Sweet 16 program or better after underachieving a good portion of the season) and something blue (lots of Kentucky blue). These four converge in upstate New York not willing to be a bridesmaid and the underdogs earning a lot of love.

These Huskies are no dogs

For Washington (26-9, 16-18 ATS) fans, their lost weekend in Los Angeles (losing to both UCLA and USC) is a distant memory. Those Jan. 21 and 23 contests were the last time the Huskies played bad basketball. Whatever happened to this team after losing to the Trojans by 26 points, it has worked. Washington has won 14 of 16, including nine in a row and is 11-4 ATS. Maybe it was coach Lorenzo Romar steady influence, sending the same message and getting his players to believe.

One player that never lost faith was senior Quincy Pondexter. “When I kept saying in January, 'Don't panic,' it was for a reason," Pondexter said. "We still had a lot of time to come together and make a push like we are now."

Washington is now 6-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament appearances and believes they can achieve greatness. "If we do what we're supposed to do, we got a chance to do something even more special," coach Romar said. "You never want to look too far ahead, and we don't…….I don't think anyone is satisfied yet. They like playing basketball, and they want to keep playing."

The Huskies ability to control the pace has been the key with their athletes. Strip away the slowdown tactics of Oregon State and Washington has average 81.3 points per game in the last six other contests. BetUS.com has them as four-point underdog with total of 140.5.

West Virginia (29-6, 15-19 ATS) received some sobering news, losing point guard Truck Bryant to broken foot. This was already the Mountaineers weakest position on the floor, which leaves Joe Mazzulla to soldier the load independently. Mazzulla was already playing more minutes than Bryant in recent weeks, however now he has no credible backup to support him. It will be imperative Mazzulla plays well as facilitator to Da'Sean Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks and stays under control defensively, as Washington will try to force West Virginia into track meet. The ‘Teers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 NCAA games.

It would seem picking the total has a direct correlation to spread outcome. Washington is 12-3 OVER having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, winning by 6.4 points per game. West Virginia is 12-4 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons, being victorious by 7.8 PPG. No.2 seeds are 7-1 SU against 11’s, winning by 6.4 points a contest.

Big Red vs. Big Blue
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

Kentucky (34-2, 19-15 ATS) is now the odds on favorite to win the whole shebang and is an 8.5-point favorite over Cornell (29-4, 18-10). The Big Red cannot be underestimated, at least to cover the spread. Cornell’s strength is in their ability to play their game. In two tournament trips, they have shot 43.6 percent from three-point land, which is right on target with season average and NCAA best figure of 43.9.

Kentucky is powerful in the paint and will likely be able to slowdown Cornell’s 7’0 center Jeff Foote. Nonetheless, the team most similar to Cornell, at least in terms of style is Mississippi State and the Wildcats needed overtime and fair amount of luck to down the Bulldogs twice.

Ryan Wittman, Louis Dale and Jon Jaque all can drain the long ball and their team is 8-2 ATS away from home after three or more consecutive wins this season.

Kentucky is going to have to make three-point shots, as Cornell will stay in their zone defense. The Wildcats do have definite edge is size and quickness and when pushed on the road, they have held opposing teams to 27.9 percent behind the arc. Expect coach John Calipari to use his big guys to get Foote into foul trouble, making it easier to focus on guarding the perimeter. Kentucky has covered their last five tournament appearances and No.1 seeds vs. 12’s are perfect 16-0 SU, winning by 14.6 PPG.

The question remains will this youthful ‘Cats team stay focused taking on an Ivy League squad, despite their ability? Over the years, Kentucky is 2-17 ATS after consecutive blowout wins by 20 points or more.

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Sportbet.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

 
This is in many ways one of the most unusual years in college basketball and possibly it might be a sign of future events as it moves along. Kansas was the deserved No.1 seed of the whole tournament and while West Virginia made a late push, all four top seeds have earned their position at the top of respective brackets.

This year more than ever, no whining about the teams that didn’t get in, if it weren’t for the usual upsets by teams that end up winning conference championships, it would have even harder to fill the field of 65 teams, since all the teams that didn’t make it had more than enough bad losses to offset what qualities wins they manufactured.

My eyes are blurry from watching over 150 college basketball games this season and this is whom I see in the Sweet 16, starting in the Midwest region.

In March, you need a number of factors to win six games and be crowned the kings of college basketball. At the top of the list is talent and this why coach Bill Self continues to win everywhere he goes, the man can recruit. Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1) has a terrific point guard in Sherrod Collins, size and scoring in the paint with Cole Aldrich and the Morris brothers and Xavier Henry has his sweet looking three-point shot back. Kansas wins be 18 points a game and was a nation’s best 8-1 against the RPI’s Top 25. Lehigh (22-10) won the Patriot League regular and postseason, but should not provide much opposition; however being 26-point underdog could draw wagering support.

I was surprised to see Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) as a ninth seed, as they were a Top 30 team all season and won the Missouri Valley regular season and postseason tourney. The Panthers concede just 54.3 points per game and might feel underappreciated against UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) who has to have guard Tre’Von Willis at 100 percent after suffering mildly sprained ankle in MWC semis. No. 8 seeds are just 46-54 against No.9 seeds and Northern Iowa is a 1.5-point underdog and will try and win NCAA game for the first time in 20 years.

Michigan State (24-8, 12-19 ATS) will have some early problems with athletic New Mexico State (22-11); however the Aggies are a mirage of sorts, winning by less than a point per game (+0.8) despite 22 victories and coughs up 77.8 points per game. The Spartans are 13-point favorites and need point guard Kalin Lucas to regain form prior to injury to move beyond this contest.

Rumors around Houston had coach Tom Penders on the bubble, to keep his job that is, instead the Cougars are in NCAA Tournament for first time in 18 years. Houston (19-15, 14-16 ATS) has the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman and fellow guard Kelvin Lewis can also bury shots, it will be how they defend Maryland (23-8, 16-10 ATS) that will make the difference as nine-point underdogs. Before lame effort against Georgia Tech in ACC quarterfinals, the Terps has won nine of ten (8-2 ATS). A refocused Maryland and Greivis Vasquez could score a bundle on Houston off four games in four days. How about first to 100 wins.

Ohio State (27-7, 17-16-1 ATS) might have the best five players with diverse skills in the country, led by Evan Turner. UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 17-11 ATS) was Big West champs and has conference player of the year Orlando Johnson, but can the Gauchos (nickname is a top seed for certain) handle Buckeyes ability to score in bunches? Linemakers are saying no with Ohio State a 17-point chalk.

The 7 vs.10 matchup in the Midwest is delightful study contrast in styles. Oklahoma State (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, with their sharp-shooter James Anderson and Georgia Tech (22-12, 15-12-1 ATS) plays best going inside to Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. The Yellow Jackets commit way too many turnovers, which is why they are probably 1.5-point dogs, in spite of ability to control the lane.

No.3 Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS) is one the best teams in the country when their top three players are “on” like they were in Big East tourney. Too much power and size for Hoyas, but the dynamic guard duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper for Ohio U. (21-14, 18-12 ATS) could make it interesting as 13-point underdogs if they can combine for 50 or more points.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) to upset Tennessee (23-8, 13-17 ATS)? Not sure as sixth seeds are 69-31 SU over 11^th seeds and the Aztecs are pitiful 61.7 percent from the free throw line. The Vols can play defense (39.4 percent), however San Diego State is 11-7 SU and ATS away from home.

West Regional Round One Wagering Overview
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS) was sent out West after losing last two games, which might be to their benefit. The Orangemen have had time to get healthier, which is very important for Arinze Onuaku (reports are he will miss first game). No No.1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 (100-0), but Syracuse lost to Vermont (25-9) a few seasons ago in the first round as a fourth seed. The Orangemen didn’t lose a game outside the RPI Top 50, is 10-3 ATS away and is posted 17.5-point favorite.

They will face the winner of Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS) and Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS), where something has to give. The Zags are fifth in the country in offensive field goal percentage (49.1) and the Seminoles are first in field goal percentage defense (37.4). Gonzaga’s defense is better than Florida State’s offense; nevertheless the Noles are still a 1.5-point favorite.

UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) was upset by Houston in C-USA final, however it was their third game in 36 hours and they were dead in their sneakers at the end when they lost. That won’t be the case against Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS), who has issues with athletic teams. The Bulldogs can’t run and gun with the Miners or they fall in classic 5 vs. 12 matchup, with the higher seed run of the mill 20-16 SU the last nine years. Butler is favored by 2.5-points at BetUS.com, however UTEP holds teams to 38.8 percent shooting and averages almost nine steals game. Upset brewing?

Another possible upset is fourth seeded Vanderbilt (24-8, 15-14 ATS) against Ohio Valley champion Murray State. Vandy is 3-3 SU in last six outings and the Racers shoot over 50 percent and hold opposing teams to 38.6 percent. The Commodores may win; nonetheless taking the three points with Murray State (30-4, 15-13-1 ATS) might be valuable.

The Sun Belt champs North Texas (24-8) like to play all 94 feet and could be troublesome for team looking ahead and are 17-7-1 ATS this year. Unfortunately, Kansas State (26-7, 19-9 ATS) rarely takes a night off with coach Frank Martin’s intensity and the Mean Green give up too many easy buckets in the paint. North Texas is on the receiving end of 16-points and could be above average first half wager.

BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS) hasn’t been a factor in the tournament in recent appearances (last NCAA win was 1993), but that might change against very ordinary Florida squad. The Cougars are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and what they may lack in quickness; they at least have tall timber to compete in the lane with the Gators. Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) is 1-4 in previous five and in the immortal words of former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra, the Gators “play good enough to lose”. Line makers have Cougs by 4.5 over Gainesville gang.

Oakland U. (26-8, 6-8 ATS) is 20-1 since Dec. 28; however is 0-4 against teams in the tournament, losing by 27.2 points a contest. Pittsburgh’s demeanor will determine if they cover the spread, like when the Panthers (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS) lost to Indiana and at South Florida. Pittsburgh is not always pretty, yet coach Jamie Dixon strives to squeeze the most out is talent and the Cats are 10-point faves.

Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS) and Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) is intriguing conflict. Both teams are well-coached and play solid defense. The Musketeers are better offensively at 80 points per game and forward Jason Love has to be smart and not get into foul trouble; otherwise the edge goes to the bigger Golden Gophers who can score easier in the paint if Love is on the bench. For Hoosier Jamal Crawford is now part of the X-men and looks to show the Big Ten the wrong team is favored.

East Regional Round One Wagering Overview
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

Can a team as young as Kentucky (32-2, 16-15 ATS) really win six strenuous games without cracking? If talent is best predictor, than the Wildcats certainly have a great shot with no less than three NBA players on the roster, with DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Patrick Paterson. Kentucky is a 20-point favorite over East Tennessee State (20-14) and after dispatching of them will face one of two fading teams in the second round.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) is the lowest seeded team at 8^th that was ever No.1 in the nation in a given season and Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) was heavily scrutinized, losing five of last six outings. The Demon Deacons are averaging measly 60.2 points a contest in their last five and connect on only 66 percent from the charity stripe. Texas is a 4.5-point favorite at Betonline.com and as long as they have the lead the Longhorns are fine. However since January, Texas collapses like a folding chair went faced with adversity, how will they react Thursday?

Cornell (27-4, 16-10 ATS) might be a super pick, being one of the best Ivy League teams in years and playing Kansas even for 35 minutes and Syracuse close to the same early in the season. Cornell knocks down 48.1 percent from the field, which includes 43.4 percent from beyond the arc. What holds the Big Red back as four-point underdogs is facing Temple (28-5, 22-12 ATS), who won the A-10 and does all the same things Cornell does, with bigger and quicker athletes. The Owls hold opposing teams to just 27.8 percent from three-point land.

In the battle of W’s, Wisconsin (23-8, 17-12 ATS) should whip Wofford (26-8, 16-11 -2 ATS), yet the Terriers might have enough bite to keep it close as 10-point underdogs, having been victorious in 16 of last 17 (10-5-2 ATS). This might be the lowest scoring game of the first round.

West Virginia’s (27-6, 13-19 ATS) size and strength will be way too much for MEAC champ Morgan State (27-9, 5-5 ATS) and they will await the winner of Clemson (21-10, 14-14 ATS) and Missouri (22-10, 14-12 ATS).

This will be extreme battle of wills, as both are full court pressing teams, seeking to create chaos. Neither of these Tigers’ teams is as effective away from home, as Clemson is 7-8 SU (4-11 ATS) and Missouri is 6-8 SU and both see declining points per game in road uniforms. The club that commits the fewer turnovers and scores buckets on the backend of press is the victor. Oddmakers see this one very close with Clemson a one point choice.

New Mexico (29-4, 18-13-1 ATS) enjoyed a splendid campaign and is a well-deserved three seed. The Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego State in MWC semi-finals, which will only work to help coach Steve Alford make his surprising club more humble starting a new season. New Mexico will have to be very aware of guard Anthony Johnson of Montana (22-9, 18-11), who scored 42 points in Big Sky tournament championship game. The Grizzlies are receiving nine-points in this one.

 
The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conferencechampionships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.

In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1)    Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2)    Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but by five or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.

3)    Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4)    When it doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled. 

5)    Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.

One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6)    Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7)    Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

Bracket Buster is Opportunity to Win and Learn

This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.

Friday, Feb.19

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa 7:00E ESPN2

Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.

Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however he’s been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6’9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Siena at Butler  11:00E ESPN2

Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.

It’s a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butler’s seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern 1:00E  ESPN2

If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6’7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and they’ve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

The old story of “you don’t learn anything by losing” doesn’t apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.

New Mexico State at Pacific 10:00E ESPNU

It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.

This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.

The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.

Villanova at Georgetown 12:00E ESPN

While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.

It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet. Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.

Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.

Xavier at Dayton 12:00E ESPN2

The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.

The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.

Wake Forest at Virginia 12:00E ESPN Full Court

Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 38-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.

Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.

Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.

Wisconsin at Michigan   4:00E CBS

Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.

Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.

The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.

BYU at UNLV   4:00E VERSUS

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.

UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.

Michigan State at Illinois  9:00E ESPN

Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 6-13-1 ATS this season.

The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.

Tulsa at UTEP 10:00E  ESPN2

Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.

The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.

Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.

Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

And now there are eight, teams that is, still vying for the NFL championship. Hopefully, the four Wildcard Round games treated you well. Either way, what happened last weekend is in the past; it’s time now to look ahead to the Divisional Round. Four more games are on tap, two on Saturday, and two on Sunday, with side, total, and other wagering opportunities beaconing. With that said, like last week, I am here to take a closer look at the recent betting history of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Let’s get to it.

One of the things you need to consider before beginning your Divisional Round playoff handicapping is that the results of recent years have been downright alarming, absolutely dominated by road teams, not only at the betting window, but actually in who wins and moves on as well. In fact, the last 14 Divisional Round games have seen visiting clubs go 9-5 SU & 12-2 ATS. Pittsburgh (over San Diego) last January, and Green Bay (over Seattle) in ’07 are the only exceptions of home teams that have both won and covered their games. To consider how big of a change this is, from ’95 to ’01, home teams in the Divisional Round owned a record of 22-6 SU & 17-10-1 ATS. It seems that earning that first round bye in the postseason and being able to host this second round game has not proven advantageous at all. Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota will look to change that this weekend.

With such distinctive trends to begin with, it’s a good bet that we can come up with even better information simply by digging deeper. Let’s do just that, by looking at the lines, totals, scores, matchups, and stats that should be a part of your normal handicapping routine anyway.

General Divisional Trends
I’ve already touched on the fact that road teams have covered 12 of the last 14 Divisional Round games in the NFL playoffs. If you go back much further, to ’93, you’d see that road teams own only a slight 34-32-2 ATS edge though. That means that recent developments have differed from the norm. Does it go back this season? That remains to be seen. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might find useful for the weekend:

·  Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings after applying 3.5-points for home field advantage were 4-0 ATS in the ’09 Divisional Round.

·  The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to Divisional performance, as Saturday home teams are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS since ’05 while Sunday hosts have gone just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS.

·  In general, the Divisional Round has been a low scoring round, with the UNDER on the total going 11-6-1 in the last 18, producing 42.0 PPG on totals averaging 43.6.

·  In the recent 14 game stretch of dominance by road teams in the Divisional Round, the nine road outright wins have been accompanied by seven UNDER’s on the total, while the five home team wins have gone OVER the total at a 4-0-1 rate. In other words, correlated parlays should read ROAD-UNDER or HOME-OVER.

·  There have only been 11 inter-divisional games in this round over the last 17 years, with home teams owning a 7-4 SU & 5-5-1 ATS record in that span. These have been lower scoring games, with seven of the 11 going UNDER the total.

Trends by Seed Number
There have been some interesting performance observations when you consider the seed number of the team playing in a Divisional Round game. Take a look:

·  The performance of the #1 seeds has been particularly troubling of late, as they have lost seven straight games ATS and are just 2-5 SU in that span. They are just 2-10 ATS dating back to ’04, after having gone 14-4 SU & ATS in the prior 18. The #2 seeds have been more reliable, going 2-2 ATS in the last two seasons, and 5-5 ATS since ’04.

·  The #3 seeds are on a 6-2 ATS & 6-2 OVER run in ’03. #4 seeds are 6-2 UNDER in that same span and 4-4 ATS in their last eight Divisional Round games, but 3-1 ATS vs. the #1 in that span.

·  Dating back to ’96, #5 seeds that have reached the Divisional Round have been exceptional bets, going 7-2 ATS (4-5 SU).

·  Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Divisional Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.

·  There has been a distinct difference in total results dependent upon the seed number of the host recently. In the last seven seasons, #1 seeds are 11-2-1 UNDER the total, while #2 seeds have gone 9-5 OVER the total.

Line Range Trends
Lines in the Divisional Round have been chalk-heavy, with the average favorite laying 7.1 points since ’93. Furthermore, 35 of the 68 games have had a line of a TD or more and only once has there been a home underdog in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:

·  Sizeable home favorites have not been a solid bet in the Divisional Round of late, as those laying a TD or more (7 pts) are just 6-5 SU & 3-8 ATS (27%) since ’04, including three straight outright losses.

·  There have been four double-digit favorites in the last four years of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Those teams are an ugly 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.

·  In Divisional Round games where the final pointspread closed at 5-points or less, the road team has been nearly automatic, going 8-7 SU & 11-3-1 ATS (79%) since ‘98. The UNDER is also 11-4 in those games.

·  Bettors haven’t had nearly the success dealing with the opening lines in Divisional Playoff games as they did in the Wildcard Round. In fact, when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since ’93 in the Divisional Round, this “smart money” just 24-29 ATS (45%). What’s more, in 40 of the 54 games, bettors sided with the host team.

·  The line movement numbers get downright ugly for bettors when you only consider recent years. Over the last six playoff years, line moves have only shown a 5-15 ATS (25%) record. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move.

·  Interestingly, in the Divisional Round playoff games since ’05, seven games have seen the opening line move by 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In those games, bettors have been wrong on the line move EVERY TIME (0-7 ATS).

Total Range Trends
As mentioned before, the majority of Divisional games have gone UNDER the total in recent years. Let’s see what else we can uncover regarding totals:

·  Similarly to the Wildcard Round, extreme totals in Divisional Playoff games have produced mostly OVER games, while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower scoring games. Dating back to ’99, in games with totals posted at either less than 38 or more than 48, OVER the total is 14-6-1 (70%). In games inside that range, the UNDER has been the way to go, 16-6 (73%).

·  The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in the Divisional Round, as since ’93, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 14-8 (64%). When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 22-16 (58%). Combined, following the total move has netted a 60% chance of winning.

·  The success of following the money on a total bet drops dramatically if the total move was 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since ’93, this “smart money” has gone 11-11 (50%).

Scoring Trends
Like the Wildcard Round, there are certain point thresholds that teams reach in the Divisional Round that greatly influence their chances of winning or losing.

·  Home teams that fail to reach 20 points have a little better chance of winning in the Divisional Round than in the Wildcard Round according to recent history, having gone just 4-13 SU as compared to 1-13 SU since ’93. However, those teams have not covered a pointspread in that time, going 0-16-1 ATS.

·  Those home teams that do reach and/or exceed the 20-point mark have gone 44-7 SU & 32-18-1 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, five of these outright losses have come since ’04, and the record in those games is just 12-5 SU & 7-10 ATS, as road team scoring has picked up.

·  The frequency of road teams winning in the Divisional Round when they fail to reach 20 points has been one in eight games (5-35 SU & 13-25-2 ATS) over the last 17 years. If you recall the Wildcard Round stat on this, these same teams were just 1-31 SU & 1-30-1 ATS since ’93.

·  Road teams that do make it to 20 points or higher are only 15-13 SU but 21-7 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. Recently though, or over the last nine years, they are 11-6 SU & 15-2 ATS, making this strategy one to consider as you analyze this weekend’s scoring potential.

Trends based upon Won-Lost Records
Strangely, there have 26 of 68 games in the last 17 years of the Divisional Playoffs that have matched teams with the same number of wins or the road team actually having won more games. Such situations have proven very good indicators that the road team was going to cover the pointspread, as they are 15-10-1 ATS. Since ’04, they are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. Here are a couple of other trends concerning won-lost marks and the Divisional Round:

·  All four of this year’s home teams in the Divisional Round have won 12 games or more in the regular season. From 1995-2003, such divisional hosts were 20-6 SU & 18-7-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Since however, they are just 11-10 SU & 6-15 ATS, including 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS against a road team with 12 or more wins (incl. Wildcard win).

·  This is typically the end of the line for road teams that won nine or fewer games in the regular season, as they are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS in the Divisional Round since 93.

·  Road teams that won 11 or more games in the regular season then added a victory in the Wildcard Round have proven very dangerous over the last six years in the Divisional Round. In that time span, such road teams are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS. The only host to both win and cover against such a club was the 2004-05 Patriots, who beat Indy 20-3.

·  Trends based upon Statistical Traits
Going into Divisional playoff games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous week’s Wildcard games.

·  Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 39-27-2 ATS (59%) in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, since ’02, the effectiveness of this particular stat has waned, with a record of just 16-15-1 ATS (52%).

·  Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 25-25-2 (50%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96. Again though, over the last eight seasons, the team with the edge in this category has dropped to 14-17-1 (45%).

·  The ability to run the football has proven more important in Divisional games than in the Wildcard Round of late, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Yards Per Rush are 35-31-1 ATS (53%). Over the last eight playoff seasons, that record climbs to 20-11-1 ATS (65%). Be sure to consider YPR this weekend.

·  Teams that have demonstrated a greater ability to produce big plays through the air, or those averaging more Pass Yards per Attempt, are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, the most definitive statistical edge we have uncovered in the playoffs thus far. However, the last five years have seen a dramatic decline to 6-14 ATS (30%) so be careful when applying PYA.

·  Yards per Play used to be an effective predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat had gone 36-20-2 ATS (64%) prior to mid ‘07. Like the PYA stat though, recent results have turned dramatically, with only one of the last 10 Divisional Round teams with an edge in YPP having won & covered their game.

·  Yards per Point also went through a stretch of great success as a predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) overall since ’93. Like our other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late, as evidenced by the 14-14 ATS (50%) record since ’03.

·  Turnover Differential has meant very little in terms of predicting Divisional Round games since ’93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 30-36-2 ATS (45%). Little has changed of late either, with edge teams owning a 10-14 ATS (42%) record over the six seasons.

To this point, we have uncovered very little of anything other than Yards Per Rush that has been consistent enough to provide a winning Divisional Round strategy using offensive statistics. Let’s move over to the defensive side of the ball.

·  Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 29-37-2 (44%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93, so we aren’t off to a good start in our research. In fact, it gets even worse more recently, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in the L14.

·  Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 27-22-1 ATS (55%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96, a record much better than those with a PPG allowed edge. Recent findings show that teams with this edge are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons.

·  A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense has proven very important in Divisional Round games, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 41-24-2 ATS (63%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a phenomenal 22-6 ATS (79%) record. You might want to note that Indianapolis finished 19th in the NFL against the rush this season while San Diego was 24th & New Orleans was 27th.

·  Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are only 28-38-2 ATS (42%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, and 9-15 ATS (38%) over the last six seasons. Clearly, run stopping defenses have wreaked bigger havoc in the Divisional Round.

·  When you combine the Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed, you get Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Divisional Round in this stat are 35-31-2 ATS (53%) since ’93, but only 6-10 ATS (38%) over the last four seasons.

·  Defensive Yards per Point has turned out to be an effective & consistent defensive predictor in Divisional Round, if used as a FADE, as teams with an edge in this stat are 25-41-2 ATS (38%) since ’93. The trend has held the same percentage over the last four seasons, 6-10 ATS.

It’s evident from all of the above trends that the Divisional games have proven quite unpredictable if using nothing more than stats, especially when you compare it to the Wildcard Round.

Since rushing stats have proven our best weapon, what about the scenario where a team has the edge in both Offensive and Defensive Yards per Rush in a Divisional matchup? Well, these teams are 20-9 ATS (69%) since ’93, and 17-0 ATS (100%) over the last 11 seasons. I think we just found our GOLDEN NUGGET!!!

Man, I love doing this! I am always astounded about the things we can find. Just think, in the Wildcard Round, it was most important to have shown the ability to score points and throw the football. Here, in the Divisional Round, the run game takes precedence. Any guesses on what it will be next week? We WILL find out when we’re back to look at Conference Championship Sunday! Good luck this weekend.

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

·         The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

·         The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out.

Real Life or Football

      Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

·         Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)

·         Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)

·         In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)

·         In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note these same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)

·         Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)

·         Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)

·         Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)

·         The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.

·         The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.

·         The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

·         Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.

·         Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

·         Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.

·          Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.

·         Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.

·         Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)

·         The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

·         The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

·         Cincinnati at New York Jets is about what happens with New England. If the Patriots win, it’s an exhibition game for the Bengals, if not it’s up to the coaches to figure out what a three seed is worth to them. The Flyboys have to go all out or go home.

·         The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

·         Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

David Stern is the boss of the NBA and like many sports czars, has taken a hard line on sporting wagering on team sports. He was particularly affronted by former referee Tim Donaghy revelations of betting on games he worked, which was in strict violation of the rules of conduct in the league.

At that point, print and television commentators coast to coast suggested the NBA was about to go the way of the Arena Football League, because its public trust had been comprised. And while many wondered what would happen to the NBA, something unexpected occurred that Stern’s minions and most other supposed “know it all’s” didn’t see coming, nothing.

All the presumed outrage, people thinking the NBA was going to become the WWE with predetermined winners (enough people believed that already), however once they started playing basketball, it was business as usual and television ratings have gone up, with attendance hurt by the recession, not by wagering allegations.

Stern recently sat down with Sports Illustrated’s Ian Thomsen and betting on the NBA was brought up during the interview.

During this conversation, it was clear Stern has changed his views on people betting on the NBA for a variety of reasons.

With many countries worldwide accepting wagers on team or individual sports, Stern was asked about potential for scandals.

"We used [the Donaghy revelations] as an opportunity to get better, to coordinate with law enforcement and go through a variety of processes that I don't necessarily want to detail publicly, but you are on ready alert," he said. "And we're mindful of what can happen, because we're more-than-interested bystanders in the European football scandal. Two-hundred [soccer] games are being looked at by law enforcement across the continent. It's fascinating to see what's happening. And we're mindful of the cricket [2007 World Cup match-fixing] issues, of the football referees in Germany -- there's a lot going on."

He then spoke as someone with a greater understanding of the marketplace and where our country is in general. "The betting issues are actually going to become more intense as states in the U.S. and governments in the world decide that the answers to all of their monetary shortfalls are the tax that is gambling."

While Stern stopped short of saying he would approve of such activity openly at this time, when asked if it were in the best interests of the league to seek legalization of sports wagering in the NBA, Thomsen observed a shift in body language of someone who was going to make a point that could later be used against him, but believed his own words.

"It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question, 'No,' " he said."But I think that that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread -- even legally."

In looking at the landscape, where most states have lotteries, Indian casinos and Delaware presently above revenue expectations just allowing NFL parlays, Stern has absorbed all this information and reformulated his thought process.

“Considering the fact that so many state governments -- probably between 40 and 50 -- don't consider it immoral, I don't think that anyone [else] should," Stern went on. "It may be a little immoral, because it really is a tax on the poor, the lotteries. But having said that, it's now a matter of national policy: Gambling is good.

"So we have morphed considerably in our corporate view where we say, Look, Las Vegas is not evil. Las Vegas is a vacation and destination resort, and they have sports gambling and, in fact, there's a federal statute that gives them a monopoly of types [on sports betting]. And we actually supported that statute back in '92."

While Stern has often been considered stubborn and bullish, the whole Donaghy experience has brought out a different side of Stern, one more enlightened and not as close-minded in his beliefs. He sees the popularity of the NFL and has widely varied figures on something related to his sport, basketball, with March Madness, which fills Vegas hotels annually for the opening weekend, and also seemingly everyone filling out a pool sheets and making a bet amongst friends. He understands the revenue potential.

“Gambling, however it may have moved closer to the line [of becoming acceptable], is still viewed on the threat side," he said. "Although we understand fully why, buried within that threat there may be a huge opportunity as well."

Of course Stern will have opposition, but will also have those on side like the Maloof brothers who own the Sacramento Kings and the Palms Hotel and Casino just off the Vegas Strip.

Originally when the Palms was opened, they were allowed to have a sportsbook, but not able to take action on NBA games. The Maloof’s later stated their case after the city hosted the NBA All-Star game, wanting to take wagering action on all NBA games, except those involving the Kings and it was approved.

Stern’s latest comments were music the Sacramento owners’ ears.

“I’m thrilled to hear him say that,” Joe Maloof told Yahoo! Sports on Monday. “I think it does two things: First, it legitimizes gambling. It regulates it. That’s the most important thing. It’s clean. It’s honest. It’s fair.

“And then it creates a tremendous excitement for your product. People react differently when they have a bet on a game versus when they don’t. This is going to bring in great interest. If it’s regulated properly, this can be a tremendous revenue source for the league.”

Nationally, there is too much opposition from groups that want a sanitized world more reminiscent of the 1950’s and early 60’s. However, as individual states look to hang on to government programs and continue to see shortfalls, sports gambling will eventually be pursued more actively as another revenue source that will be taxed and monitored and be enjoyed more openly, as sports leagues like the NBA admit the world won’t end if people bet on sports.

Separate articles from Sports Illustrated.com and Yahoo.com provided the quotes for this piece.

The old story about defenses winning championships has held up to the test of time. On weekly basis this can also be the case, when defensive failures lead to losses. Two teams Sunday that have set high standards this decade were victims to such occurrences.

The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four in a row and are not getting much done defensively. The numbers still show the Steelers are among the best in football, but against the Oakland Raiders Sunday, they looked more like the Cleveland Browns.

The Steelers held THREE fourth quarter leads against the Raiders and couldn’t hold any of them. The new sensational pitch and catch tandem of Bruce Gradkowski and Louis Murphy was unstoppable. When you consider Pittsburgh was a 15-point favorite and Oakland had three total touchdowns in the last quarter in 11 previous games this season, it’s shocking how far the Steelers have fallen since destroying Denver on Nov. 9.

For all the Bill Belichick apologists that felt he made the right move in going for first down at Indianapolis, subsequent losses to New Orleans and Miami have suddenly made the AFC East race more compelling with a month to go. The New England defense isn’t holding up, so maybe Belichick was right and followed his beliefs. This past weekend, Chad Henne went toe to toe with Tom Brady and his team emerged victorious. The other former Michigan quarterback threw for 335 yards against Patriots secondary.

With inferior talent on the last line of defense, New England has been lit up officially for 316, 367 and 328 yards passing in three of the four weeks. The trade of DE Richard Seymour is looking worse all the time, as the Pats have no pass rush. About the only good news is the remaining schedule includes Carolina, @ Buffalo, Jacksonville and @Houston. They should be favored in each and have excellent chance to be paper champs at 11-5, but certainly not feared.

The Dallas Cowboys December woes have been well documented, but what kind of a game plan was that on Sunday in the Meadowlands? Tony Romo was asked to throw 55 times against the Giants. If the Cowboys were trailing 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and were not having much luck catching up, that figure would at least have some credibility. However that wasn’t the case, at all. Dallas trailed by just seven points midway thru the fourth quarter, which was their largest deficit to that point in the game. Having one of the best running games in the NFL, they ran a ridiculous 23 times and played like they were the underdog instead of the favorite. The Dallas coaches get a D- for first Cowboys effort in December with San Diego up next.

If you have ever had your hand slammed by a door, that was similar to the pain Cincinnati backers felt when Detroit back-doored the 13-point favored Bengals with 96 seconds to play.

On Monday and Tuesday, the Tennessee Titans looked like a good bet at Indianapolis, catching seven points. Late Tuesday or Wednesday day depending on the sportsbook, the Titans went to +6.5. By Friday, most of the public money was on Tennessee and according to Las Vegas sources, a good chunk of sharp action was also backing Jeff Fisher’s club. A quick perusal of some forums over the weekend that have handicappers picks listed, showed the Titans as a 25-1 choice, easily the highest I’d seen all season, this going against an unbeaten team playing at home. The rest is history as the Colts covered rather easily.

There are points in a game where it makes sense to go for touchdowns as opposed to field goals and unquestionably having the advantage of looking back offers far greater clarity than living in the moment. Twice coach Fisher went for first down and or touchdowns and failed trying to lower a 24-10 deficit. Looking back, if he would have kicked very makeable field goals from short distances, Tennessee would have trailed just 24-16, still having time to make up the eight points.

Pop the Falcons out of the microwave, they are done.

It was a wild Sunday for bettors, as 10 underdogs covered the spread, which included six of those pooches winning outright. Friends on the Strip tell me it was easily the most profitable NFL weekend of the year, which was made all that much sweeter by Arizona’s easy upset victory over Minnesota.

New England loss wiped out a vast number of parlays and New Orleans decision to kick a field goal in overtime after taking it all the way down to one yard line destroyed six-point parlay cards. As a Las Vegas source told me, “The bean counters will be sending out rare positive emails to their least favorite aspect of the casino.”

By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

 The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.

Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.

This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.

Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and haven’t been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.

 Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC

The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of