How to win betting college basketball tournament games
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conferencechampionships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.

In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1)    Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2)    Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but by five or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.

3)    Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4)    When it doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled. 

5)    Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.

One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6)    Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7)    Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

This will be the first conference of the more prominent mid-majors and they will enjoy a national audience to boot for its championship encounter. Three teams seem head and shoulders above the rest for the 20^th edition of “Arch Madness” in St. Louis and they are Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Illinois State.

The Favorites

Northern Iowa (25-4) is the regular season champion and has been one of the better wagers in college basketball all season at 18-10 ATS. The Panthers have been hanging around the bottom portions of the Top 25 since January and are destined to be in the Big Dance, leaving those to wonder about mindset and the possibility of an upset. Northern Iowa are the defending champs and seek third title since 2004.

Historically, second-seeded Wichita State (23-8, 11-13 ATS) has not played well in this event, carrying a 21-28 record. The Shockers are at least statistically as good if not better than Northern Iowa. Wichita State is tops in The Valley in scoring margin (+8.7), rebounding margin (+4.8), assists (14.6) and steals (7.2). A concern about the Shockers is 1-6 ATS record since Feb. 3 and 6-8 and 5-8 ATS record away from Wichita.

Illinois State (21-9, 12-14-1 ATS) has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in the tournament, having been to the championship game three straight times. The Redbirds have won six of their last seven games, losing only at Northern Iowa in last outing. In order to return to championship, Illinois State will have to play superior defense like they have been lately and receive big contributions from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.

The Long Shots

Fourth seeded Creighton (16-14, 12-15 ATS) has won this event a record 10 times, but doesn’t look they have what it takes this season, particularly with 3-12 SU road record. The Blue Jays will take on Bradley (15-14, 13-15 ATS) in quarterfinal matchup that is already determined and the Braves are in double revenge and are 9-5 SU and ATS with three or more days rest.

Drake, Southern Illinois, Missouri State (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) and Evansville will play the first day in St. Louis. Of this group, the Bears have the best shot of making the semifinals or beyond. Missouri State has made the finals four times since 2001, finishing second each time. They are the top scoring team in the league at 71.9 points per game and convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.

The Numbers

The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 SU and profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.

There have been 11 instances since 2004 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.

Large FAVORITES or those laying seven-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.

Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

The Outcome

In the top half of the bracket, Northern Iowa faces Bradley in the semi-finals, who pull the minor upset of Creighton. The Braves have split two games with the Panthers, covering each time and are nipped in the rubber game. Missouri State shocks Wichita State in the quarters and falls to Illinois State who limits their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale.

The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon and will not a thrill a minute spectacular, with the projected total in the low 120’s. Illinois State will provide strong competition and play even or close most of the way, until Northern Iowa’s veteran experience takes over in the last five minutes and closes the deal, giving them two straight Arch Madness crowns.

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

For many of the smaller conferences, the regular season concludes this weekend, while the larger leagues are still fighting to determine who the regular season champions will be. This Saturday and Sunday, a large number of these confrontations are on tap in several conferences and college basketball bettors are going to have to bring their A-game to determine winners and spread beaters. Enjoy the fray.

Saturday, Feb. 27

Northeastern at George Mason 12:00E ESPN2

One of the most underrated leagues in college basketball is the Colonial Athletic Conference. Each season is highly competitive and the top teams have invariably pulled a few upsets over BCS-type conferences and the quality of play usually leads to good showings in the NCAA Tourney or the minor post-season events. On the final weekend of the regular season, Northeastern (18-11, 15-12-1 ATS) can still tie for conference crown with Old Dominion with a win and Monarchs loss, thanks to league leading defense that has permitted more than 64 points in CAA action just once. The Huskies are 7-5 and 8-3 ATS on the road this season.

George Mason (17-12, 10-15-1 ATS) sky-rocketed to the top off conference standings with 10-1 record, but a closer look revealed a 5-5-1 ATS mark, providing info the Patriots were not quite as potent as they appeared. February has been cruel to George Mason (2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS), as the freshmen stocked team has hit the wall. Don’t be shocked if senior guard Cam Long has a big day in his last home game at the Patriot Center. Watch for oddsmakers number since Patriots are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.

George Mason has won and covered previous four confrontations in Fairfax, VA and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in these CAA contests

Kentucky at Tennessee  12:00E CBS (split)

Nothing stirs the orange-clad Tennessee fans to see red, like the blue in Kentucky basketball uniform. The Hatfield’s and McCoy’s feud had nothing on these two universities, where genuine hatred exists between the neighboring states. Coach Bruce Pearl has coached up his team since the trials and tribulations of the new year occurred, however recently, the loss of Tyler Smith, injuries and slumps have seen them struggle. “You can’t feel sorry for ourselves,” senior guard J.P. Prince said. Pearl almost assuredly will be in the orange sports jacket and the Vols (20-7, 10-14 ATS) are 20-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

Though Kentucky (27-1, 15-11 ATS) plays its four freshmen extensively, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are arguably as talented as anyone playing their respective positions. The earlier South Carolina road loss may have been a blessing, since forward Patrick Patterson listened to the criticism and has raised his play to the level of his ability and his team has gone on to win eight straight (6-2 ATS). He was the difference-maker in recent overtime wins at Mississippi State and at Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 7-2 ATS dating back to last season if the opponent has a winning home record.

Kentucky has taken seven of the last dozen in Knoxville, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS wherever they have played in previous 13 outings.

Arizona State at California  3:00E FSN

These are likely to be the only two Pac-10 schools invited to the Big Dance and if either falters in their conference tournament early, even that becomes a question mark. This is Arizona State’s third consecutive and final road game of the year and they hope next weekend’s home finales will be meaningful for the Pac-10 title. The first order of business is knocking off Cal and the Sun Devils (20-8, 11-13 ATS) don’t believe in trickery to upset opposing teams.  Arizona State isn’t going to “wow” anyone with personnel, instead they play defense and take care of the ball, which is why they are 8-1 ATS in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers.

California (19-9, 15-12 ATS) was the preseason choice to win the Pac-10 and they have positioned themselves to do just that 11-5 record. Senior point guard Jerome Randle, with a strong finish might be conference Player of the Year and fellow senior Jamal Boykin has been playing his best basketball of the season. The Bears are a much better club when sophomore guard Jorge Gutierrez (out six games in January) is on the floor, because he adds ferocity and energy. Cal is 15-3 ATS at home facing a team with a winning record.

Both teams have five conferences defeats and California has a game in hand, having only Stanford remaining on the schedule. The Bears won in Tempe 78-70 as four-point underdogs previously and are 14-1 and 10-4 ATS at home, mauling opponents by 19.3 points per contest. Cal is 7-5 at the Haas Pavilion against ASU since ’97, however have only covered the spread three times.

Kansas at Oklahoma State  4:00E CBS

The Jayhawks (27-1, 10-14-1 ATS) have been learning valuable lessons as the season has progressed. Being No. 1 most of the year has forced the Kansas players to expect everyone to be gunning for them. In games at Kansas State, at Colorado, at Texas A&M and even at home vs. Baylor, the Jayhawks had to fight to win, were a less mentally strong team would have lost. Coach Bill Self has his squad back playing for each other and nobody wants to let anyone down. The next adventure is in Stillwater and Kansas is 17-4 ATS against teams with 60%-80% win percentage.

The Cowboys (19-8, 12-8-1 ATS) internal mettle is being tested, facing their third consecutive ranked team in the Jayhawks, after beating Baylor and tumbling to Texas. Any chance for an upset lies in the hands of James Anderson. The junior guard can go from mild to habanero hot in two shots and teammates Keiton Page, Obi Muonelo and Matt Pilgrim end up benefiting as opponents become focused on cooling down Anderson. Oklahoma State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big 12, which won’t cut it against Kansas. Okie State is 15-5 ATS on own floor vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or more points a contest.

The Cowboys have split six tilts at home vs. Kansas with four covers and the UNDER is 5-0.

New Mexico at BYU  4:00E VERSUS

The Mountain West crown could be on the line in Provo, with New Mexico (26-3, 17-10-1 ATS) looking for the sweep of BYU. The Lobos have been dealing and have ample confidence, which is supported by 9-2 and 5-5-1 ATS road record. We're just real confident," senior forward Roman Martinez said. "We always respect our opponent, but I think we're playing confident now and more calm than we used to be." This will help New Mexico who is 12-3 and 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days off.

This MWC matchup is doubly important for BYU (26-3, 16-10 ATS), since they try to even season series and still have road games remaining. Senior Jonathan Tavernari has had a relatively disappointing final season, nevertheless has started to find the range in last few weeks, proving why he is the school’s 12th all-time leading scorer. Tavernari has maintained a positive outlook as being just the Cougars fourth leading scorer this season. “The reason this team is so good is we have so many options," Tavernari said. BYU is on 12-1 ATS mission in February contests.

With both clubs having two losses in the conference, the straight up winner is perfect 13-0 ATS since 2003.

Villanova at Syracuse  9:00E ESPN

While this won’t necessarily determine the champion of the Big East, it will go a long way towards deciding it. This is the most anticipated regular season game of the year in the conference and Scottie Reynolds will lead a veteran Villanova (23-4, 17-9 ATS) squad into the Carrier Dome, long on big game experience. Both teams have talented deep backcourts, which could offset one another, meaning what goes on in the painted area might determine your winner. Forward Antonio Pena, will need the likes of Taylor King, Maurice Sutton, Isaiah Armwood and possibly even Mouphtaou Yarou, all to be a factor for a club that 11-3 and 9-5 ATS away from home.

Coach Jay Wright will play funky defenses designed to confuse, which he can with his guard contingent that are amoeba-like in adaptability, which is why Syracuse (26-2, 17-7 ATS) has to establish dominance in the lane. Finding ways to feed the post to Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku opens up wing players like Wes Johnson and sub Kris Joseph, to score in various ways and clears shooting lines for Andy Rautins and others. The Orangemen are 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams permitting 42 or less field goal accuracy. 

Coaching adjustments will also be important and so will rebounding. The team with most boards is 13-1 SU and ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 28

Richmond at Xavier 1:00E  ESPN2

It wasn’t supposed to be this way in the Atlantic 10, with three teams tied for first place this late in the campaign, especially if the roll call was Richmond, Xavier and Temple. The Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS) have given opposing teams arachnophobia, with its crawling defense that permits just 60.1 points per game. Richmond plays mostly upperclassmen, many of whom were on 8-22 squad from three years ago. The Spiders defense really started to get under opponents skin when coach Chris Mooney inserted center Darrius Garrett into starting lineup, being a shot blocking specialist. Who makes Richmond go is 5’11 Kevin Anderson, whose elevated the program to first Top 25 ranking in 24 years. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS this season as creepy underdogs.

Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS) was thought to have lost too much talent from last season and not defend their A-10 crown. Taking a wider perspective, new coach Chris Mack took over a program widely successful and placed his personal stamp on in, having senior Jason Love follow his lead. What Musketeers insiders have marveled at is Mack sets expectations for each player on the team and demands they meet them every day. He doesn’t holler and scream all the time, but uses several techniques to keep them focused on pushing themselves. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford has helped this team exceed others expectations, not Xavier’s. The Musketeers are 13-0 and 10-2 ATS at the Cintas Center, destroying foes by 23.4 points per game.

Xavier is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine matchups.

Michigan State at Purdue  4:00E  CBS

The way the Big Ten schedule has played out, every couple of days, a national game of importance is on tap and another is coming on Sunday. Despite a collection of top returning players, it has been anything but easy for Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS). After losing three straight to start February, the Spartans had been showing signs of improving daily (until Ohio State), with guard Kalin Lucas back in control from sprained ankle. Others like Durrell Summers are finally playing smarter and Tom Izzo’s crew is 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss.

A win against Michigan State might well place Purdue (24-3, 13-14 ATS) on the top row to draw a top seed when the tournament bids come out in couple of weeks, however that belief is now clouded with the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel. Like coach Izzo, Matt Painter deserves a boiler room full of credit, riding out tumultuous times in the early part of Big Ten schedule. The Boilermakers stayed the course, fought thru the challenging moments and emerged a mentally tougher club, with road wins at Champaign, East Lansing and Columbus. In Purdue’s latest winning streak, center JaJuan Johnson has been a beast and E'Twaun Moore is their leading scorer. However, Hummel was second leading scorer and rebounder on a team not blessed with size. Purdue will have to adjust swiftly and they are 16-5 ATS vs. teams averaging 16 assists a game.

Purdue is 5-1 SU and ATS when Spartans come to Mackey Arena.

Clemson at Florida State   5:30E FSN

The bracketolgists (is there a more worthless job) of college hoops have seven ACC teams making the field of 65 right now. If this information is to be believed, these two teams are fighting to move up toward better seeds, making this a mega-matchup in the ACC. Clemson (19-8, 12-12 ATS) is like Mark McGwire on roids at home (13-2, 9-3 ATS) and about as intimidating as David Spade on the road (4-5 SU and 0-4 ATS as road pooch). The Tigers are in the midst of playing last three of five conference conflicts away from home and are 0-9 ATS in road tilts taking on teams with a winning record.

Most so-called experts believe Florida State (20-7, 8-14 ATS) has to hold serve in last two home games to punch their ticket for NCAA berth. The Seminoles have been a potent squad at the Donald L. Tucker Center at 12-2, but a woeful wager at 2-8 ATS. Florida State has been at or near the top of the defensive field goal percentage numbers all season in the ACC and has the ability to stifle Clemson, who malfunctions when it comes to half court offense. Center Solomon Alabi has been the team’s leading scorer (12.0) and he’ll have a chance to improve the Noles fortunes.

Clemson is only 3-9 and 6-6 ATS in Tallahassee.

Stop

East vs. West in NBA Televised Betting Conflicts

Once again this season, the Western Conference has the edge over the East. The West has 11 teams at .500 or better, compared to those from the Eastern side with eight. One distinct disadvantage the East has is New Jersey (1-21 SU vs. the West), that would be the Nets, not the state. ESPN will have two confrontations to wager on Friday night with the NBA bettor being able to show his allegiance.

Dallas at Atlanta 7:00 E

While a number of Eastern Conference teams have been pummeled by the West, one club that hasn’t is Atlanta (36-20, 34-22 ATS). The Hawks are 18-8 against the other conference with a 15-11 ATS mark. Atlanta is even more imposing at Phillips Arena with 10-1 (6-5 ATS) record.

The Hawks return home from .500 four game road trip and gave a run of the mill performance in defeating Minnesota 98-92 as 11.5-point favorites. Atlanta was bailed out by Josh Smith, who had 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.

He was all over the place,” coach Mike Woodson said. “He blocked some shots. He scored for us, made some free throws. He was solid from beginning to end, and we’re going to need him the rest of the way.” Atlanta is 18-9 ATS after playing a home game this season.

The Hawks are going to need Smith and a complete team effort to slow down Dallas (37-21, 24-34 ATS). The Mavericks have won five in a row and have really put the defensive clamps down on opposing teams, limiting them to 90.2 points per game during this win streak. Dallas has a number of negative trends this season, but they are 16-9 ATS when they hold opponents to 96 or fewer points.

The Mavs are only three-point road underdogs at Sportsbet.com, possibly because they are 17-5 (10-12 ATS) against the East. Dallas will have to overcome frightening angle that has them at 5-15 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season. Atlanta on the other hand is 22-6 and 19-10 ATS at home and 26-12 ATS on their own court after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two years.

Atlanta has won and covered last two meeting at home and is 17-6 OVER after one or more Under’s this season. The Hawks also won at Dallas 80-75 on Dec. 5 as six-point underdogs and the Mavericks are 9-1 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite.

Orlando at New Orleans 9:30 E

The Magic have won 13 of last 17 (9-7-1 ATS) and no tricks have been involved. Center Dwight Howard has been the centerpiece of Orlando (39-19, 28-26-4 ATS) surge, that has catapulted them into first place in the Southwest Division and ahead of Boston for the second best record in the East.

“He’s worked hard. He’s made improvement and I think he’s going to play at a high level all of the time.” – Coach Stan Van Gundy said about Howard.

The Magic humiliated Houston 110-92 at their place and is 17-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest. Orlando has been above average against the West with 12-8 mark and 8-9-3 ATS record.

New Orleans (30-28, 29-29 ATS) could use some help, having lost seven of last 11. The Hornets have pressed on without their leader Chris Paul, as their rookie backcourt of Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton has played well on the offensive end, but possibly isn’t getting the rest of the team into the offense. As one might expect, defense is an on-going lesson for this duo at this level and they and their teammates permitted Milwaukee to score 72 of their 115 points in the paint in last outing, which is dreadful, since the Bucks aren’t exactly known as inside scoring team.

We just didn’t have enough fight, which is inexcusable for a team like this,” Collison said. “Mentally, we weren’t in it on the defensive end.” The Hornets will have to get into it or they will fall to 2-11 ATS on Friday night’s.

New Orleans is five-point home underdog with total of 201 and they are 10-15 (13-12 ATS) facing teams east of the nearby Mississippi River. The Hornets lost by six at Orlando earlier this month and is 25-11 ATS at home revenging a same season loss and 14-3 UNDER as a home underdog. The Magic has mesmerized non-conference foes on the road the last three years with 29-13 ATS record and is 16-6 UNDER as a road favorite this season.

The Hornets are 5-4 and 4-5 ATS against Orlando since moving to the Crescent City.

With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. Televised SEC action has teams playing for conference championship or trying to work their way into NCAA field. The Big Ten will have two important tests that will separate the have’s from the have not’s, while league leaders from ACC and Big East try to keep top quality competition from moving in on their space. As a bonus, we’ll throw in at no extra charge an under the wire Bracket Buster battle with the second best team out of the Missouri Valley against the finest from the WAC. Happy wagering!

Saturday, Feb. 20

Florida at Mississippi 12:00E CBS (split)

The Gators (18-8, 11-10 ATS) are not going to win SEC East, thus the next order of business is setting wheels into motion having a resume NCAA Tournament officials will like, which as we have found out in recent years includes high caliber road wins. Florida (4-3 and 4-2 ATS as true visitors) will have three chances before the SEC tourney to boost status and they are not helping themselves having lost three of previous six contests. Improved defense and rebounding are tantamount and coach Billy Donovan has taken some of the ball-handling duties away from guard Erving Walker, after he suffered a volume of turnovers, which produced better results initially. Florida has to control pace since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, basically dependant on what they can accomplish outside the paint. Led by Chris Warren, the Rebels are seeking school’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2002, however Mississippi will probably have to win out to have chance since they have lost four of five (1-3-1 ATS). In the SEC, any win is a good win and coach Andy Kennedy does need more from forward DeAundre Cranston, as opponents are stretching defense further out, not believing Mississippi can score consistently near the basket. Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with 60-80 win percentage over the last three seasons.

The teams have split last six in Oxford with Florida 5-1 ATS.

Illinois at Purdue 4:00E ESPN

Considered as relevant as having an Indian for a mascot until a few years ago after three Big Ten losses in the middle of January, the Fighting Illini (17-9, 9-14-1 ATS) and the departed Chief Illiniwek have proved their not done yet. The light bulb has gone on for Demetri McCamey after a lackluster start and he’s become the team leader. Coach Bruce Webber benched McCamey and more recently Mike Davis and Brandon Paul and each has responded positively, with more assertive play on both ends of the floor, bringing Illinois into title contention, one loss behind leaders Purdue and Michigan State. The Illini lost to the Boilermakers 84-78 earlier and are 25-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.

Purdue (22-3, 13-12 ATS) has also overcame a three game losing streak in Big Ten play to work their way back into virtual tie with Michigan State, winning eight straight (5-3 ATS). The Boilermakers are back to playing team basketball and their “Big Three” of Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, are delivering like Dominoes. Coach Matt Painter has everyone on the same page, understanding their roles and the defensive intensity has returned, along with greater precision on the offense. Purdue is 12-3 ATS in February at Mackey Arena.

The home team is a mere 7-6-1 ATS since Feb. of 2002, with road team 5-1 ATS in last six meetings.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt 6:00E ESPN

Ask any SEC coach their least favorite venue in the league and the immediate answer is “Vanderbilt”. Coach John Calipari will have the same hopeless feeling, splitting two halves 60 or more feet away from his team on offense or defense. This feeling will be further intensified since the Commodores are exceptional team, in revenge mode and 13-0 (6-5 ATS) at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt (20-5, 12-10 ATS) is among the better shooting teams in the country at over 48 percent and is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

The last time these teams met on Jan. 30, Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) built a double digit working margin and never let the Commodores in the game in 85-72 victory. The Wildcats controlled the glass with an astounding +19 rebound margin and scored in the paint when needed. Forward Patrick Patterson deserves props, no longer playing like he was at lido, becoming more aggressive scoring and rebounding. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in authentic road games having won five of their last six contests.

These clubs are .500 SU and ATS at Nashville since 1997, thought Vanderbilt has won four in a row at home (2-2 ATS). The ‘Dores can tie Kentucky for SEC lead with an upset; however the favorite is 4-1 in previous five conflicts.

Wichita State at Utah State 11:59E ESPN2

The Shockers (22-6, 10-11 ATS) have been an elite team all year in The Valley, with their fine 11-5 record, good for second position behind Northern Iowa. Yet coach Gregg Marshall has concerns. "I think we may have hit a wall," Marshall said, referring to his club 3-2 mark in last five games, covering just one time. Wichita State will have their hands full taking on Utah State who is 62-2 SU at home, playing at 11:00 PM local time and playing at elevation. A win here would help team regain confidence and the Shockers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference tilts.

Utah State (21-6, 14-8-1 ATS) once again sits atop the WAC at 11-2, riding an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS). A large part of the Aggies success under coach Stew Morrill is their ability to work the ball and take quality shots, which they are doing again this season with 48.6 percent shooting percentage. Balance is what makes this offense so reliable, with nation’s best three-point shooting (42.4%) and having at least four scorers in double figure most games. The Aggies won but didn’t cover in last outing and are 15-5-1 against the spread after ATS loss. Utah State is 14-1 and 8-4 ATS at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum this season.

Sunday, Feb. 21

Ohio State at Michigan State 12:00E CBS (split)

The Big Ten Conference has taken on the appearance of one of Hugh Hefner’s girlfriends, loaded at the top. Two teams fighting to gain control of the league lead are the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) has been like a stealth bomber, occasionally seen but seldom noticed. Coach Thad Matta compares this group to the year before Greg Oden and company arrived to advance be NCAA runner-up.  “I think this team is probably more efficient than that (2005-06) team was offensively,” Matta said. Led by forward Evan Turner, a player of the year candidate, the Buckeyes are a robust 23-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

Michigan State (21-6) plays three of last four games at home and has to win all three if they want to maintain Big Ten title hopes. The Spartans are surprisingly not mentally sturdy, especially when Kalin Lucas isn’t on the floor. Durrell Summers, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe have not been come back better players after finishing second to North Carolina last season, which is why coach Tom Izzo’s club has been play against club at 10-16 ATS, in spite of lofty status. Sparty is 13-1 at home, but just 4-9 ATS this year.

Michigan State has won eight of last 10 over Buckeyes at the Breslin Center and can effectively end there conference title hopes, yet have uneasy 3-5-2 ATS record against the Buckeyes.

Villanova at Pittsburgh 12:00E CBS (split)

Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) has been undaunted in their pursuit of being Big East regular season champions and look to continue quest on the road. As good as the Wildcats amazing guards are, they couldn’t possibly have such a tremendous record without help inside. 6’8 Antonio Pena is masquerading as a center for Villanova and is their only true low post scorer and does excellent work as reliable interior defender. Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and 6’11 Maurice Sutton all bring something most games to negate opponents frontline, letting Nova’s guards control the contest. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.  

Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS) flew by preseason presumptions starting 15-2, but once it was game after game in the Big East, the Panthers looked very much like the squad prognosticators believed they would be, losing four of five at one point. With a favorable slate the rest of the way, Pittsburgh has four game winning streak and can further change minds and attitudes with an upset win here. What doomed Pitt in that losing spell was the offense went stagnant, lacking no ball movement, with too many contested shots. Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker have since recovered and Pitt is 10-1 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record after 15 or more games.

Pittsburgh has tamed the Wildcats at home with 5-0 SU and ATS mark.

Virginia Tech at Duke 7:45E  FSN

It’s the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are grittier bunch. “We win ugly games. That’s our team,” junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come thru when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game.

Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on home floor, winning by gargantuan 27.6 points per game.

Stop

Bracket Buster is Opportunity to Win and Learn

This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.

Friday, Feb.19

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa 7:00E ESPN2

Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.

Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however he’s been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6’9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Siena at Butler  11:00E ESPN2

Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.

It’s a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butler’s seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern 1:00E  ESPN2

If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6’7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and they’ve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

The old story of “you don’t learn anything by losing” doesn’t apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.

New Mexico State at Pacific 10:00E ESPNU

It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.

This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.

The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.

Villanova at Georgetown 12:00E ESPN

While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.

It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet. Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.

Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.

Xavier at Dayton 12:00E ESPN2

The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.

The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.

Wake Forest at Virginia 12:00E ESPN Full Court

Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 38-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.

Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.

Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.

Wisconsin at Michigan   4:00E CBS

Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.

Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.

The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.

BYU at UNLV   4:00E VERSUS

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.

UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.

Michigan State at Illinois  9:00E ESPN

Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 6-13-1 ATS this season.

The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.

Tulsa at UTEP 10:00E  ESPN2

Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.

The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.

Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs this upcoming Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettors. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover, but they lose outright.

The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread with seven outright losers, six from the AFC.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at BetUS.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself.

The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and 2000 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, which could lead to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo along with a talented offensive line averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and don’t worry about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season with .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome and he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, trusting his arm along with coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. If DE Ray Edwards brings it again, Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for NFC title game failure two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

After surviving Green Bay in the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history, the defending NFC champion Cardinals will head to The Big Easy. This first divisional playoff game has all the makings of spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head.

Arizona (11-6, 9-7 ATS) is coming off an amazing offensive game. Led by Kurt Warner completing 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns, the Cardinals were able to survive against Green Bay. This was the second time the future Hall of Famer had more touchdown then incompletions (in 1999 he was 20 for 23 with five TD passes against San Francisco when playing with St. Louis) in his career.

The Cardinals are the most offbeat team in the NFL that wins division titles. When coach Ken  Whistenhunt’s squad has nothing to play for, they resemble many of the Cardinals teams of the past, playing inept football. While most experts and former football players say no team can just “flip the switch” and play at their peak, Arizona has confounded everyone the last two years and done just that in registering 8-1 ATS record when playing against a top-level team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher.

In the past, Arizona was among the most meager of traveling teams, however they are 7-2 and 5-3-1 ATS in last nine road trips, allowing 17 points per contest. Their defense was shredded last week by Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, but they are 6-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

New Orleans (13-3, 8-8 ATS) after winning their first 13 games of the season, lost their last three and have a similar curiosity factor as Conan O’Brien as people want to see what the Saints will do next. Drew Brees was on his way to MVP season, but trailed off in the second half as opposing teams looked to take away the run and force New Orleans into more obvious passing situations and blitzed Brees more accordingly.

Historically, the Saints haven’t handled adversity well with 8-19 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. Coach Sean Payton believes this team is better prepared for this spot, since they are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at the Super Dome the last two seasons and has scored 32.1 points per game.

New Orleans has to be encouraged going against the Cardinals defense, since their receivers are at least as deep and talented as Green Bay’s and Arizona has weaknesses beyond its main three players in the secondary. The Saints big play offense is 15-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt.

Betus.com installed New Orleans as a touchdown favorite with total of 57 points, the highest such playoff figure dating back to at least 1988. Teams that have lost their last two games against the spread during the regular season are 13-5 ATS this round (this will include the Colts also) and the Saints are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER at home after one or more spread losses.

Arizona is one two teams this weekend that drew the short straw, having to play a rested team on just six days rest and loses even more time playing the latter game last week and having to travel East. Look for the Cardinals to test the Saints soft run defense with Beanie Wells to open up the passing game. Expect Warner to try and hit big play early to help build team confidence. The Cards secondary has to have better idea scheme-wise and take correct angles for tackling purposes. The defensive line can’t let Brees stand in the pocket, otherwise these birds are cooked. Arizona is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 8-2 UNDER after one or more wins this season.

New Orleans has to do what Arizona did last week, start fast and hope defense can hold up. Their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games and this team needs a shot of confidence from the get-go. Coach Payton has to get Arizona defense off-balance like last week and keep them guessing. With Saints expected to be as healthy as they’ve been in a month, Reggie Bush and Robert Meachem are real keys against team that is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in the postseason since last year.

Baltimore at Indianapolis Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The AFC’s #1 seed is in action on Saturday evening, and  hoping to snap out of a losing funk. The Colts won their first 14 games before losing the final two amidst a controversy of deciding to rest starters. While most players and coaches agree Indianapolis head man Jim Caldwell did the right thing in looking at the broader view of trying to get to another Super Bowl, he has left himself wide open for criticism if they would falter against Baltimore.

Defensively, Peyton Manning and Colts know the Ravens first order of business is to take away the run, which is not a big deal for them since they only average 81 yards per game on the ground anyway. This Indianapolis team can’t abandon the run entirely, seeking to keep average of around 23 carries per game. Where the offensive line really has to perform is in the passing game, protecting Manning against the blitzes he will face. They will have no excuse after the way Baltimore started at New England, slugging them in the mouth and the Patriots not responding. The Colts won 14 games, had 10-6 ATS mark and should know exactly what to do.

The Ravens (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) didn’t lose seven games by accident, they have very definable weaknesses. The Colts figure to attack Baltimore on the perimeter, since their corners are not strong at keeping coverage, particularly on deeper patterns where they have to turn and run with receivers. Indy will experiment in the first quarter with Dallas Clark. If Baltimore decides to utilize Ed Reed in more single coverage on Clark, that opens the rest of the field for Manning to attack their greatest deficiency. If instead they let linebackers and a strong safety try and guard Clark, he’s too much of mismatch, which the Colts can exploit.

The Indianapolis defense cannot let Baltimore dictate tempo. Coach John Harbaugh has determined the best way for his team to win and it is as basic as it gets, blocking and tackling. If the Ravens three-headed running monster is in second or third and short continually, Baltimore sends Indy packing in first playoff game for the four time in five years and raises postseason mark to 9-3 SU and ATS. The blue-clad Colts are 13-5 and ugly 6-12 ATS in last 18 home assignments.

Baltimore can pull the upset, but they must stay in character and hit a few big plays. The Ravens have lost seven straight to Indianapolis, covering the spread only once, which included Nov. 22, 17-15 defeat as one-point home underdog. The Birds have manufactured just 11.6 points per game against Indy’s defense in this stretch. That means Joe Flacco has to hit deep passes or Ray Rice has to bust a long run or two. If Baltimore offensive can set the tempo, they move to 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in two straight times.

Sportbet.com has the Ravens catching six points with total of 44. For many bettors Baltimore looks to be the play, given their strong defense and tough-minded attitude. While those are admirable qualities, remember teams that won as road underdogs in the Wild Card round are 3-8 ATS in next outing. Similar to Arizona, Ray Lewis’ squad had just six days off and is playing their fourth consecutive road game. When does the well run dry?

Lewis and the defense will have to be lucky and good. They will have to disguise coverage’s and hopefully make Manning a bit anxious, blitzing on early downs and keeping eight men in coverage on passing downs. Baltimore is 13-2 ATS when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards and 10-1 ATS when they rush for 125 or more yards.

In the teams last eight meetings when the total is in the 40’s, the UNDER is 6-2.

Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

And now there are eight, teams that is, still vying for the NFL championship. Hopefully, the four Wildcard Round games treated you well. Either way, what happened last weekend is in the past; it’s time now to look ahead to the Divisional Round. Four more games are on tap, two on Saturday, and two on Sunday, with side, total, and other wagering opportunities beaconing. With that said, like last week, I am here to take a closer look at the recent betting history of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Let’s get to it.

One of the things you need to consider before beginning your Divisional Round playoff handicapping is that the results of recent years have been downright alarming, absolutely dominated by road teams, not only at the betting window, but actually in who wins and moves on as well. In fact, the last 14 Divisional Round games have seen visiting clubs go 9-5 SU & 12-2 ATS. Pittsburgh (over San Diego) last January, and Green Bay (over Seattle) in ’07 are the only exceptions of home teams that have both won and covered their games. To consider how big of a change this is, from ’95 to ’01, home teams in the Divisional Round owned a record of 22-6 SU & 17-10-1 ATS. It seems that earning that first round bye in the postseason and being able to host this second round game has not proven advantageous at all. Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota will look to change that this weekend.

With such distinctive trends to begin with, it’s a good bet that we can come up with even better information simply by digging deeper. Let’s do just that, by looking at the lines, totals, scores, matchups, and stats that should be a part of your normal handicapping routine anyway.

General Divisional Trends
I’ve already touched on the fact that road teams have covered 12 of the last 14 Divisional Round games in the NFL playoffs. If you go back much further, to ’93, you’d see that road teams own only a slight 34-32-2 ATS edge though. That means that recent developments have differed from the norm. Does it go back this season? That remains to be seen. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might find useful for the weekend:

·  Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings after applying 3.5-points for home field advantage were 4-0 ATS in the ’09 Divisional Round.

·  The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to Divisional performance, as Saturday home teams are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS since ’05 while Sunday hosts have gone just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS.

·  In general, the Divisional Round has been a low scoring round, with the UNDER on the total going 11-6-1 in the last 18, producing 42.0 PPG on totals averaging 43.6.

·  In the recent 14 game stretch of dominance by road teams in the Divisional Round, the nine road outright wins have been accompanied by seven UNDER’s on the total, while the five home team wins have gone OVER the total at a 4-0-1 rate. In other words, correlated parlays should read ROAD-UNDER or HOME-OVER.

·  There have only been 11 inter-divisional games in this round over the last 17 years, with home teams owning a 7-4 SU & 5-5-1 ATS record in that span. These have been lower scoring games, with seven of the 11 going UNDER the total.

Trends by Seed Number
There have been some interesting performance observations when you consider the seed number of the team playing in a Divisional Round game. Take a look:

·  The performance of the #1 seeds has been particularly troubling of late, as they have lost seven straight games ATS and are just 2-5 SU in that span. They are just 2-10 ATS dating back to ’04, after having gone 14-4 SU & ATS in the prior 18. The #2 seeds have been more reliable, going 2-2 ATS in the last two seasons, and 5-5 ATS since ’04.

·  The #3 seeds are on a 6-2 ATS & 6-2 OVER run in ’03. #4 seeds are 6-2 UNDER in that same span and 4-4 ATS in their last eight Divisional Round games, but 3-1 ATS vs. the #1 in that span.

·  Dating back to ’96, #5 seeds that have reached the Divisional Round have been exceptional bets, going 7-2 ATS (4-5 SU).

·  Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Divisional Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.

·  There has been a distinct difference in total results dependent upon the seed number of the host recently. In the last seven seasons, #1 seeds are 11-2-1 UNDER the total, while #2 seeds have gone 9-5 OVER the total.

Line Range Trends
Lines in the Divisional Round have been chalk-heavy, with the average favorite laying 7.1 points since ’93. Furthermore, 35 of the 68 games have had a line of a TD or more and only once has there been a home underdog in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:

·  Sizeable home favorites have not been a solid bet in the Divisional Round of late, as those laying a TD or more (7 pts) are just 6-5 SU & 3-8 ATS (27%) since ’04, including three straight outright losses.

·  There have been four double-digit favorites in the last four years of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Those teams are an ugly 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.

·  In Divisional Round games where the final pointspread closed at 5-points or less, the road team has been nearly automatic, going 8-7 SU & 11-3-1 ATS (79%) since ‘98. The UNDER is also 11-4 in those games.

·  Bettors haven’t had nearly the success dealing with the opening lines in Divisional Playoff games as they did in the Wildcard Round. In fact, when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since ’93 in the Divisional Round, this “smart money” just 24-29 ATS (45%). What’s more, in 40 of the 54 games, bettors sided with the host team.

·  The line movement numbers get downright ugly for bettors when you only consider recent years. Over the last six playoff years, line moves have only shown a 5-15 ATS (25%) record. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move.

·  Interestingly, in the Divisional Round playoff games since ’05, seven games have seen the opening line move by 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In those games, bettors have been wrong on the line move EVERY TIME (0-7 ATS).

Total Range Trends
As mentioned before, the majority of Divisional games have gone UNDER the total in recent years. Let’s see what else we can uncover regarding totals:

·  Similarly to the Wildcard Round, extreme totals in Divisional Playoff games have produced mostly OVER games, while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower scoring games. Dating back to ’99, in games with totals posted at either less than 38 or more than 48, OVER the total is 14-6-1 (70%). In games inside that range, the UNDER has been the way to go, 16-6 (73%).

·  The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in the Divisional Round, as since ’93, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 14-8 (64%). When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 22-16 (58%). Combined, following the total move has netted a 60% chance of winning.

·  The success of following the money on a total bet drops dramatically if the total move was 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since ’93, this “smart money” has gone 11-11 (50%).

Scoring Trends
Like the Wildcard Round, there are certain point thresholds that teams reach in the Divisional Round that greatly influence their chances of winning or losing.

·  Home teams that fail to reach 20 points have a little better chance of winning in the Divisional Round than in the Wildcard Round according to recent history, having gone just 4-13 SU as compared to 1-13 SU since ’93. However, those teams have not covered a pointspread in that time, going 0-16-1 ATS.

·  Those home teams that do reach and/or exceed the 20-point mark have gone 44-7 SU & 32-18-1 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, five of these outright losses have come since ’04, and the record in those games is just 12-5 SU & 7-10 ATS, as road team scoring has picked up.

·  The frequency of road teams winning in the Divisional Round when they fail to reach 20 points has been one in eight games (5-35 SU & 13-25-2 ATS) over the last 17 years. If you recall the Wildcard Round stat on this, these same teams were just 1-31 SU & 1-30-1 ATS since ’93.

·  Road teams that do make it to 20 points or higher are only 15-13 SU but 21-7 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. Recently though, or over the last nine years, they are 11-6 SU & 15-2 ATS, making this strategy one to consider as you analyze this weekend’s scoring potential.

Trends based upon Won-Lost Records
Strangely, there have 26 of 68 games in the last 17 years of the Divisional Playoffs that have matched teams with the same number of wins or the road team actually having won more games. Such situations have proven very good indicators that the road team was going to cover the pointspread, as they are 15-10-1 ATS. Since ’04, they are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. Here are a couple of other trends concerning won-lost marks and the Divisional Round:

·  All four of this year’s home teams in the Divisional Round have won 12 games or more in the regular season. From 1995-2003, such divisional hosts were 20-6 SU & 18-7-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Since however, they are just 11-10 SU & 6-15 ATS, including 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS against a road team with 12 or more wins (incl. Wildcard win).

·  This is typically the end of the line for road teams that won nine or fewer games in the regular season, as they are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS in the Divisional Round since 93.

·  Road teams that won 11 or more games in the regular season then added a victory in the Wildcard Round have proven very dangerous over the last six years in the Divisional Round. In that time span, such road teams are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS. The only host to both win and cover against such a club was the 2004-05 Patriots, who beat Indy 20-3.

·  Trends based upon Statistical Traits
Going into Divisional playoff games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous week’s Wildcard games.

·  Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 39-27-2 ATS (59%) in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, since ’02, the effectiveness of this particular stat has waned, with a record of just 16-15-1 ATS (52%).

·  Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 25-25-2 (50%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96. Again though, over the last eight seasons, the team with the edge in this category has dropped to 14-17-1 (45%).

·  The ability to run the football has proven more important in Divisional games than in the Wildcard Round of late, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Yards Per Rush are 35-31-1 ATS (53%). Over the last eight playoff seasons, that record climbs to 20-11-1 ATS (65%). Be sure to consider YPR this weekend.

·  Teams that have demonstrated a greater ability to produce big plays through the air, or those averaging more Pass Yards per Attempt, are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, the most definitive statistical edge we have uncovered in the playoffs thus far. However, the last five years have seen a dramatic decline to 6-14 ATS (30%) so be careful when applying PYA.

·  Yards per Play used to be an effective predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat had gone 36-20-2 ATS (64%) prior to mid ‘07. Like the PYA stat though, recent results have turned dramatically, with only one of the last 10 Divisional Round teams with an edge in YPP having won & covered their game.

·  Yards per Point also went through a stretch of great success as a predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) overall since ’93. Like our other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late, as evidenced by the 14-14 ATS (50%) record since ’03.

·  Turnover Differential has meant very little in terms of predicting Divisional Round games since ’93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 30-36-2 ATS (45%). Little has changed of late either, with edge teams owning a 10-14 ATS (42%) record over the six seasons.

To this point, we have uncovered very little of anything other than Yards Per Rush that has been consistent enough to provide a winning Divisional Round strategy using offensive statistics. Let’s move over to the defensive side of the ball.

·  Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 29-37-2 (44%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93, so we aren’t off to a good start in our research. In fact, it gets even worse more recently, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in the L14.

·  Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 27-22-1 ATS (55%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96, a record much better than those with a PPG allowed edge. Recent findings show that teams with this edge are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons.

·  A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense has proven very important in Divisional Round games, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 41-24-2 ATS (63%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a phenomenal 22-6 ATS (79%) record. You might want to note that Indianapolis finished 19th in the NFL against the rush this season while San Diego was 24th & New Orleans was 27th.

·  Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are only 28-38-2 ATS (42%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, and 9-15 ATS (38%) over the last six seasons. Clearly, run stopping defenses have wreaked bigger havoc in the Divisional Round.

·  When you combine the Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed, you get Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Divisional Round in this stat are 35-31-2 ATS (53%) since ’93, but only 6-10 ATS (38%) over the last four seasons.

·  Defensive Yards per Point has turned out to be an effective & consistent defensive predictor in Divisional Round, if used as a FADE, as teams with an edge in this stat are 25-41-2 ATS (38%) since ’93. The trend has held the same percentage over the last four seasons, 6-10 ATS.

It’s evident from all of the above trends that the Divisional games have proven quite unpredictable if using nothing more than stats, especially when you compare it to the Wildcard Round.

Since rushing stats have proven our best weapon, what about the scenario where a team has the edge in both Offensive and Defensive Yards per Rush in a Divisional matchup? Well, these teams are 20-9 ATS (69%) since ’93, and 17-0 ATS (100%) over the last 11 seasons. I think we just found our GOLDEN NUGGET!!!

Man, I love doing this! I am always astounded about the things we can find. Just think, in the Wildcard Round, it was most important to have shown the ability to score points and throw the football. Here, in the Divisional Round, the run game takes precedence. Any guesses on what it will be next week? We WILL find out when we’re back to look at Conference Championship Sunday! Good luck this weekend.

Top College Hoops Best Bets
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

College basketball has evolved into conference play and a number of teams have gaudy records, some are of value and others not. In the sports wagering game of cat and mouse, spread wins and losses supersede conventional win/loss numbers, as team’s heavy one way or the other draw the scrutiny of those setting the lines. Let’s face it, understanding information is the key to winning consistently, along with an instinct to spot a winner based on various factors. Here we will look at a number of the top winning college basketball teams covering the spread and if they are a good or bad bet going deeper into the season.

St. Mary’s (14-2, 13-2 ATS)

The Gaels lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad, including the brilliant Paddy Mills and figured to finish no better than third place in what could a down year for the West Coast Conference. It was fairly easy to make the argument that St. Mary’s was burned by the NCAA after being snubbed with 28-7 record, primarily because Mills suffered hand injury and the team faltered because of that down the stretch. Players like center Omar Samhan vowed to make sure that wouldn’t happen again and has kept his word thus far. It would be incorrect to call the Gaels schedule imposing; nevertheless, they’ve faced teams that at least deserved to have a spread in virtually every contest. St. Mary’s is a patient offensive team, shooting almost 50 percent and works the ball around for good shoots in coach Randy Bennett’s offense. Defensively, the Gaels are adequate in holding opponents to around 42 percent shooting and as usual are lights out at tiny McKeon Pavilion (3,500 capacity) with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS record. St. Mary’s notoriety mostly comes from playing Gonzaga; oddsmakers won’t pay a great deal of attention to them as long as they don’t enter the Top 25 or make a lot of headlines. Should be able to secure a fair price on the Gaels in the coming weeks.

Texas (15-0, 8-3 ATS)

Coach Rick Barnes Longhorns are very deserving of high ranking and for a club this high on the charts, have covered an abnormal amount of games. In trying to understand why, Texas has faced an exceptional non-conference slate, which has presented less inflated numbers that would correlate with top-notch status. The Longhorns have proven they have the skill and depth to override opposing teams. This has been particularly true against teams that compete with Texas for 25-30 minutes, then players that could start for most of the Horns opponents, overwhelm them down the stretch as these bench players and fresher starters are able to play their game against worn out foe. Texas is 8-3 ATS as favorite, but is not lock they appear. Coach Barnes has to get after his guys from time to time, since they are so skilled on offense; they kept caught up in making buckets instead of defending the basket. Most of the time they will be able to overcome this and cover inflated numbers, but as was the case in the Arkansas road conflict, they surrendered 48 first half points and never was close to covering the 14-point spread due to lack of defensive intensity.

Kansas State (13-2, 7-3 ATS)

The Manhattan ‘Cats were supposed to be good, but not this good! Though Bob Huggins stay was just one season, he made an indelible mark on the program and coach Frank Martin continued right where Huggins left off. Kansas State’s depth allows Martin to sit any player who is not going all out on the floor. Martin wants his players like a Motorhead CD, aggressive on offense, defense and crashing the boards. The Wildcats are blessed with an exceptional backcourt. Shooting guard Jacob Pullen can scorch the nylon and really heat up beyond the arc. Denis Clemente pushes the ball with his blazing speed for easy layups or passes for spot up three’s by teammates. K-State lacks that one consistent scorer in the paint, nonetheless junior Curtis Kelly and Luis Colon have played better this season. Kansas State will see inflated numbers at Bramlage Coliseum, however are still worth consideration if opponent is weak defensively (44 percent shooting percentage or higher). On the road, taking the purple clad ‘Cats as underdogs is good wager, as long as the opposing team has an average or less backcourt, which Clemente and Pullen could run roughshod on. This team feeds on emotion and is 11-2 and 6-2 ATS after a victory.

Oregon State (7-8, 8-2 ATS)

At the beginning of 2010, the general appearance is coach Craig Robinson, might be having a better first quarter than is brother in law (The President) in the court of public opinion. The Oregon State head man might be carrying a small container of Tums in sport jacket, as his Beavers have played nine of 15 games decided by eight or fewer points. Robinson, in his second year, is working on upgrading the talent in Corvallis, but until then has decided that playing defense is the best way for his team to have a chance to win. It’s nothing fancy for Orange and Black, focusing on playing positional defense, not getting beat off the bounce and helping out when necessary. Despite a 2-4 SU record as an underdog, Oregon State has hung tough, losing by just 1.2 points per game in that role and sporting a busy 6-0 ATS record. With the Pac-10 languishing this season, the Beavers catching points looks like an opportune wager.

Villanova (14-1, 10-4 ATS)

College basketball is a guard-oriented sport, since it is much easier to find players that can be dynamic at 6’3 or less than it is to find a 6’10 big man. Coach Jay Wright has always understood this and recruited accordingly. That doesn’t mean Wright wants a one-trick pony in backcourt, his players have to be versatile performers offensively and defensively and willing to track down rebounds. Villanova’s quick getaway has been fueled by persistent defensive pressure, keeping foes right around 40 percent shooting and Scottie Reynolds directs an offense NASCAR champion Jimmy Johnson would be proud, having many gears, including sticking it on the floor. Studying the patterns of the Wildcats against the spread the last several years, oddsmakers have had a real beat on Nova. They seldom cover by more than four or five points, which is coach Wright’s style of play. The Wildcats are 12-1 and 9-4 ATS as chalk and have been superb when playing with three or more days off with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS mark. Big East play tends to grind up most teams, keeping them around .500 against the number. For the short term, as long as Villanova continues to play great defense, they have to be considered a play on team as a favorite or dog.

Northern Iowa (14-1, 11-3 ATS)

Subtract the head-scratching loss to DePaul in the second game of the season; the Panthers are on track for a truly special campaign. Northern Iowa returned nine players that accounted for 91.7 percent of its scoring from team that tied for first in the Missouri Valley and won the conference tournament to earn NCAA berth. The Panthers aren’t going to mesmerize opponents with blazing speed; however they will carve them up a like turkey with the conference’s best inside duo, accurate outside shooters and a team that doesn’t make mistakes. 7’1, 290 pound Jordan Eglseder is turning into dominant beast, as he and Adam Koch control the paint. The perimeter players feature a cast of sharp shooters, with the Panthers hovering around 40 percent all season from three-point range. With all the veterans on this team, they are unaffected by outside surroundings and just goes about their business of winning basketball games. This team started the year with three goals, win the Valley regular reason and postseason tournament to earn higher seed and get to at least the Sweet 16. Would not recommend betting against them.

Baltimore at New England Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The Baltimore Ravens, off a pair of playoffs wins a year ago, head into New England believing they can at least match that total. The Ravens are not concerned about New England being 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS) in home playoff games during the Tom Brady era. They view this as opportunity because of advantages they see for themselves.

Start with Baltimore was fifth in rushing at 137.9 yards per game and the Patriots were a pedestrian 23^rd in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have both gotten hot and New England has been forced to “junk-up” its defense to increase productivity in recent weeks with mixed results.

Though the Ravens secondary finished eighth in passing defense, their cornerbacks are beatable. Fortunately for them, they will have one less weapon to deal with in Wes Welker, done for the season. That means the Baltimore can focus their attention on Randy Moss. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in road playoff games.

New England is in the postseason again after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years, though not the team of prior seasons. The Patriots were perfect at Gillette Stadium this season (5-3 ATS), which included a hard-fought 27-21 win in Week 4 over Baltimore.

With Welker out, the underneath role falls to rookie Julian Edelman to be the slot receiver. Though Edelman has been productive when called upon this season, he lacks the skill and savvy of Welker. Having played quarterback in college, he doesn’t have the experience to find seams and read coverage’s as well. Expect the New England game plan to include screens to running backs and more throws to the tight ends to make up for Welker’s loss. The Pats are 23-5 ATS playing against a marginal winning team (51 to 60 win percentage).

Bill Belicheck’s defense gave up 144 yards rushing to Houston last week, but run stoppers Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren had the week off and should be refresher. In the last five weeks, the Patriots have been generating a better pass rush off the edges; particularly from LB Tully Banta-Cain. Derrick Burgess had a good game last week for the Pats; expect to see more of him since Joe Flacco is not always quick to feel the pressure from the perimeter.

Betonline.com has the Brady Bunch as three-point favorites, with total of 43. The Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS following a SU loss and are is 17-6 UNDER in playoff games. Achieving a semblance of offensive balance will be crucial and quick hitting plays running off-tackle.

Baltimore is 21-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game and the offensive line has been mowing down the opposition to the tune of 211.7 yards the last month. If they move the pile on New England, they can exploit an untrustworthy New England secondary. With journeyman Leigh Bodden their best cover guy, even an ordinary pass-catching contingent like the Ravens can do damage.

The Birds are 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of seven points or less.

Green Bay at Arizona Betting Preview

By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The Packers had not faced Arizona at any time in over three seasons, now they will be making a third trip to the desert in just over four months and a second in two weeks. Green Bay assaulted Arizona 33-7 in Week 17, as both teams came into that game with very different mindsets.

The Cardinals played with little ambition and the game plan had about as much flavor as diet dressing. Coach Ken Whisenhunt was down this road a season ago and feels he has the right pulse on his more veteran team and decided to take his lumps and live to fight a bigger battle in the week ahead.

Coach Mike McCarthy has a younger team, playing its best football of the season and chose a more aggressive stance, having his club play with more vibe. Green Bay took what Arizona was willing to give and built up 33-0 lead before calling off the dogs.

In the last wild card game of the weekend, we’ll see what approach was correct.

This will be the only matchup of the wild card team having the better record and the Packers are torrid, having won seven of eight (7-0-1 ATS). Green Bay’s running game offers more than enough to keep any defense honest and the blocking downfield has been spectacular, with Ryan Grant ripping off long touchdown runs despite slightly above average speed. The Pack is 20-7-1 ATS on the road the last several seasons.

Aaron Rodgers is seeing the field well, finding second and third receivers without holding onto the ball, which was his penchant earlier. Finding the long ball with home run hitter Greg Jennings opened up the field and TE Jermichael Finley is proving to be a tough matchup for every opponent.

In the second half of the year, DC Dom Capers 3-4 defense gelled. The players started to play instinctively instead of reacting and the blitzing of linebackers Nick Barnett and Clay Matthews really paid dividends. Charles Woodson proved to be the best all-around cornerback in football and will receive plenty of support for Defensive Player of the Year, for a team that is 8-0 ATS as a visitor when their defense forces two turnovers since 2007.

For Arizona it starts with attitude, can they once again just “turn the switch” and play great football. Over the last two years in the most meaningful games they have been able do so. On defense, they will have to super aggressive, forcing Rodgers to get rid of the ball quicker than he wants and play more press coverage in the secondary, since all four starters have good hands and have played corner at some point in their careers. DT Darnell Dockett has to control the middle of the defense like he is capable of doing so, making Packers one dimensional. The Cards are 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons.

On offense, Kurt Warner has to protect the ball and be accurate. Establish Larry Fitzgerald first in the passing game and find the mismatches against a thinned out Green Bay secondary like Pittsburgh did when they threw for over 500 yards. At some point in the first quarter, get the running game cranked up, to keep the linebackers honest and play their positions, instead of heading up field all the time. The Cards are 13-4 ATS against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers a contest.

Arizona opened as 2.5-point home favorites at BetUS.com and has been bet down to one, with total at 47. They are 18-6 ATS in home games off a home loss and 18-5 OVER after scoring 15 or less points. The Packers are playing with supreme confidence and are 12-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less and 15-2 OVER with four or more consecutive wins against the spread.

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

·         The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

·         The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out.

Real Life or Football

·         Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

·         Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)

·         Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)

·         In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)

·         In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note these same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)

·         Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)

·         Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)

·         Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)

·         The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.

·         The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.

·         The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

·         Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.

·         Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

·         Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.

·          Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.

·         Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.

·         Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)

·         The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

·         The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

·         Cincinnati at New York Jets is about what happens with New England. If the Patriots win, it’s an exhibition game for the Bengals, if not it’s up to the coaches to figure out what a three seed is worth to them. The Flyboys have to go all out or go home.

·         The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

·         Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

David Stern is the boss of the NBA and like many sports czars, has taken a hard line on sporting wagering on team sports. He was particularly affronted by former referee Tim Donaghy revelations of betting on games he worked, which was in strict violation of the rules of conduct in the league.

At that point, print and television commentators coast to coast suggested the NBA was about to go the way of the Arena Football League, because its public trust had been comprised. And while many wondered what would happen to the NBA, something unexpected occurred that Stern’s minions and most other supposed “know it all’s” didn’t see coming, nothing.

All the presumed outrage, people thinking the NBA was going to become the WWE with predetermined winners (enough people believed that already), however once they started playing basketball, it was business as usual and television ratings have gone up, with attendance hurt by the recession, not by wagering allegations.

Stern recently sat down with Sports Illustrated’s Ian Thomsen and betting on the NBA was brought up during the interview.

During this conversation, it was clear Stern has changed his views on people betting on the NBA for a variety of reasons.

With many countries worldwide accepting wagers on team or individual sports, Stern was asked about potential for scandals.

"We used [the Donaghy revelations] as an opportunity to get better, to coordinate with law enforcement and go through a variety of processes that I don't necessarily want to detail publicly, but you are on ready alert," he said. "And we're mindful of what can happen, because we're more-than-interested bystanders in the European football scandal. Two-hundred [soccer] games are being looked at by law enforcement across the continent. It's fascinating to see what's happening. And we're mindful of the cricket [2007 World Cup match-fixing] issues, of the football referees in Germany -- there's a lot going on."

He then spoke as someone with a greater understanding of the marketplace and where our country is in general. "The betting issues are actually going to become more intense as states in the U.S. and governments in the world decide that the answers to all of their monetary shortfalls are the tax that is gambling."

While Stern stopped short of saying he would approve of such activity openly at this time, when asked if it were in the best interests of the league to seek legalization of sports wagering in the NBA, Thomsen observed a shift in body language of someone who was going to make a point that could later be used against him, but believed his own words.

"It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question, 'No,' " he said."But I think that that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread -- even legally."

In looking at the landscape, where most states have lotteries, Indian casinos and Delaware presently above revenue expectations just allowing NFL parlays, Stern has absorbed all this information and reformulated his thought process.

“Considering the fact that so many state governments -- probably between 40 and 50 -- don't consider it immoral, I don't think that anyone [else] should," Stern went on. "It may be a little immoral, because it really is a tax on the poor, the lotteries. But having said that, it's now a matter of national policy: Gambling is good.

"So we have morphed considerably in our corporate view where we say, Look, Las Vegas is not evil. Las Vegas is a vacation and destination resort, and they have sports gambling and, in fact, there's a federal statute that gives them a monopoly of types [on sports betting]. And we actually supported that statute back in '92."

While Stern has often been considered stubborn and bullish, the whole Donaghy experience has brought out a different side of Stern, one more enlightened and not as close-minded in his beliefs. He sees the popularity of the NFL and has widely varied figures on something related to his sport, basketball, with March Madness, which fills Vegas hotels annually for the opening weekend, and also seemingly everyone filling out a pool sheets and making a bet amongst friends. He understands the revenue potential.

“Gambling, however it may have moved closer to the line [of becoming acceptable], is still viewed on the threat side," he said. "Although we understand fully why, buried within that threat there may be a huge opportunity as well."

Of course Stern will have opposition, but will also have those on side like the Maloof brothers who own the Sacramento Kings and the Palms Hotel and Casino just off the Vegas Strip.

Originally when the Palms was opened, they were allowed to have a sportsbook, but not able to take action on NBA games. The Maloof’s later stated their case after the city hosted the NBA All-Star game, wanting to take wagering action on all NBA games, except those involving the Kings and it was approved.

Stern’s latest comments were music the Sacramento owners’ ears.

“I’m thrilled to hear him say that,” Joe Maloof told Yahoo! Sports on Monday. “I think it does two things: First, it legitimizes gambling. It regulates it. That’s the most important thing. It’s clean. It’s honest. It’s fair.

“And then it creates a tremendous excitement for your product. People react differently when they have a bet on a game versus when they don’t. This is going to bring in great interest. If it’s regulated properly, this can be a tremendous revenue source for the league.”

Nationally, there is too much opposition from groups that want a sanitized world more reminiscent of the 1950’s and early 60’s. However, as individual states look to hang on to government programs and continue to see shortfalls, sports gambling will eventually be pursued more actively as another revenue source that will be taxed and monitored and be enjoyed more openly, as sports leagues like the NBA admit the world won’t end if people bet on sports.

Separate articles from Sports Illustrated.com and Yahoo.com provided the quotes for this piece.

College Basketball Top Televised Tilts
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

With only one contest on the collegiate gridiron Saturday, sports bettor’s interest start to wander more specifically over to the hardwood. This is the first full weekend of televised college basketball and a number of stirring contests are on tap for watching and wagering enjoyment. If you happen to Christmas shopping or lucky enough to get to stay home while somebody else fights the crowds, take the time to get in the mood for college hoops and enjoy.

Saturday, Dec.12

Kentucky at Indiana  12:00ET CBS

Coach John Calipari’s club finishes a challenging non-conference slate the last eight days taking on Indiana. Kentucky (9-0, 3-4 ATS) has defeated North Carolina and Connecticut this past week, as his young players get ready for SEC play. Coach Cal has also shown his stern side as head coach, recently reprimanding his most prized pupil John Wall. As you might expect, Wall has only heard people praising his basketball abilities since his youth and seemed genuinely shocked when Calipari expressed his opinion about his play. That sends a very positive message to vets like Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson and lets the other talented first year players know who is in charge. Big Blue will have to play defense against Indiana, since they are 2-7 ATS off a spread cover.

The Indiana Hoosiers (4-4 SU & ATS) are more talented than a season ago, however they are far from a finished product for coach Tom Crean. With a squad filled with young players, Indiana fans will have to take the good with the bad. Guard Maurice Creek and Christian Watford have made the steadiest contributions and the coach is thrilled about the effort Verdell Jonnes III is giving, working hard on the glass and transfer Jeremiah Rivers is adding stability in the backcourt. The Hoosiers are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS vs. Kentucky.

Ohio State at Butler   12:00E   ESPN

The Buckeyes (7-1, 6-2 ATS) got the clinching victory over Florida State 77-64 for the Big Ten in their first ever win against the ACC and moves on to face another rugged opponent, this time on the road. Ohio State’s forward Evan Turner has been a force (now injured) and Jon Diebler is emerging from early season shooting slump and burying three’s again. Coach Thad Matta’s club lacks size and 6’8 Dallas Lauderdale is doing his best to be a factor in the post. Despite tremendous start, sophomore William Buford has been lost and he could be important against balanced Butler squad. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

It’s not that the Bulldogs (6-3, 3-6 ATS) are playing poorly; they just weren’t playing Butler basketball. Coach Brad Stevens team may have played in the top early season tourney in Anaheim, but were sloppy in ball-handling and took far too many poor shoots in finishing with 1-2 record. In the loss against Georgetown, they shot 31.4 percent and had no answers for Hoyas center Greg Monroe. What Butler has to do is get back to basics, making the extra pass for the layup or the wide open three-ball shot. This is another big opportunity for the Bulldogs to regain stature, especially at home, if the knock off Ohio State. Butler is 20-11 ATS in non-conference games under coach Stevens.

LaSalle vs Kansas   2:00E  ESPNU

Top ranked Kansas (8-0, 3-2 ATS) has not entered any tournaments the last couple of years, preferring to played selected opponents at home, on the road or at neutral sites. Everyone understood the Jayhawks talent deserved a top ranking; however teams that were supposed to push them don’t give the appearance they will. UCLA offered little resistance and upcoming games against Michigan and California might not provide the competition needed for Kansas before Big 12 play. Swingman Xavier Henry is proving to be the perfect compliment as freshman that could keep Kansas at or near the top of the ranking all season. With its high octane offense (90.4 points per game), the Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS when they score 81 or more points.

Though the crowd will be pro-Kansas in Kansas City, at least it’s not a true home game for the Jayhawks, which has to make LaSalle (6-2,2-3 ATS) feel a bit better. The Explorers do have talented individuals like guard Rodney Green, its top scorer. Kimmani Barrett and Jerrell Williams both have the ability to fill up the basket and freshman big man Aaric Murray will find out how much progress he’s made going up against Cole Aldrich. LaSalle has to maintain poise and if they do, the Explorers could improve on 19-9 ATS record as underdogs of 10 or more.

Georgetown vs Washington  2:00E   FSN

This is a solid opening matchup for the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim. Georgetown (7-0, 2-1 ATS) has a trio of players that can matchup with any in the country. With Greg Monroe patrolling the paint, Austin Freeman making things happen from the wing and Chris Wright handling the rock, the Hoyas can ball. Where the view turns to 20-50 vision is when one of the trio has an off-night. Julian Vaughn has the ability to be reliable scorer and rebounder and sophomore Jason Clark has the length and quickness to be lock-down defender. The bench, what bench? G-Town is 11-19 ATS in all lined games over the last two seasons.

Coach Lorenzo Romar’s U-Dub squad is acquiring some good battle scars. Washington (6-1, 1-6 ATS) has been pushed by Wright State, Montana and lost to Texas Tech in OT, while the starters have learned to play together and a feisty bench has added a spark. Leading scorer Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are going to be at the forefront, nonetheless junior Venoy Overton and long-range shooting reserve Elston Turner add greater flexibility for team that is 37-20 ATS away from home vs. foe outscoring opponent by eight points or more a game.

Marquette at Wisconsin  5:00E  ESPN2

Shhh, quiet, if you listen intently, you can still here a couple dozen Badgers fans partying from the upset win over Duke. As per usual, nothing much was expected from Wisconsin (6-2, 3-3 ATS), however few work the chalkboard better than coach Bo Ryan. Guard Trevon Hughes is the leader of Badger attack and he is complimented by a group of players that don’t make mistakes and play defense that always leads opposing player into anther defender. This conflict is HUGE deal in the Badger State and Wisky is 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Marquette (7-2, 3-2 ATS) was supposed to disappear, after losing “triplets” from last season, whom all finished in the Top 10 in scoring in Golden Eagles history. But senior forward Lazar Hayward is having none of that talk. Marquette will have size issues all year, but the amount of quickness will catch more than one unassuming competitor off-guard. Darius Johnson-Odom has a nice upside and swingman Jimmy Butler finds ways to score. Coach Buzz Williams team isn’t going to win the Big East, nevertheless, they will have say. The Golden Eagles are 2-4 SU in Madison, yet have four covers. The UNDER is 6-1 in last seven encounters.

Virginia Tech at Penn State   7:00E  ESPN2

No its not another Big Ten/ACC Challenge contest, this was just part of the regular scheduling between these universities. Virginia Tech (7-1, 2-4 ATS) has already claimed one Big Ten victim, Iowa, and seeks another on the road. The Hokies tend to be erratic offensively, as there are few answers beyond guard Malcolm Delaney and forward Jeff Allen. It is tantamount neither gets in foul trouble, which occurred in loss to Temple. Watch the line closely on this matchup, with Virginia Tech 3-16 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.

The Basketball Prospectus website has come with something called the “Degree of DeChellis”. Named after the Penn State coach, it factors an element that the Nittany Lions continually out-play --per possession performance. The basic principle of this exercise is Penn State (6-3, 4-4 ATS), under DeChellis, continually outperforms year after year expectations and common game situations. He has them playing competitively, despite being out-gunned most nights. He’s not on anybody’s top coaches list, but he works with what he has as good or better than any coach. DeChellis’ teams are 6-0 ATS playing a team with a winnng record.

Purdue at Alabama   9:00E   ESPN2

Purdue (8-0, 5-3 ATS) is enjoying its highest ranking in 13 years in the Top 25 and they are starting to look like are going to be the team to beat in the Big Ten. In winning the Paradise Jam and handling Wake Forest, they have shown diversity in style of play. The offense has a vast array of ways to score inside or outside and the defense can play lockdown opposing team’s offensive sets. One difference over the last couple years that has manifested itself, the Boilermakers have another gear, a Usain Bolt if you will, with E’Twaun Moore at the controls. Purdue is 6-1 ATS on the road after three or more home games.

By most accounts of those that follow SEC basketball, Alabama (6-2, 4-2 ATS) has underachieved the last several seasons, held hostage by the health of point guard Ronald Steele and former coach Mark Gottfried’s apparent inability to get the most out of team. New coach Anthony Grant is already turning a few heads with the Crimson Tide’s smarter play. He’s leaning on veteran guards like Mikhail Torrance and Charvez Davis, especially with Andrew Steele out with stress fracture. This could be early signature win Grant is looking for and the Tide is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog or pick since 1997.

Sunday, Dec.13

Cincinnati at Xavier  7:00E  ESPNU

There are special rivalries all across the college basketball landscape, but when the teams are in the same city and the players facing one another in playground battles most of the year, this takes the emotion to the next level. This Queen City battle is bitter and often very physical, which suits Cincinnati (6-1, 3-2 ATS) just fine. Guard Deonta Vaughn is the unquestioned leader of this team. Yancy Gates, Rashad Bishop, Lance Stephenson, and Cashmere Wright are a stellar supporting cast. This team could be a much larger factor in the Big East than previously given credit for, especially if the lauded frosh Stephenson blossoms. The Bearcats are respectable 22-15 ATS as underdogs.

Xavier basketball has been on a high plane the last few years, averaging better than 27 wins per season, and former assistant Chris Mack is entrusted with keeping the program rolling. Guard Jordan Crawford and center Jason Love are the leading scorers for the Musketeers (5-3, 4-3 ATS), however beyond this twosome; points are iffy game in and game out. In losses to Baylor, Marquette and Kansas State, Xavier shot below 38 percent. The Musketeers have won eight of last 12 encounters (7-4-1 ATS), including five of last six at home (3-3 ATS).

The old story about defenses winning championships has held up to the test of time. On weekly basis this can also be the case, when defensive failures lead to losses. Two teams Sunday that have set high standards this decade were victims to such occurrences.

The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four in a row and are not getting much done defensively. The numbers still show the Steelers are among the best in football, but against the Oakland Raiders Sunday, they looked more like the Cleveland Browns.

The Steelers held THREE fourth quarter leads against the Raiders and couldn’t hold any of them. The new sensational pitch and catch tandem of Bruce Gradkowski and Louis Murphy was unstoppable. When you consider Pittsburgh was a 15-point favorite and Oakland had three total touchdowns in the last quarter in 11 previous games this season, it’s shocking how far the Steelers have fallen since destroying Denver on Nov. 9.

For all the Bill Belichick apologists that felt he made the right move in going for first down at Indianapolis, subsequent losses to New Orleans and Miami have suddenly made the AFC East race more compelling with a month to go. The New England defense isn’t holding up, so maybe Belichick was right and followed his beliefs. This past weekend, Chad Henne went toe to toe with Tom Brady and his team emerged victorious. The other former Michigan quarterback threw for 335 yards against Patriots secondary.

With inferior talent on the last line of defense, New England has been lit up officially for 316, 367 and 328 yards passing in three of the four weeks. The trade of DE Richard Seymour is looking worse all the time, as the Pats have no pass rush. About the only good news is the remaining schedule includes Carolina, @ Buffalo, Jacksonville and @Houston. They should be favored in each and have excellent chance to be paper champs at 11-5, but certainly not feared.

The Dallas Cowboys December woes have been well documented, but what kind of a game plan was that on Sunday in the Meadowlands? Tony Romo was asked to throw 55 times against the Giants. If the Cowboys were trailing 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and were not having much luck catching up, that figure would at least have some credibility. However that wasn’t the case, at all. Dallas trailed by just seven points midway thru the fourth quarter, which was their largest deficit to that point in the game. Having one of the best running games in the NFL, they ran a ridiculous 23 times and played like they were the underdog instead of the favorite. The Dallas coaches get a D- for first Cowboys effort in December with San Diego up next.

If you have ever had your hand slammed by a door, that was similar to the pain Cincinnati backers felt when Detroit back-doored the 13-point favored Bengals with 96 seconds to play.

On Monday and Tuesday, the Tennessee Titans looked like a good bet at Indianapolis, catching seven points. Late Tuesday or Wednesday day depending on the sportsbook, the Titans went to +6.5. By Friday, most of the public money was on Tennessee and according to Las Vegas sources, a good chunk of sharp action was also backing Jeff Fisher’s club. A quick perusal of some forums over the weekend that have handicappers picks listed, showed the Titans as a 25-1 choice, easily the highest I’d seen all season, this going against an unbeaten team playing at home. The rest is history as the Colts covered rather easily.

There are points in a game where it makes sense to go for touchdowns as opposed to field goals and unquestionably having the advantage of looking back offers far greater clarity than living in the moment. Twice coach Fisher went for first down and or touchdowns and failed trying to lower a 24-10 deficit. Looking back, if he would have kicked very makeable field goals from short distances, Tennessee would have trailed just 24-16, still having time to make up the eight points.

Pop the Falcons out of the microwave, they are done.

It was a wild Sunday for bettors, as 10 underdogs covered the spread, which included six of those pooches winning outright. Friends on the Strip tell me it was easily the most profitable NFL weekend of the year, which was made all that much sweeter by Arizona’s easy upset victory over Minnesota.

New England loss wiped out a vast number of parlays and New Orleans decision to kick a field goal in overtime after taking it all the way down to one yard line destroyed six-point parlay cards. As a Las Vegas source told me, “The bean counters will be sending out rare positive emails to their least favorite aspect of the casino.”

By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

Green Bay and Baltimore share wildcard aspirations in their respective conferences. The teams will go head-to-head at Lambeau Field on Monday night to wrap up the Week 13 slate, each hoping it turns out to be lucky. The Packers are 7-4 and facing a two-game road trip following this one, placing a premium on gaining a victory here.

Green Bay (6-4-1 ATS) has come a long way since a loss to previously winless Tampa Bay in Week 8 dropped them to .500. Their convincing 34-12 victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day was their third in a row and improved their chances in a wild-card race sure to come down to the wire as usual. They will come into this contest 24-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers tied a career-high with three touchdown passes and comes into Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field against Baltimore in a serious groove with 881yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions since the defeat to the Buccaneers. It should also be noted he’s been doing a better job in getting rid of the ball instead of holding onto it and has been sacked only three times in the last two games working behind a much-maligned offensive line that gave up 41 sacks through nine contests. He’s thrown an interception in only three games all year, and his 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 104.9 rating are among the best in the NFL.

The re-signing of tackle Mark Tauscher has solidified the offensive line and the combination of understanding Dom Capers defense better and facing a series of weak offenses has led to Green Bay having No.1 total defense coming into Week 13 and they are 14-4 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Cornerback Charles Woodson is seemingly only getting better instead of older and his team is 11-1 ATS at the frozen tundra vs. squads outscoring opponents by six or more points per game after eight contests have been played during the season.

For Baltimore (6-5 SU & ATS), this is their third prime-time game in four weeks. The last time they played on Monday their defense pitched a shutout at lowly Cleveland but the offense struggled to put points on the board. One of their two touchdowns in the 16-point victory was a pick six by Dawan Landry. Last Sunday night’s overtime win over Pittsburgh put them a game over .500, but they’ve produced just 58 points over the past month. The Ravens have been consistent money-makers with 21-10 ATS record in last 31 contests.

This week could ultimately determine if Baltimore returns to the playoffs following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game last season. After the Packers only one of its last four opponents has a winning record (Steelers) and the other three (Lions, Bears and Raiders) are floundering.

The Ravens need to get back to stretching defenses, and with pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris missing from Green Bay’s lineup it’ll be up to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn second-year quarterback Joe Flacco loose. Flacco completed only two touchdown passes in five November games and also had three sub-200-yard efforts. The Ravens own a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark vs. non-conference foes under John Harbaugh and their next three games are against NFC North opponents.

Betonline.com has Green Bay as three-point favorites, with total of 43, but they are just 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) on Monday night under Mike McCarthy. The Packers will have had what accounts for almost a bye week before this one, with it being 11 days since dumping Detroit on Turkey Day and teams like the Pack are 18-7-1 OVER in next outing if they beat a division team on a Thursday. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in last 10 road underdog assignments and 10-2 OVER as a visitor catching seven points or less.

Baltimore covers if they run the ball and control the clock. Their running attack is 14^th in the league and they will take on the Packers defense which is fourth against the run. That means finding which of their three backs is the most effective vs. the Pack and go at them. Ravens’ coaches have to expect Green Bay will send pressure, as the offensive line did a poor job last week against Pittsburgh. They will have to clean this up to give Flacco time to work the ball downfield. Baltimore has to bring heavy pressure on Rodgers and force him to make quick decisions or have him revert to holding the ball, keeping the Ravens in positive down and distance situations that help pull the upset.

Green Bay covers if they stone the Birds running game and Woodson eliminates Derrick Mason. That leaves Flacco with few options and makes blitz packages more effective. Teams that have beaten Baltimore have chosen one method to start the game, either heavy run or heavy pass. Whichever way McCarthy chooses, stick with it to test for success and eventually take deep shots against ordinary secondary. If Baltimore decides to bring defensive pressure, utilize two tight end sets giving Rodgers a down the field threat for having to make quick throw.

Monday Night System – Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover last two games. (21-10 ATS)

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.

Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.

This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.

Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and haven’t been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.

 Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC

The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of the 17 games; however it has been a battle most of the time as 8-8-1 against the spread record shows. For many college football fans, especially in the South, this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2009. However, it is just another step closer for the winner, moving to BCS title game and this team will likely be a favorite against whomever they play. Since 1996, the total has gone on runs of two or more and the UNDER has been the play the last two seasons.

Past SEC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U

12/6/08 –FLORIDA (-10, 54) 31, ALABAMA 20 –FAV/FAV/UNDER

12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER

12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER

12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER

12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER

12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER

12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER

12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER

12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER

12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12

The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Longhorns coach John Mackovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyder’s K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent three of the four losses by the favored team in 13 tries. The favorite is 8-4-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 31.7, with the closest three years ago, as Oklahoma won 21-7 over Nebraska. Eight of the 13 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points.  The South Division has been by far the better of the two Big 12 divisions and that is shown by 5-0 SU and ATS dominance the last five years in this encounter. The UNDER has been the play five of the last seven contests.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U

12/6/08 – OKLAHOMA (-16.5, 78.5) 62, MISSOURI 21 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER

12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER

12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER

12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER

12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER

12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined the fun and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 12 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. This will be Central Michigan’s third appearance in the last four years in this game. This sets up another meeting with Ohio U., whom they whipped in 2006. Being the underdog is the better position in this contest as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite only 6-5 SU in lined MAC matchups for the crown. Following the same line of thinking, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 7-2-1 ATS (Ohio U, this season). The dog has covered a double digit spread in all four instances.

Past MAC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U

12/5/08 – BUFFALO 42, BALL STATE (-15, 62.5) 24 - DOG / DOG / OVER

12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER

12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER

12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER

11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER

12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER

12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER

12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER

12/5/97 - TOLEDO 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC has engaged in the fray in the last four years and it does not elicit much support on a local or national level. The ACC has had severe attendance problems; not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville or Tampa and would probably be better suited in Charlotte. The ACC championship has seen the favored teams lose outright three of four times, opening up more conjecture for this season. This is the second straight year the game features a rematch, with Georgia Tech having stopped Clemson 30-27 as five-point home favorites. After several years of not living up to expectations, the Tigers have finally made it to the title tilt. This is the Yellow Jackets second appearance in ACC finale and rest assured it will be a much higher scoring affair then their last visit.

Past ACC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U

12/6/08 – VIRGINIA TECH 30, BOSTON COLLEGE (-1, 38) 12 - DOG / DOG / OVER

12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER

12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA

Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered the first three conflicts, until East Carolina pulled the big surprise. The Pirates are back to defend their title, this time at home. Though the sampling is small, it is not a surprise this defensively-challenged conference is the only one that has not had a total under 50. This leads to negative angles for both teams in this battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.

In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-3 SU, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the 10 affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U

12/6/08 – EAST CAROLINA 27, TULSA (-12, 66) 24- DOG /DOG / UNDER

12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER

12/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER

By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

It’s the last big weekend of college football already, where did the time go? Among the more intriguing matchups is Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, with Cowboys trying to make Sooners a .500 club. Florida wants to prove they are still the top team in the country and in the Sunshine State. Georgia and Georgia Tech has a lot of history and Yellow Jackets want to keeping winning, playing for ACC title next. The way it’s been portrayed, no matter the outcome, a certain South Bend football coach might be fired during the game and told to find his own transportation back home. Lines courtesy of Sportbet.com.

Oklahoma State (+8, 49) at Oklahoma  12:30E  FSN

All of the preseason discussion about Oklahoma State centered around last year’s fabulous offense that averaged over 40 points per game and had their three stars returning. As it turns out, Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-4-1 ATS) comes into the annual battle with Oklahoma with a good defensive club. Other then surrendering 45 points to Houston and 41 to Texas, only Texas A&M and Colorado have been able to cross the 24-point barrier against the Cowboys D. Among the leaders is cornerback Perrish Cox, who leads the nation in passes defended. Though hardly dominant, the defensive line has maintained steady pressure on opposing signal callers all year. The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

It’s hard to imagine a better five loss team talent-wise over the last 20 years than Oklahoma (6-5, 4-6-1 ATS). The Sooners resume doesn’t look as fancy as previous year’s, however not many top programs could overcome the losses the Sooners have faced. Coach Bob Stoops has resisted temptation to let the situation overwhelm the squad, instead asking those replacements to play their best and believing healthy players have to raise their level of play to help compensate. With QB Landry Jones receiving so much more experience than anticipated, the Sooners are playing towards the future as well and sophomore WR Ryan Broyles is looking like a star in the making. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS of a SU loss.

The “Bedlam Game” battle still has Oklahoma leading all-time with 79-16-7 and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. The Cowboys will look to improve on 6-13-1 ATS November road record.

Florida State (+24.5, 56) at Florida  3:30E CBS

For well over a decade, this was one of the most anticipated games of the season, with an array of future NFL players and blinding speed from each team. With the arrival of Urban Meyer and the decline in talent in Tallahassee, this has become a one-sided series. The Gators have won five in a row and three of the last four by scores of 27, 32, and 30 respectively. Sadly, at least for Florida State fans, this showdown has become nothing more than tuneup for the Gators (11-0, 5-5 ATS) before SEC title game. The Florida defense has been this team’s bell-cow even if the fawning continues over Tim Tebow. They turn off the opponent’s running game like a spigot, rush the passer like a video game at faster speed and defend the pass like they are a receiver’s shadow. Florida is 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game in the regular season.

As retiring defense coordinator Mickey Andrews said after Wake Forest upset, “If we don’t make mistakes, we’re a pretty good football team.” Football can be that simple and Florida State (6-5, 3-8 ATS) knows it. The issue all year has been lack of discipline in carrying out assignments. Be it defensive linemen needing to secure a corner or an offensive tackle grabbing opposing player for holding penalty 30 yards away from the ball. This Florida team doesn’t have the look of the three previous national champions and if the Seminoles can play mistake free for three quarters, who knows what can happen in last 15 minutes. Florida State is 10-4-2 ATS as an underdog, but 8-21-1 against the spread off a SU victory.

Check the spread, the SU winner in this Sunshine State showdown is 25-2-1 ATS.

Georgia (+7.5, 58) at Georgia Tech  8:00E ABC/GP

Conference championship contests certainly put a different twist on rivalry games if they are held the week prior. For the second time in four years, Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS) has advanced to ACC title tilt and you have to wonder about mindset for this matchup. In the big picture, earning a league championship and BCS berth is far more important than defeating a in-state rival, yet fans have to live with one another should their team lose. Georgia Tech players have been conditioned to want to take down the bigger state school, leaving a bit of an emotional quandary. The Yellow Jackets are 1-9 ATS at home after scoring 35 or more points.

The Bulldogs are also in quandary, how to you stop the Georgia Tech option offense? Since losing at Miami, the Yellow Jackets have scored 39 points per game and are second in the country in rushing offense. The Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) defense has been anything but memorable in 2009 and will have to find ways to slow the Jackets down, while playing mistake-free on offense. Signal caller Joe Cox has played with more confidence in last few outings and running back Caleb King has found more room to maneuver. Coach Mark Richt’s team can go full out and has revenge angle having lost last year 45-42 as touchdown favorites. The Bulldogs have had plenty of bite with 20-6 ATS record on the road in non-conference games over the last 17 years.

This Peach State confrontation is more old-school with the visitor 9-2 against the spread, which includes Georgia 5-0 ATS at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

Notre Dame (+10, 63) at Stanford  8:00E  ABC/GP

If the NCAA had a football tournament (can’t we pretend at least), one team nobody would want to face is Stanford. The Cardinal (7-4 SU & ATS) is an offensive juggernaut right now and has given no indication anyone will stop them. What makes Stanford so incredibly difficult to defend is balance. Running back Toby Gerhart is the most physical runner in the Pac-10, maybe in the country and quarterback Andrew Luck is efficient passer with ample time to throw. Pull out all the preseason publications you can find and good luck trying to find the Stanford offensive ranked among the elite. However, ask the previous 11 teams which have played the Cardinal what was the best offensive line they faced, well the answer is clear. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 10-1 ATS at home the last two years.

Charley Weis is a large man and the shadow he is casting over the Notre Dame (6-5, 2-8-1 ATS) football program is a 1000 times larger. Since the Navy upset, the story isn’t about the football team, it’s about Weis and if he will come back for 2010 or not as the Fighting Irish coach. For a team with incredible strengths and equally persistent weaknesses, the last thing they need is a loss of focus which has been inevitable since Middies loss. Be it not for QB Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate, Golden Domers would have been in outrage back in early October. Defensive coordinator John Tenuta is known from his blitzing schemes every stop along the way; however it hasn’t worked in South Bend, lacking the players. The Irish are 1-6 ATS after their last home game.

Stanford is 3-11 and 4-10 ATS vs Notre Dame since 1993.

Let’s stop all this talk about changing out Detroit and Dallas on Thanksgiving to allow other teams to play. The Lions have been bad for years, so what, we still watch at least a good portion of the game and would it kill you to talk to a family member if the game isn’t a classic. We have three games to choose from during the course of the day, let’s just enjoy what we have.

·         If both teams played at home last week, the home underdog is 2-9 ATS and 9-2 OVER. (Detroit and Denver)

·         If both teams played at home last week, the home favorite is 10-4-1 ATS. (Dallas)

·         If both teams were favorites in last contest, the home team 7-12-2 ATS (Detroit)

·         If the home team was favored last week and the visitor was an underdog, the home team is 11-0 ATS. (Dallas)

·         If the home team was an underdog in last game and the visiting team was a favorite, the home club is 1-8 ATS and 5-1 UNDER. (Denver)

·         If the home town team is off a SU loss and the visitor is off a SU win, the road team is 7-1 ATS and 8-3 UNDER. (New York Giants)

·         If the road team is off two wins, they are 10-3 ATS. (Green Bay)

·         Road teams that were underdogs last week are 5-22 ATS. (Oakland)

·         Home favorites of seven or more 7-1 UNDER. (Dallas)

·         Home teams that were favored by six or more points in last contest are 12-3-1 ATS. (Dallas)

·         Home teams of a SU win are 9-4-1 ATS and 22-13-1 OVER (Detroit and Dallas)

·         Home teams off a SU loss are 4-8 ATS. (Denver)

·         Home teams after scoring 28 or more points are 8-1 ATS and 12-4-1 OVER. (Detroit)

·         In the last six years, home favorites are 18-8-1 ATS, including 8-1 ATS if favored by a touchdown or more. (Dallas)

·         Away favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2004. (Green Bay and New York Giants)

Additional angles to think about.

·         Take the OVER on turkey consumption.

·         Play the OVER on one person having too much to drink.

·         Take the OVER on at least 20 percent of those in attendance taking a nap.

·         Play the OVER on potatoes consumed.

·         Take the OVER on eyes rolled, snickers and laughter.

·         Take the UNDER on cranberries eaten.

·         Take the OVER on pumpkin pie and desserts.

Horns and Aggies in Turkey Day Texas Tussle

This has been an unusual season for Texas, who has gone about their business without a great deal of fanfare and is two games away from playing for the national championship. In many ways, the Longhorns (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) season has paralleled quarterback Colt McCoy’s.

Last season, Big 12 field generals were putting up gaudy figures and scoreboards moved like the numbers on the New York Stock Exchange. However this season, McCoy hasn’t always been sharp, Texas has had their share of slow starts, yet when you take away the Oklahoma defensive struggle, they have outscored teams 45-13, awfully impressive. Coach Mack Brown’s team is 5-1 ATS in last six contests as Big 12 road chalk.

The presumption is coach Mike Sherman is wise enough not to bring out the white helmets again, compared to traditional maroon, since Texas A&M is 0-2, losing by 83 points this season. For Aggies fans, it has been both feet in the stirrups and holding the reins tight, with losses of 65-10 and 62-14, mixed in with wins like 56-19 over UAB and 52-30 upset of Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Texas A&M (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) figures to get leveled by the Longhorns, however two years ago they won in College Station 38-30 as touchdown underdogs and in 2005, gave a game effort before falling 40-29 as 28-point underdogs to then # 2 Texas. Off last week’s 38-3 blowout of Baylor, it’s easy to understand that prosperity seldom takes comfort in Aggie-land, with Texas A&M 2-10 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.

The Aggies have covered four of last five at home vs. the Horns and have to have quarterback Jerrod Johnson supply a big game. Texas A&M has shown capacity to play well and if pressured, Johnson can test the Texas secondary with his big arm, which could make things interesting. Coach Sherman’s team averages 268.8 yards passing and Texas has surrendered 240 yards or more passing four times this season (2-1-1 ATS), which adds intrigue if nothing else. The Aggies are 18-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13.

Betonline.com has Texas as 21-point favorites with total of 62.5. The Longhorns should stop the Aggies running game, being first in the nation at 50.1 yards per game allowed. The Horns are 9-2 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last game. (53 total net rushing yards allowed in last two contests)  McCoy should have no problems negotiating 100^th ranked Texas A&M defense and they are 24-9 ATS off two or more consecutive Overs.

ESPN will have this Thanksgiving treat at 8:00 Eastern, with Texas is 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS vs. rival A&M, however the home team is 8-2-1 ATS.

Betting on College Football Best Rivalries
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

 

The fabric of college football is wrapped in its traditions and many of its colorful rivalries that make college football such a great sport. This upcoming week, many of the more historic matchups will take place yet again this holiday weekend starting Thanksgiving night.

 

On Thursday night, No. 3 Texas and Texas A&M will hookup for their annual battle. These archrivals have always had a “big brother, little brother” relationship, with the Aggies trying to outdo Texas. Years ago these two schools set up a program that awarded points to every athletic competition, be it men’s or women’s sports, which were totaled at the end of the year and a winner was announced. Texas has won this competition every year. The home team is 5-6, but 8-2-1 against the spread. Texas is still in the BCS hunt and will be looking to chew up the Aggies like a leftover turkey leg.

 

On Friday afternoon, there is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days. The losers have only "next year" to cling to because the scores of other games during the season really do not matter.

 

The game is known as the Iron Bowl because its birthplace is in Birmingham, which was built around huge iron ore deposits in the Alabama hill country. What is truly unusual about this historic rivalry is it was not played for 41 years from 1907-1948. The universities had reached an impasse in 1907, with unfair officiating being one of the charges, and neither side could come to an agreement, thus no game was played in that time period. The 1950’s saw Auburn’s Shug Jordan dominate the Crimson Tide, until Paul “Bear” Bryant returned and eventually the series turned to Alabama’s favor. Bryant teams went on to crush the Tigers for years before losing in his final game in the series. Shortly thereafter, “The Bear” announced his retirement and two months later he passed away. The names like Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Bo Jackson and Shaun Alexander are all part of the lore along with the infamous kicker Van Kiffen, who made what became known as “The Kick” in 1985. Kiffen drilled a 52-yard field goal with just seconds left to give Alabama a 25-23 triumph.

 

No.2 Alabama can’t afford a misstep if it expects to keep national championship hopes alive. The Crimson Tide lead the all-time series 39-33-1 and will face a vengeful Auburn squad who was embarrassed 36-0 last season, the most lop-sided margin in the series since 1962. This will be Tigers coach Gene Chizik’s first real involvement in this rivalry, rest assured he’s heard about its importance since his hiring. Auburn can shatter most of the dreams of Alabama if they could win for the seventh time (4-3 ATS) in the last eight years. The home team however is a dismal 5-9 against the spread.

 

The action really picks up on Saturday with the Egg Bowl rivalry, as