Looking Back to Help You Look Forward
By Jim Kruger
3-30-08
This is the final week of college basketball for the 2007-08 season. This also signals a period of depression forthcoming for me. The college basketball season just never seems to last long enough for me. As compared to baseball, the NFL, and professional basketball, those seasons seem to go on long enough, or in the case of bases, perhaps a little too long. Until there is some sort of playoff system in college football, that season leaves me wanting for more just like craving for the Olive Garden waiter to bring our table more breadsticks.
To satisfy my “Jonesing” for college hoops, I will pull out my old tapes of great games such as the 1988 Kansas win over Billy Tubb’s Oklahoma squad in the championship game, the Duke-Kentucky match with Christian Laettner hitting the miraculous buzzer shot, a recorded documentary on the exciting Pistol Pete Maravich, and will also start preparing for next season. I will open 2007-08 Blue Ribbon book and Sporting News College Basketball Annual and start making notes on every team, returning starters, anticipated new coaches, etc.
What changes will happen next year in college hoops? Well, perhaps most importantly is the moving back of the three-point line one foot. What will be the effect of this change of rules? What teams will this affect the most?
I will look for teams that have a high percentage of three point shots attempted versus two point shots, the schools that get a large percentage of their points from behind the arc. The basic assumption is that overall the shooting percentages will go down for the long-range bombers. Will offenses overall be setting up a foot further back and thus opening up the court a little more? With a more wide-open court and increased spacing, logic would say quicker teams will have more of an advantage. The importance of a team’s athleticism will go up a bit.
Schools like Michigan State or UCLA who take very few three-point shots proportionately will not be affected much offensively. Will teams that pressure the perimeter, like UCLA, be affected more defensively?
What teams have point guards returning? What was their personal assist to turnover ratio? Naturally, I make the list of the returning starters, percentage of scoring and rebounding returning, and percentage of minutes played is returning? I break down the returnees by class. It is time to analyze the incoming freshman and transfer class. The JUCO players coming in can all contain high accolades of scoring leaders, All-Conference, and JUCO All-American. It is important to separate the wheat from the chaff and realize that an All-Conference player from Butler County JUCO in Kansas is playing competition at a much higher level than the scoring leader from Connecticut’s Martha Stewart Junior College.
The sheer enormity of the landscape of college hoops teams that have a point spread next to their games every season requires a serious sports bettor to prepare himself way in advance to the upcoming season. And, there is no better time to start than when the previous season is still fresh on your mind.
We have to have a base to work from and it is always best to start at a high level. Let’s take a look at how the conferences did this season in college hoops.
The Atlantic Coast Conference had the best RPI rating again this year with the PAC-10 coming in second with last-year’s runner-up Southeastern Conference sliding to fourth place. The Big 12 finished third. The Big East once again finished fifth rounding out the top 5. The Big Ten fell to sixth after finishing fourth the previous season.
What conferences improved the most this year and who slipped some?
The biggest improvement in my mind falls to the Atlantic 10. Not only did Xavier make it to the Elite 8, but they had 3 teams in the NCAA Tournament and numerous more in the NIT and CBI. The A-10 moved up in conference RPI ratings from tenth place to seventh. Their non-conference went from 54.1% to 64.3% with 21 more wins and 17 fewer losses. Massachusetts is still alive in the NIT semi-finals at the time of this article. Dayton beat a mighty Pittsburgh team handily as well as Louisville. Charlotte had a nice ten-point win over Clemson.
How about the Metro Atlantic? They moved up six slots in conference RPI rankings, improved their non-con record from 40.4% to 45.2%, and had the largest improvement in RPI by almost 30 basis points. They are also playing tougher competition as the MAAC improved their overall strength of schedule more than any other conference. The Siena Saints were the darling of the league as they beat Stanford by 12 points, Boise State on the road in bracket-buster weekends by 23, and downed Vanderbilt by 21 in the first round of the NCAA Tourney.
The Sun Belt Conference with their marquis team, Western Kentucky, making it to the Sweet 16 also showed great improvement. A movement of 6 notches up the conference RPI belt along with a non-conference improvement of a net of 24 games going from a poor 38.6% to 48.0%.
The Big 12 moved up to the third best overall conference RPI ranking from last year’s seventh place. Their non-conference RPI rating was second best. Kansas into the Final Four along with Texas in the Elite 8 led the way and as of this writing had a nice 10-5 SU record in the Big Dance. Texas had nice non-conference wins over UCLA on the road and also versus the Volunteers of Tennessee. Oklahoma also contributed some nice wins over West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arkansas.
A conference that took a step back was the Missouri Valley. After previous years with great success in the NCAA Tournament with Southern Illinois, Bradley, and Wichita State making it to the Sweet 16, the MVC fell from the sixth highest-rated conference to the 8th best. Their non-conference record fell from an impressive 71.2% to 63.6% as they had a net loss of 17 games.
However, the biggest loser of them all was the Western Athletic Conference. The WAC somehow slid 11 spots down to finish as the 20th best league, behind the Patriot League and the Southland Conference. They had the biggest drop in non-conference winning percentage going from 57.1% to 46.3%.
Looking at RPI and non-conference records is important, but so is looking at point-spread records for the year.
The Atlantic 10 improved greatly as stated above, but they also did well in non-conference games against the spread, 82-60, 57.7%. It stood out that A-10 schools were 11-2 ATS as a home dog before conference play began.
The ACC, the #1 conference was 76-63 ATS, 54.7%, a reasonable mark considering many of the games probably had an inflated point-spread.
The #2 rated league, the Pac-10, performed better away from home, 55.6% winners against the spread, but had a slight losing year at 47.4% at home in non-conference action. One thing that did stand out was when a PAC-10 team was a non-con favorite, the game went Under the total 36.7% of the time with a 50-29-2 mark.
The Big 12 was 65-54 in non-league action, 54.6%, but really had a favorite-dog dichotomy covering 65.1% of their games as favorites but only 39.1% as underdogs.
If you felt that the Southeastern Conference was down a bit this year, the numbers would support you. The SEC only covered 47.6% of their non-conference games this year. As an underdog they were only 42.9% successful ATS and even a worse 28.6% SU record.
Number 5, the Big East, was 76-86, 46.9% They did poorly at home covering only 41.7% of the time, 43-60.
The Big 10 also slid in non-conference action as well as RPI winning only 46.4% against the number and only 40% is they were on the road in non-con games.
The Southern Conference with this year’s upstart Davidson covered the point spread 56.8% of the time out of league and even more impressive, 63.5% of the time, 33-19, when on the road. Those away games also went Over the total 60% of the time.
The Missouri Valley had Drake as one of the best stories of the year, but in non-conference play the MVC covered only 37.5% of their games when put in as an underdog.
How about the best conference to bet against in the preseason? The Western Athletic
Conference is the hands down winner with a sad 31-58-2 ATS record, 34.4% It was a shade worse when they were underdogs, covering only 30.6% of their games.
And finally, in using the excellent www.statfox.com website, we find that the college basketball team that won the most units against the spread this year came from the horrific WAC, New Mexico State, with a stellar 24-8 ATS record, +15.2 units for the year. When you think about it a second, it definitely makes sense.
The Final Weeks of NBA Action
By Jim Kruger
3-16-08
It is turning into Spring around the country. And with the new season, we can expect to see all of the following:
- In preparation of Spring Break, college students flocking to tanning salons, many salons with catchy names such as Annie's Fanny Tanning, Tanfastic Voyage, Jamaican-Me-Tan, and my favorite, which is owned by a guy with the last name of Nutt: Nutt ‘N Butt Tans.
- Distinct signs of flora and fauna in your region such as the first robin showing off its red breast after returning home or the beautiful monarch butterfly heading back home on its lengthy annual migration. Jonquils popping their heads out from the ground in anticipation of another glorious round of yellow blooms. (of course some of us have bad memories when we were a kid cutting the lawn for the first time ever and mowing right over “the tall thick weeds” not realizing they were your mother’s favorite flower)
- Catchers and pitchers showing up in spring training camps for another long season of baseball or perhaps some additional Senate hearings.
- The re-opening of the Dairy Queen in my grandparent’s small home town of King City, MO.
- And, naturally, the tanking of games by certain NBA teams.
The end of the regular season of the NBA can be full of excitement, boredom, and what some people would consider to be atrocities. Of course, if you ask the NBA czar, David Stern, about what we can expect for this year’s final few weeks of the “fan-tastic” NBA, you will only hear praise and not even the hint of teams not playing their best, losing games on purpose, or perhaps teams “shelving players” in order to make their squads less competitive.
There are actually a few reasons an NBA team would tank a game(s). The most obvious one is in order to get the best position possible for the upcoming NBA Lottery. As most fans realize, the lottery is to determine the draft slots of the worse teams. However the worst team does not always have the first pick in the draft. Therefore, there is a significant incentive to perform poorly, once the team’s chances of making the playoffs have ended.
The lottery probabilities are not equal either as the first team receives 25% of the ping pong balls to be drawn out, the second team has 19.9% and the third team 15.6%, on down the line. This makes the reverse progress of a team’s record all the more profitable in the long run.
Being careful about the dynamics of the end of the season can bring you profits or be quite costly. Last year the Golden State Warriors were looking to end a thirteen-year drought of not making it to the playoffs. In their next-to-last game of the year, the Dallas Mavericks traveled to the Bay to play the Warriors, who coincidentally stood a very good chance to be Dallas’s first round opponent in the playoffs.
It was my belief that the Mavs would want to teach the upstart Warriors just how good the team was with the best record in the NBA last year, Dallas, and would try to gain the psychological advantage by beating them soundly. Subsequently, I bet on the Mavericks.
Much to my surprise, and the linesmaker’s as well, Dallas decided not to play their starters at all in order to give them a day of rest and I lost a sizable wager. Golden State smoked the Mavs by 29 points as five NBA players with a total of 33 starts that year were down by 24 points at halftime. I did feel somewhat vindicated when Dallas lost their opening round playoff series to Golden State, the #8 seed, 4 games to 2.
In order to get to make the playoffs, Golden State had to win their final game of the year at Portland. It wasn’t an overly difficult task as Portland was “resting” a number of their players including Brandon Roy and Zack Randolph resulting in a 22-point Warrior win.
The LA Clippers would have been the 8th seed if Golden State won and they had beaten New Orleans in a game that started 30 minutes after the Warriors match against Portland. The Clips found out in the fourth quarter Portland had won ending their own playoff hopes and LA subsequently lost a fourth-quarter lead and the game.
Since there is absolutely no punishment against tanking games, and the commissioner refuses to admit it happens, so why not lose on purpose if it helps your team in the future? Boston coach, Doc Rivers, who was an NBA player himself, has said that tanking games in pursuit of ping-pong balls is epidemic and has been for more than a decade.
How do you, as a sports bettor, benefit, or at least avoid catastrophe, the last few weeks of the NBA season when wagering on games? First, take more heed when looking at the injury report. Normally, when you see a key player is listed as probable or even as a “game-time decision”, the chances are he will be playing that night. However, late in the season, players that used to play through injuries are more likely going to sit for the game.
Next, follow the bottom standings, the teams who have a chance to make the lottery. Last year Memphis was legitimately in pursuit of the leagues worst record. Once the Grizzlies clinched this dubious position, after a six-game losing streak, they won their final three games including wins over the Spurs and Nuggets.
A similar situation last year happened with Milwaukee as the Bucks closed the season 3-13. However, they were 2-2 in the last four games after their lottery position was guaranteed.
Watch for coaches who in the fourth quarter of a close game are not playing their starters and instead have the “project stiff” out there along with multiple bench players trying to “pull out the victory”. Heck, sometimes coaches don’t wait until the fourth quarter to effectively “lose a game,” A great example was Boston's 92-84 loss to Charlotte on March 21, 2007. The Celtics, an 8 1/2-point home favorite, led by 15 points at halftime. But coach Doc Rivers left all five of his starters on the bench as his team blew the lead and the game.
Also, watch for coaches who late in the season shake up the starters or playing rotation significantly. Excuses are usually made that they want to get a good look at players who are going to be future contributors to the team. A paraphrase heard frequently is “we want to see what they can do in a game-time environment”. Right….
Be cognizant of certain situations which may almost demand that a team loses a certain game. One of my largest wagers last year was made against Minnesota when I learned they would have to give up a first-round draft choice to the Los Angeles Clippers from a prior trade two years earlier if they did not finish in the NBA drafter lottery. It came down to the last game of the year for Minny. In order to ensure they did not give that draft choice away, the T’Wolves HAD to lose their last game.
What was fascinating was that Minnesota was only behind by 3 points at halftime. Not too worry. The Timberwolves continuously bailed out of the lane in the second half giving the opposition a free path to the basket for an easy dunk. Minnesota was outscored by 19 points in the second half in a game that saw such “stars”as Bracey Wright and Justin Reed getting ample playing time for Minnesota.
Also, it is not just very bad teams that might lose a game on purpose. Some front offices might have their team tank a game in order to help another team reach the playoffs.
Also, some teams might not want to finish in a certain playoff slot if that means they will be matched up in the playoffs against a team they don’t do as well against. It behooves them to drop down a slot to face a different team.
A great betting strategy that I used frequently last year was watching for teams that were tanking games but who were competitive in the first half of a game. I would bet against the “tanking team” for the second half as frequently they collapsed after intermission.
I tried to identify teams who were deliberately tanking by keeping track of their ATS margins.
Naturally, the oddsmaker is watching for evidence of teams purposely losing games and will adjust the line accordingly. However, last year the three teams with the worse record in March and April combined for a 19-56 straight-up record but still had a pitiful 22-51-2 record against the spread. Tanking teams also don’t play very good defense and the Over can be a successful betting strategy as evidenced by our “bottom three” having their late season games go Over 58.7% of the time.
It is not too early to watch for teams ready and willing to lose and other situations that can benefit your bankroll, no matter what David Stern might say.
Profitable NBA Fun Facts!
By Jim Kruger
2-10-08
I have always been enamored with trivia, odd facts, and unusual details. When the “Trivial Pursuit” board game came out I was in heaven just reading the question and answer cards from it. For some odd reason, I have a propensity to remember the unimportant, inconsequential, details that really have no value at all in life.
Remembering that Bob Gibson, former St. Louis Cardinal pitcher, had a microscopic ERA of 1.12 in 1968 never helped me determine when to buy corn or sell pork bellies short when I was a stock and commodities broker. When I was single, I can’t recall one girl who was impressed I knew all of the fifty states’ capitals. I never even got to “second base” when I rattled off the capitals of the Central and South American countries. Nobody has ever paid me a dime that I know in an episode of the “Beverly Hillbillies”, when the Clampetts opened up their restaurant in Beverly Hills they named it the Happy Gizzard. Maybe if I could get on a television show like “Jeopardy” or “One Versus One Hundred” all of this useless knowledge accumulated in my gray matter would finally reap benefits for me. At least I could meet Alex Trebek, one of my childhood heroes.
Since those fun facts don’t make us any money, I thought I would try and find some NBA fun facts that we could use to help us make some cash. Maybe these bits of information will be quirky enough you will be able to remember them just as I remember Barney Fife’s landlady was Mrs. Mendlebright.
Kobe Bryant is a true superstar. He has been accused of being a ball hog and only caring about his own stats. What type of results do the Lakers have in the next game after Kobe scores 35 or more points? I didn’t include playoff games as teams are more focused during the playoffs.
Your first fun fact to remember is to play the Over in Laker games after Kobe has scored 35 points in the previous game. He has achieved that mark 132 times according to my database and the Over is 80-52 in those games, a sweet 60.6% winner. Now I’m going to make the fun fact more difficult to remember but more profitable. If the Lakers won the game in which Kobe filled the basket, the Over in their next contest improves to 63.9%, 53-30. And, if the game after Kobe’s scoring outburst is also against a Western Conference opponent, your Over ticket cashes 68.3% of the time, 41-19! That rings my cash register enough for me to pay attention to Kobe’s scoring output on a daily basis.
Kobe can go on scoring streaks and in fact has scored 35 or more points in two consecutive games 60 times in his career so far. If we use our previous most favorable qualifiers that the next game is against a Western Conference team and the Lakers won both of the previous two games, our Over now has a record of 20-7, 74.1%. One note of interest though, apparently after two straight games of Kobe lighting up the scoreboard, an attitude comes over the Lakers in game three as they cover the point spread only 37% of the time, 10-17. Oh, just in case you are curious if Kobe goes for 35+ three games in a row, if the Lakers are playing at home in that fourth game the Over is 14-5.
Our next fun fact is one that Ed Meyer, a good friend of mine and a fellow handicapper, likes to talk about. Why this trend happens is difficult to understand. When a team is on a road trip with consecutive games in Boston and New York, it doesn’t matter which city is first, if they win the first game, unbelievable they almost always never win straight-up nor cover the point spread in the second game. Since 1996, the team who won in the first game either at Boston or New York, has a straight-up record in the second game of 3-23 and an ATS mark of 2-24. In my mind, that is one of the most astounding fun facts in any sport.
I have listed below a number of quick hitters, fun facts with a title that maybe will help you remember them.
* Bullied in Detroit:
We went to Detroit and got beat and now we are playing at home without a day off and we are an underdog: You win only 14.3% of the time and cover the point spread in only 19% of those games.
* A Well-Rested Richard Hamilton at home:
The Pistons are home off of a home win in which Richard Hamilton played less than 30 minutes and Detroit is now playing a game as a home favorite: The Under happens 86.7% of the time.
* Don’t invite the Spurs to our house:
You just got done playing San Antonio at home and now you are at home again. Over the past two seasons you are only 12-25 ATS and a very sad 3-10 against the number if you actually beat the Spurs.
* Tired Suns on the road:
When Phoenix is playing back-to-back games on the road with no rest between them and they are a short favorite of five points or less playing a team with a day of rest, the Suns are a sad 3-16 ATS.
* I love the New York nightlife:
Road teams after playing the Knicks in New York over the past seven years cover the point spread only 36.1% of the time in their next game if they are playing without any rest.
* Spurs Under Thunder:
I have two very strong trends on the Spurs Under the total with identical records. The Under is 18-2 when the Spurs are rested at home and are a 5 to 10 point favorite and they are playing a team coming off a home game without any rest. Also at 18-2 Under is when the Spurs are at home as a 5 to 10 point favorite playing a rested opponent and San Antonio’s next game is out of town the very next day.
* Pass me the ball!
If a team is off of a loss where they had 25 or more assists in the game and their opponent had 15 or fewer assists, the pass-happy team is 20-4 ATS in their next game since 2003!
* If it’s Tuesday…
And you are a home dog of five points or more with a day of rest playing a team without any rest, you are 17-3 ATS! The Spurs visiting Seattle on January 29th was the most recent victim of this trend.
* Sunday is Under and Monday is Over:
These season the Under is 50-28, 64.1%, on Sundays and the Over is 45-30, 60%, on Mondays.
Maybe these NBA Fun Facts will become popular enough that one day in the future when I turn Jeopardy on, I can hear a contestant say, “What is the against the spread coverage rate in a conference game for the Lakers after Kobe Bryant has scored 35 points in two straight games?”
Time to Fade?
By Jim Kruger
1-13-08
On Tuesdays, I meet with a group of professional sports bettors and handicappers at a restaurant on the west side of Las Vegas to discuss and analyze the upcoming games. We have our own private room to give us freedom to discuss at will and show emotion when we have differing opinions. While I have been handicapping sporting events for many years, besides getting a good lunch, going to the Tuesday Group continues to enhance my handicapping abilities. I have learned to have confidence in my plays from Big Richie. The Fez has caused me to sharpen my math skills. Watching Teddy C. eloquently take the other side and be a contrarian, albeit sometimes just to aggravate us, reminds me to always consider all options. If you want to learn how to bet totals, you listen to Charlie J. One of the participants, who prefers to go by the moniker of the “Ace of Spades”, (something to due with the guys who collect taxes, I think) has brought up more interesting angles than I ever thought was possible.
Make no bones about it, these guys are sharp. However, a few years ago when favorites were covering at a record pace in the NFL, there were some bankrolls getting smaller as most of the guys look to play underdogs first. As the season continued until the latter weeks and favorites were still covering at an amazing clip, the prevailing talk on Tuesdays was that it couldn’t continue. The dogs were certainly going to be barking soon and the squares were going to pay! Our confidence increased in week 11 when dogs went 9-7. “Things were returning to normal,” the dog lovers said. However, dog-lovers were crushed quickly with two consecutive weeks of favorites going 12-4 ATS. During the 2005 NFL season, some of us modified how we handicapped and bet games, some of us didn’t.
This NBA season is reminiscent of the 2005 NFL season. First, let me confess. I am not doing well in the NBA this year, .500 at best. To qualify myself, I have done very well in the past handicapping the NBA. In an effort to uncover my shortcomings in handicapping the NBA this year, I discovered an epiphany. Currently, there are seven teams covering the point spread at a rate above 60%. Is that unusual? To quote a show I grew up on, Rowan and Martin’s Laugh-In, “you bet your bippy”.
Beginning with the 2002 campaign, there have been a TOTAL of four instances when a team has finished with a 60% or better ATS winning percentage. And, what is even more amazing, two of those four times a team barely made it to that level with an exact 60% ATS winning percentage. But this year there are seven teams at this magical level? How can this be?
What has allowed seven teams to be hitting at 60% ATS and above is the fact four teams this season are only winning at a 40% or worst rate against the spread. And just like the number of high percentage winning teams, this is quite abnormal. It has only happened a total of four times the prior five seasons that a team failed to cover more than 40% of their games! However, in this unique 2007-08 campaign, there are four teams at 40% or worse against the spread.
So what does this mean to the average Moe, Larry, or Curly? Well, first it explains why most cab drivers in Boston and Detroit are cashing a lot of tickets. And, just like the fall of 2005, the normal “sharp guy” is not doing well. Betting against your double-digit favorites has not been profitable. It means you should be very wary about betting on Detroit, Boston, Portland, Washington, Orlando, Los Angeles Lakers, or New Orleans, the seven teams at or above the 60% level. If history is to repeat itself, there is no way seven teams will finish above 60% ATS. To quote the Fez, “this is when the donkeys get slaughtered”.
Since it has been difficult to pick winners, how about just picking losers? Well, so far you have Chicago at the bottom of the list only covering 35% of their games. The other below 40% dregs of the world are Miami, Minnesota, and New York.
Of the seven teams at 60% or better, I would be more concerned betting on the high-profile teams, Boston, Detroit, and the Lakers. The linesmaker realizes these are currently “public teams” and will shade the line accordingly. What would have been a good bet at minus five now is a wager of question at minus seven. For the uneducated, a two-point difference in the points you are laying or receiving in the NBA is massive. A few wagers a year at such a shaded line can make the difference between a profitable and a losing season.
A quick method to determine if a team is overvalued is to see how often they cover the point spread when they win. Is it any surprise the bottom four teams in order in this test are Phoenix, Cleveland, Dallas, and San Antonio?
Also, just because a team wins a good proportion of their games outright does not mean they are a good wager as evidenced by the fact that of the four teams that covered the spread at a 60% clip over the previous five seasons, two of those had losing records for the season.
However, it appears the “time to fade” has already started with Boston failing to cover four of their past six games including three where they were double-digit favorites at the time this article was written. Detroit is fading themselves as they have failed to cover the spread in four of their previous five contests and actually have lost three of those straight up. Two of the Pistons’ losses were to Boston and Dallas, but the last loss was to the lowly New York Knicks by 24 points.
Orlando is coming back down to earth and has failed to cover in five of their last seven games. In fact, after a superb beginning ATS run of 17-3, the Magic are just 8-11 against the number.
Portland has been the shocker of the year. The Trailblazers started the season 5-12 straight-up and you could already hear the voices from the Northwest saying “wait till next year when we have Greg Oden”, their first-round draft choice who had a season-ending injury come up in summer league play. An amazing 17-2 streak has since happened after their loss in San Antonio by 21 points on December 2.
Since avoiding the 60% teams seems to be wise, does that mean biting the bullet and betting on the below 40% squads is going to be profitable?
Chicago looked like they were turning the corner around the end of the year when they covered three straight. Since then, the Bulls have failed to cash a ticket in four of their last five games. The Knicks have covered 3 of their past six, which is enough to keep the electricity on in the sportsbooks. Miami has been in a tailspin going 2-14 straight up and against the spread. Minnesota doesn’t inspire confidence in covering only one of their last nine games.
Only time will tell what will transpire from a betting perspective in the most amazing NBA year I can recall,
