Post All-Star Break
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com
Baseball Betting 2nd Half Outlook- NL
The National League is glad not to have anything to do with the American League until October, when the stakes will be higher. As second half of the year starts today, we’ll examine key stats, scheduling situations of all the teams in contention in the National League. With most teams having about 68 games to play, give or take a few, we’ll see how oddsmakers feel about these teams chances to win division titles and head to World Series.
These are heady times in Chicago this summer, for the first time in 31 years, both major league baseball teams are in first place as the last part of the schedule starts after the break. The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the senior circuit for the vast majority of the season. They have been consistently one of the best bets in baseball at +12.2 units, and an incredible +19 at Wrigley Field with 37-12 mark. Chicago lead the NL in runs scored, on-base percentage and walks and are 3rd in runs allowed, accounting for largest run differential in the sport at +106. With Alfonso Soriano coming back and Rich Harden solidify starters; the only real pieces left are the return to form of Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood being a touch more consistent out of the back end of pen. The Cubs will attempt to open a gap between them and Brewers and Cardinals in August, with 21 home games. If this fails, could be dicey September with only nine contests at Friendly Confines. Cubs are 1-3 to win division and odds on choice at 3-2 to make World Series at Bookmaker.com. (Cubs fans and backers, drink lots of fluids)
Milwaukee will give it go, being able to have three excellent and two pretty serviceable starting pitchers over every five-game period. In order to catch the Cubs or be the wide card team, the 7th ranked scoring offense has to climb into the top five, as 11th ranked bullpen does not figure to get much better unless starters can regularly go 7+ innings. Brewers are 5-2 to comeback and win NL Central and 5-1 to return to Series for the first time since Hall-of-Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor were patrolling old County Stadium. Milwaukee’s schedule is balanced and includes 10 games with division leading Chicago. The only downside of remaining games is only a dozen versus the NL West.
One of the great mysteries of the first half of the season is how the St. Louis Cardinals have 53-43 record. Based on talent and ability, more than half the teams in the NL have better one-two starting pitcher combo than Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals. The bullpen has 13-20 record and has blown 20 saves; along with 4.29 ERA, which is 13th in the National League. The staff strikes out the fewest batters in the league, just on this information alone, it’s impossible to believe St. Louis would have the best road record in the NL at 27-22, +10.5 units. Yet the offense is second to Cubs in OBP, draws the 2nd most walks and is steady as it goes. The Cards are 5-1 to snag division crown and open with eight home games, including four with the Brew Crew. By August 14, everyone will have a good indication about the Tony LaRussa’s club, playing mostly contenders until that time.
Philadelphia is 2nd in runs scored, has the best bullpen in baseball, and yet can’t create any separation in NL East due to unstable starting pitching. It would seem the Phillies will try to add a starter by July 31 trade deadline, using Brett Myers as the bait for a team needing bullpen help. The offense has been more dissonant than expected and will face immediate test, at Florida and at New York, to start 12 of 15 road contests. Starting August 5, the Phillies play 15 of 22 at home. Philadelphia is just a shade behind Mets to win division crown at 11-10 and 9-2 to earn right to play in Fall Classic.
The Mets are a challenge to figure. After not being to get out of their own shadow, they close 9-0 to have the same number of losses as front-running Philly. Skeptics claim beating San Francisco and Colorado at home is not overly impressive; nevertheless, shutting them out four times in six encounters is an attention grabber. The offense has been tastier than a Nathan’s all-beef, scoring 6.2 runs per game in July. The schedule does not feature any long or short home or road trips and the furthest destination will be one time zone away at Houston. If the starting pitchers can deliver 6+ innings regularly, the warts the bullpen has can be masked pretty well. If the bats continue to grind, the Mets should win the East and 7-2 wager to return to Series is possible.
Just when it looks like it is time to right off Florida, they have resurgence. At 50-45, nobody takes them serious as real contenders (5-1 to win NL East), especially being -28 run differential. The Marlins give up too many runs (14th), allow too many free passes (14th), leaving the offense to pick up the slack. Somehow, someway, Florida scores in bunches and is 3rd in runs scored. Though they create natural wind flow leading the league in K’s, the Marlins find ways to manufacture wins. For exactly one month, Florida plays NL contenders, with possible exception of Colorado. Remember August 18 standings for Florida, it will tell the tale.
Arizona is a squad in real need of veteran leadership. This division is pathetic and they have found a way to bring others back into contention. Bullpen leaks oil, mostly on the road, the starting pitching could be great if Micah Owings and Randy Johnson find a groove. The hitters are too stubborn for their own good, whiffing 3rd most in the league. The D-Backs are 27-19 in downtown Phoenix and could use fast start, facing the Dodgers and Cubs at home. If successful, this creates immediate space in the standings. Build a small lead, hang on and wait until August 19, when the only trip is to sordid San Diego over next 15 ball games.
Like Arizona, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 1-1 odds to win NL West. Playing in Dodger Stadium helps L.A. surrender the fewest runs among the sixteen teams and strongly contributes to them being 13th in runs scored. The bullpen is second in the league in ERA, which means if this team is going to win division; the bats will have to come alive. With virtually no power (15th in home runs), how the Dodgers start magically scoring more runs is food for thought. A 3-3 road trip to commence second half is good beginning, with 20 of next 26 at home. If possible, Joe Torre’s club will want to have a lead in the division by September 8, when only six games will remain to be played at Dodger Stadium.
Because the NL West is so sad, San Francisco and Colorado have to be mentioned and now they have been.
Baseball Betting 2nd Half Outlook- AL
With the second half of the season about to commence, here is an in-depth look at many of the different perspectives of the contenders to win divisions or American League pennant. We’ll look into scheduling aspects, key stats that the contenders must maintain or improve upon in the last 60+ games remaining in the season. Additionally, we’ll look into these teams’ odds to win division or be AL representative in the World Series.
The Los Angeles Angels have the best record in the American League at 57-38 (+12.5 units). Their style of play in more National League-like, thanks to manager Mike Scioscia preferring to steal bases, having runners on the move and being aggressive. Despite superior record, they rank just third at most sportsbooks to be AL squad to be in Fall Classic at 3-1 odds. L.A. is only +21 in score differential, thanks to faulty offense. The Halos are 11th in runs scored in the AL, 12th in on-base percentage and impatient at the plate, ranking next to last in walks. The L.A. pitching staff is awesome, however the bullpen ranks only 11th in ERA in the AL. The Angles open the second half with Boston and Cleveland at the “Big A” in Anaheim. After that they head east to face Baltimore, the Red Sox and New York. In scheduling oddity, they have more games left with the Yankees (7), than with division rival Oakland (6).
Oakland continues to hang around in the AL West thanks to tremendous pitching from mostly talented youngsters. The A’s allow the fewest runs; have the lowest OBP surrendered and fourth best bullpen ERA. On offense, Oakland scuffles. The A’s are 11th in OBP and have the 2nd most strikeouts, making scoring runs an uphill battle. After the break, the Athletics road schedule is brutal, with series at New York, at Tampa Bay, at Boston, at Toronto, at Detroit and at Minnesota. Starting August 1, 20 of next 26 contests will be in traveling grays. Oakland is 4-1 to win division and real long shot at 30-1 to make Series.
Texas has baseball’s best offense-to-pitching dichotomy. The Rangers are first in runs scored, 2nd in OBP and 2nd in walks. These free swingers whiff more than any team in the junior circuit. Pitching numbers has Texas last in runs allowed, OBP, walks and next to last in strikeouts and bullpen ERA. In spite of playing pretty good baseball to have 50-46 record, hard to consider them even serious wild card contenders. The Rangers fate could be decided quickly with nine-game roadie at Twins, at White Sox and at Oakland.
The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central by 1.5 games and are second in the league in run differential at +83. The White Sox offense has gone through a few droughts, yet have bounced back to be third in runs scored. Manager Ozzie Guillen has produced a few tirades; however they have had nothing to do with the pitching. Sox pitchers do a fantastic job in limiting big innings; ranking 2nd in fewest walks and stay out of jams, being 3rd in strikeouts. Closer Bobby Jenks will start the second part of the season on the DL, with the Pale Hose having enough to cover up with the finest bullpen ERA in AL. If Chicago can but together 6-4 road trip starting July 25, they return to U.S. Cellular Field to take on Detroit, Boston and Kansas City, where they are sensational 32-13. Sox are 1-2 to take AL Central and 6-1 to make World Series.
Have to give manager Ron Gardenhire credit again, as most preseason magazines had Minnesota 4th or 5th in the division. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are legit stars and Michael Cuddyer has turned himself into a good player from a part-timer. With offensive deficiencies in the lower part of the line-up, scoring a lot of runs will continue to be an issue, but as long as the pitchers continue to give up the fewest walks, Minnesota is still a threat. The Twinkies open second half at the MetroDome and will play 19 of 31 there thru August 20. After this they leave for 15-day, 14-game road trip that sends them out West and to Canada. When the Twins arrive back home, everyone will know if 2-1 odds to division were true.
Detroit really missed a golden opportunity to close the gap in division; losing three of four to Minnesota at home in last series. If they had reversed those numbers, the Tigers would be only five back of Chicago and 1.5 behind the Twins.
Holding a 19-27 road record, Jim Leyland’s club will prove if they deserve being mentioned for postseason or just underachievers. Detroit will start with 17 of 20 on the road, which includes six conflicts with the White Sox. To have any hope, they will need to be within four games of Sox to have any potential real chance it appears. The Tigers are 4-1 to win division title and with pitching staff that is 12th in OBP and walks, the Tigers will need gigantic leap by all members of the staff to make run.
When analyzing numbers, no wonder Boston is 13-10 odds to return to World Series to defend crown. Second in runs, first in free passes and OBP, the Red Sox do all the little things right. They will definitely have to clean up 21-29 road record and possibly having David Ortiz back will help. The starting pitching is secure, with more consistency needed out of the bullpen to put together winning streaks of six or seven games. The schedule is fairly balanced and the Red Sox will enjoy a couple more days off than competitors, having played the most games in baseball to this point. Hard not to like Boston chances, if for no other reason than 36-11 record at Fenway Park.
Everyone was waiting for Tampa Bay slump and it came right before All-Star break. The Rays will seek to quickly regroup at Tropicana Field, where they are 36-14. Great pitching has kept Tampa Bay on everyone’s mind, being second in OBP allowed, 3rd best bullpen and 4th in runs allowed. The offense runs hot and cold, which is exhibited by being 3rd in walks and 3rd in striking out. Manager Joe Maddon will have to massage the egos of his young team, since after six home games starting Friday, 20 of next 29 are on the road. The Rays will have mettle tested in September also, playing AL East clubs, plus six with Twins and trio with Tigers. Tampa is 1-1 to steal the East and 5-2 to be Series rep from the AL.
The Yankees still believe they have enough to at least be wild card team. Injured players are returning, giving the New York faithful hope. Statistically, the numbers are not present to suggest such a run, being rather pedestrian in most categories. Joe Girardi’s squad will have opportunity to get on a roll with 13 of 16 at Yankee Stadium beginning Friday. The Bronx Bombers will need to likely be very close come Labor Day, with only 10 home games at Yankee Stadium in September. New York is just 7-1 to win division yet interestingly enough, have same 6-1 odds as White Sox to play in World Series.
Though a real long shot, have to at least mention Toronto, with its exceptional pitching, ranking 2nd in runs allowed. If the Blue Jays could at least be a top five offense team in the second part of the year, they would have to be a factor and sneak up to be in the hunt for wild card.
4-21-08
This year I was looking forward to the first games of Round 1 more than I can ever remember in the past. Having four games back to back on Saturday and Sunday was the only time the NBA Playoffs have even come close to the opening two days of the NCAA Tournament. Yeah, I realize I am in the minority who really was excited about watching Toronto take on Orlando or even Atlanta visit the all-mighty Celtics.
The NBA Playoffs are determined by match-ups more than anything else. How each team makes adjustments during a series is usually the determining factor on who moves forward and who “goes fishing”, to quote the long-standing joke on the TNT broadcasts with Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley.
In my mind, of the eight series in round one, only one team doesn’t stand any chance of making it close or even possibly winning the series. Obviously, that is the Atlanta Hawks, visitors to the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and who will be making an exit faster than it takes Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman to get to a photo-op.
Philadelphia - Detroit
The biggest surprise over the weekend in the opening games came with the Philadelphia victory over the surprised Detroit Pistons. Detroit just doesn’t get it. This is the playoffs. Did they think Philadelphia was going to roll over and had the Pistons the ball game? Maybe since the Pistons hadn’t lost a Game 1 in the first round since 2003, they were overconfident. They definitely weren’t focused as a number of Pistons hob-nobbed with a former teammate who was sitting in the stands.
Philly’s offense is second-tier coming in 20th out of the 30 NBA teams in efficiency. Philly's main offensive weapon is small forward Andre Iguodala, 19.9 ppg this year. However, against Detroit this year in the regular season he only shot 30% from the field. One of the league's best defenders, Tayshaun Prince, is the main guy on Philly's new "AI". Iguodala was held to an embarrassing 4 for 15 from the field Sunday.
There is a reason why the 76ers attempt a league low 11.5 shots from behind the three-point line. It is because Philly's offense is terrible from 3-point range shooting a league-worst 31.7%. Their point guard, Andre Miller, is one of the worst at 8.8% from behind the arc. Detroit is second best in the NBA in 3-point defense at 33.2% and third best overall at 43.7%. That explains just the 5 3-point attempts in Game 1.
In Sunday’s game, Philly’s coach, Mo Cheeks took a different approach in his defense with center Samuel Dalembert guarding Rasheed Wallace one-on-one without any doubling or receiving help on Wallace. He wanted the Pistons to try and take advantage of the mismatch which would take the offensive focus off of Billups, Hamilton, and Prince.
Wallace did score 8 points quickly and then defiantly yelled over to Cheeks that he needed to change his defense. Well, Billups, Hamilton, and Prince shot only 13 for 39, 33.3%, from the field. Wallace stopped sinking shots and ended up only 9 for 21 and only getting to the free throw line four times.
For the Pistons to get back to winning, they have to make poor shooting Andre Miller strictly a perimeter player and not let him drive. Miller blew by Billups late in the fourth quarter for a key basket.
Detroit has to get focused and not let Rasheed help the team implode with a technical foul, which happened Sunday, nor being distracted nor becoming a distraction like he was with ten seconds to go in the game when he went over to the 76ers huddle and listened in. If was rather fitting that he missed the bunny to tie up the game.
The 76ers have to keep the Pistons off-kilter on offense. Keep running and running more to speed up the tempo against the NBA’s slowest paced team and to avoid being forced into half-court sets against the fourth highest rated number in defensive efficiency.
I cashed a winning ticket in Sunday’s Detroit-Philly game with a very good StatFox FoxSheets Super Situation that that is 17-2 over the past 5 seasons. That is to play the Under the lined total when you have a home team that is outscoring the opposition by more than 7 points per game and the lined total is in the 170's and the other team is outscoring their opponents by 0 to 3 points. This Super Situation should be active again in the rematch Wednesday between the 76ers and Pistons assuming the total remains in the current active range in the 170’s.
If the Under keeps cashing, that means the 76ers aren’t doing the job in running and speeding up the tempo which will spell doom for them in this series.
Phoenix – San Antonio
In what will go down as a classic in playoff lore, San Antonio made a great comeback from 16 points down to win in double overtime over the Suns. The Shaq experiment was looking very good in Game 1 just like it did in the two games the Suns beat the Spurs with O’Neal in the lineup during the regular season.
Defensively, Shaq was impressive with 4 blocks. Once O’Neal got into bad foul trouble along with most all of the Sun’s frontcourt, the defense really softened as Phoenix was playing back on their heels. For Phoenix to come back and win this series, he and Amare Stoudemire have to stay out of foul trouble early. If Stoudemire and Shaq aren’t foul-prone, the inside game should go well as Duncan has big problems with Amare’s quickness and Shaq can overwhelm Oberto.
Through halftime of Saturday's game, San Antonio had only shot 40.1 percent against Phoenix this season. The Suns were especially good defending Ginobili in these games, only 20 of 71 from the field.
In the first half, the Spurts were only 14 of 37 from the field, 37.8%. The goal of not doubling on Duncan and instead taking away the three was working as the Spurs were just 1 of 5 from behind the arc.
After halftime, the Spurs shot 58.6 percent, with Ginobili scoring on seven drives and Parker getting six buckets in the paint, including four uncontested lay-ups. Phoenix could not keep San Antonio from the inside as 50 of the Spurs’ 77 second-half and overtime points came in the paint.
San Antonio has to play better defense. In four of their last six games they have allowed the other team to hoot 50% or better. The two teams they held below 50% were anemic Seattle, the team with the leagues lowest offensive efficiency, and Utah in the last game of the season that the Jazz were tanking to avoid playing the Spurs in round 1.
An ATS trend taken from the StatFox FoxSheets which could turn out to be prophetic is San Antonio this year is just 5-15 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. In contrast, in the same situation, Phoenix is 9-4 ATS this year and 33-16 ATS over the past three seasons.
Dallas – New Orleans
In a series that tested the experienced Dallas Mavs against the young New Orleans Hornets, you had a tale of two halves. Perhaps the Hornets were a little rattle being in the playoffs, especially as a #2 seed after not even making the playoffs last year.
Mavs held the Hornets below 40% from the field in the first half on their way to a 12-point lead, 52-40. Paul had 11 points but just three assists in the first half. At a halftime interview, Jason Kidd was asked what he was doing to slow Paul down. Kidd had a grin on his face and said, “Well, nothing. It’s a team effort with a laugh.” It’s as if Kidd realized he couldn’t guard Paul. Paul needs to keep driving and blowing by Kidd for the Hornets to prevail.
The Hornets harassed the Mavericks into shooting 28.1 percent from the field for the final three quarters of Game 1. The Mavs scored eight points in the paint in the first quarter but only eight more the remainder of the game. Dallas scored just four fast-break points in the final 36 minutes as the Hornets made the Mavericks try to beat them in the half court. Dallas only had 9 field goals in the second half.
Dallas needs to get back to what they did in the first half, get the ball into the paint and don’t settle for perimeter shots. Dirk Nowitzki needs to be an inside power forward and get to the line.
Kidd needs to post-up Paul inside. Trapping Paul to make him get rid of the rock could hamper the Hornets’ offense. Josh Howard needs to be more aggressive and drive and not disappear offensively, as he did in the second half going 0-8.
The Hornets will continue to be physical with Nowitzki, limit his shot attempts and make him work on the defensive end. Nowitzki got 31 points, but on 9-21 shooting including 1 of 4 from 3-point range. Limiting the Dallas transition game will still be their goal.
Denver – Los Angeles
A close game for a half with Denver only down by 2 at the break. The third quarter was a killer for Denver as they were outscored, 39-22. Pau Gasol showed how well-rounded of offensive player he is with 36 points, 16 rebounds, and eight assists. Lamar Odom showed his value to the team in scoring and with his exceptional passing.
This game was a clinic for Phil Jackson’s triangle offense as it tallied 33 assists on 46 baskets, an amazing ratio. Lot of easy looks for LA all night long.
Denver succumbed to the superior Laker depth. When Kobe Bryant went out of the game in the third quarter along with fellow starting guard, Derek Fisher, due to foul trouble, the Nuggets were down by 11 points. That is a pretty small obstacle for a team that plays at the pace Denver does. Instead, LA outscores Denver 19-11 in the final 5 minutes of the quarter building up a 19-point lead.
Iverson needs to drive and get to the line more. He can draw contact as well as anybody in the league. Once he makes it to the line, he has to make his free throws instead of going 7-13 for the game. Marcus Camby has to play more like the defensive player of the year he used to be and be more physical with Gasol. Linas Kleiza and J.R. Smith need to have similar games like they had in game 1. I would play Smith more and Anthony Carter less.
Denver is 29-11 SU, 26-13 ATS, if Carmelo hits 50% plus of his shots, 18-21 SU and 13-26 ATS if he is below 50%. Anthony needs to be more selective and his teammates have to get him the ball in better offensive positions,
Kenyon Martin guarding Kobe was a interesting move. Martin must not be as foul prone if George Karl is going to keep him on Bryant defensively. Kobe was just 2-10 in the first half scoring only 4 points. Martin missed a bunch of the second half in foul trouble and Bryant went off scoring 28 additional points.
A couple of totals trends I spotted on the FoxSheets might be valuable as this series continues. Denver is 22-10 Over after a loss and 16-3 Over in the second half of the season when playing against a team making 76%+ of their free throws for the season.
Utah - Houston
Houston appears to have run out of gas. The biggest problem is the lack of more reliable offensive weapons besides just Tracy McGrady, who has not been playing well since hurting his shoulder in the second half of the season. They only rank 17th in offensive efficiency versus the Jazz, #2 in that category. With Rafer Alston hurt, that puts more pressure on replacement Bobby Jackson who failed miserably in game 1 going 3 of 15.
The results of the second game are not known at the time of this article, but obviously Houston needs to win the second game. If they do, playing the best defense of their lives in games 3 and 4 at Salt Lake is mandatory. Freeing up McGrady has to also top the list.
Utah just needs to continue to swarm on McGrady and deny him the ball in good positions. Make the supporting cast beat you.
Washington - Cleveland
Washington has shown how they plan on attacking Cleveland, besides just with their mouths. It is be physical against the superstar James and wear him down, frustrate him, and let him beat you at the line.
The results of the second game aren’t known at this time, but the Wizards need to avoid letting Lebron beat them. The Cavs supporting cast isn’t strong enough to be a difference maker in this series. Get Brendan Haywood involved offensively and keep running plays for Antawn Jamison as he is the toughest matchup for the Cavs.
Somebody besides James has to step up for Cleveland the way Daniel Gibson did in last year’s playoffs. James has to stay healthy and make his free throws.
There are some strong team trends taken from the FoxSheets to watch for that favor the Under in the remaining Washington-Cleveland series. Washington is 16-4 Under when after four games of committing less than 14 turnovers, and 10-3 Under after five games. Cleveland is 14-4 Under the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning record.
Toronto - Orlando
Orlando shot lights out in the first quarter against Toronto jumping to a 43-23 first quarter lead.
Andrea Bargnani had replaced rookie Jamario Moon in the lineup Sunday. Coach Mitchell needs to give more minutes to rookie surprise Moon, the Raptors best defender, and less to the soft perimeter loving Bargnani, who tallied a total of four points
The Raptors are the best in the league at taking care of the basketball, averaging the fewest turnovers per game. They are also the second-best 3-point shooting team and rank seventh in overall field goal percentage. Unfortunately, Orlando is a better shooting team with an inside presence, Dwight Howard, who had 25 points, 22 rebounds and five blocks in the game.
Toronto has to get more production from their two-headed point guard position. Ford and Calderon shot a combined 4 of 20 from the field. And to let Jameer Nelson get 24 points is disgraceful.
For Orlando, there is nothing to change. Howard being a monster inside, hitting your 3’s, and Hedo continuing to play to the same level.
Atlanta - Boston
For the Hawks to have some hope, maybe the entire Celtics team will catch the measles and have to forfeit the next four games
The NBA Playoffs Begin!
By Jim Kruger
4-17-08
If you like close races and an excess of uncertainty, then you had to have loved the pursuit of teams making it into the NBA Playoffs and the jockeying for the best seeds that has transpired this season. The NBA always presents some interesting bets on series and futures bets, both on who wins each conference title and also who takes the whole enchilada.
The Lakers are the favorite to win the Western Conference Championship at just slightly better than even money, 6-5, as listed at sportsbook.com. San Antonio is runner up at 3 to 1 with Phoenix closely behind at 7 to 2. Denver is the long shot at 30 to 1. New Orleans and Utah are lined both at 7 to 1 followed by Dallas at 10 to 1 while Houston comes in at 18 to 1.
You have to bet seven dollars to win just two buck on the hands down favorites in the Eastern Conference title race, the Boston Celtics. Detroit is next in line at 2 to 1. Everybody else has double-digit odds to win the Eastern title starting with Orlando and Cleveland at 10 to 1. The long-shots are Washington, 20 to 1, Toronto, 40 to 1, Philadelphia at 75 to 1, and Atlanta as the only triple-digit team, 100 to 1.
In order to determine what team presents good value and a possible wager, we need to look at the most likely scenarios and subsequent team and player match-ups.
Round 1
While Atlanta has surprisingly made the playoffs, it will be a short visit as the Hawks will be facing Boston in Round 1. Boston clinched the #1 seed in the East quite some time ago and has been cutting back starters minutes significantly and letting the second-stringers even play most, if not all, of the fourth quarter.
We saw a sneak preview of this matchup Saturday night when Atlanta visited Boston needing a win to lock up their playoff entry. The game was tied after three quarters when the Celtic subs took over. Led by veteran Sam Cassell, the subs outscored the Hawks 25-15 to win the game by 10. Cassell himself equaled the Hawks production for the quarter with 15 points of his own. Atlanta finished the season with a whimper losing to Orlando and Miami. Get the brooms out.
Boston will face Washington in the second round as I believe the Wizards get revenge against the Cavs from losing to them in the playoffs last year and the year before. Washington is getting healthy with Gilbert Arenas now back along with Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison.
With the media’s and public’s love for the Boston Celtics, along with David Stern’s wish of a Boston-Los Angeles final, the #2 seeded Detroit Pistons are in a place they love to be: the team that is getting dissed and not being shown the respect they deserve. They play Philly in Round 1.
Besides Atlanta, Philadelphia is another nice story in the East. Keeping point guard Andre Miller along with the continued improvement of Andre Iguodala were vital factors in their success. However, the front office giving coach Mo Cheeks a contract extension has been the best move with the 76ers going 16-10 since the vote of confidence. A move to a more up-tempo game also helped as it helped eliminate three-point field goal attempts, a category Philly is last in the league in sinking successfully with a sad 31.5% mark. The 76ers had a good season, but Detroit takes them out.
Toronto is team that has improved but still fell short of some people’s expectations. Even though they are the only NBA team named after Hollywood computer generated graphic reptiles, the Raptors are just not a physical enough team to play any of physical teams in the NBA. However, Coach Sam Mitchell started playing Rasho Nesterovic more and taking away minutes from Andrea Bargnani at the beginning of March and the Raptors defensive numbers have shown improvement at times. While Toronto point guard T.J. Ford can be spectacular at times with his speed, his decision making is suspect and he can be erratic.
Orlando, with the addition of Rashard Lewis in the off-season, made the trio of Lewis, Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu one of the best and most high scoring frontcourts in the NBA. Howard can dominate. He is a very good defender and has the muscle to be overpowering inside. The Magic were one of the best teams in the NBA on the road, 27-14 SU and ATS. The Magic take out the Raptors.
The Magic do play very good defense, #6 in defensive efficiency. That, and the fact they are one of the top five shooting teams in the league, will make them a dark horse to take the Pistons out in Round 2. Howard can match up against the Pistons’ physicality. However, the Magic’s backcourt needs improvement before they will be a serious title contender. The size of the Piston’s backcourt will be too much for the Magic. Pistons prevail.
Cleveland is only 14-13 since the big trade that brought Ben Wallace and Wally Szczerbiak to the team while jettisoning Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden. Lebron’s back is giving him problems and he cannot carry the load himself in the playoffs.
There has been trash talking between the two teams with my favorite quote coming from Wizards’ forward, DeShawn Stevenson, calling Lebron James "overrated." This will be a very entertaining series. Cleveland has too few of offensive options to help Lebron. The healthy Wizards move forward.
East - Round 2
Washington could give the Celtics some problems in Round 2 as they are the only team that beat Boston more than once this year and also swept the Hornets. However, a leaky defense will be the Wizards’ downfall and the Celts go to the conference finals.
East – Finals
Boston has the Big Three and Detroit has The Big Four. For years, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince have carried the Pistons. Detroit meets Boston in the Eastern Finals.
Rondo will have problems with Billups. Garnett and Rasheed Wallace might very well cancel each other out. Sheed is an excellent defender with length and strength. Detroit’s depth has vastly improved as Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell are some of the best off of the bench in the NBA. However, Boston’s depth matches up well and just like Detroit, received a lot of playing time late in the season.
Boston, with the third highest rated defense in NBA history along with its star power and better shooting, wins in seven.
West – Round 1
The final seeding for the West came down to being decided on the very last day of the regular season. This has been the closest conference race with so many positions up for grabs so late in the season that I am aware of.
The Lakers will be opening with the Nuggets in a 1 versus 8 scenario. The Lakers swept their three-game season-series with the defensively-challenged Nuggets, whose smallish backcourt has a very difficult time matching up with Kobe. The Lakers averaged 118 points against Denver.
Denver has made their last 4 visits to the playoffs last as long as it takes to get a couple of large pies from Dominoes. Denver has a 4-16 SU record in the playoffs in their four straight playoff visits this century. This should be a fairly fast series. Denver has two scoring options, Carmelo and AI. LA has much better balance. For you fans of streaks, Denver surprisingly is on an 11 game streak of going Under the lined total in the playoffs. In their 20 playoff games in their last 4 series, the Under is 16-4. Lakers go to Round 2.
Dallas will meet New Orleans. Jason Kidd is a little long in the tooth to keep up with Hornets point guard Chris Paul. Paul ran circles around him in an earlier meeting. Has the Jason Kidd trade been successful? You decide: The Mavs were 35-18 SU before Kidd, 17-13 AK (after Kidd).
David West and Tyson Chandler are one of the better frontcourts in the league has surprising, Early in the year, Coach Byron Scott said they can’t be a team that runs, they weren’t capable of winning relying on the fast break. The Hornets ended up with the 26th ranked pace, averaging just 92.1 possessions per game.
Dallas was beating below .500 teams while losing to good teams and appeared to be improving, but the loss to Seattle Sunday is disturbing even though the game probably means very little to the seeding. It doesn’t help the Mavs that Hornets coach Byron Scott doesn’t like Kidd and will do anything and everything to beat him and make him look bad. Scott tried to coach Kidd a few years ago when he coached him as the Nets head man. Even though Dallas has better depth and obvious playoff experience, the Hornets move on.
The Spurs are starting to look and play their age. They were recently blown out at Utah, 90-64, and only had difficulties at Portland a couple of nights later. Phoenix and the Lakers both made mince-meat out of them recently. Yes, they toppled the Jazz in the last game of the season, but did Utah want to lose that game to avoid playing the Spurs in the playoffs and instead forfeit home-court advantage to meet the Houston Rockets rather than the Spurs? After all, who crushed the Jazz in the Western Finals last season? Yep, it was the Spurs.
Manu Ginobili has sat out the last two games before their home match against Utah. However, in their last five games the Spurs have only played against one top ten defensive teams as ranked by defensive efficiency, the #7 Lakers. In those five games, the Spurs have had a lot of trouble scoring averaging only 79 points a game.
Before their final game against Utah, in their previous five games, the Spurs have only played against one top ten defensive teams as ranked by defensive efficiency, the #7-rated Lakers. Two of the games were against defensively challenged Seattle and Portland. In those five games, the Spurs have had a lot of trouble scoring averaging only 79 points a game. They have not been able to get above a 95 rating in offensive efficiency and have averaged a horrific 87.4 in OE. The offensive efficiency rating is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions.
That is an average of less than a point per possession. To put that into perspective, only three teams in the NBA this year scored less than a point per possession. And, San Antonio’s recent 87.4 OE average is a full ten points below the league’s worst OE team, the Seattle Sonics.
San Antonio is missing two other key contributors in past playoffs, especially with their outside shooting, Robert “Big Shot Bob” Horry, and Brent Barry. Barry is back but Horry has missed 13 games with a knee contusion and it is still considerably bothering him. Without Horry, who is going to body-block Steve Nash into the scorer’s table to help turn a series around? Manu played in the last Spurs game so it looks like he should be a strong contributor.
Even though it is always assumed the Spurs are an “Under machine”, they are only 46-42 Under in the playoffs, but a sharp 54-35 ATS, 60.7%, in the post-season since 2003.
Phoenix meets the Spurs and the Shaq experiment will prove to be successful. The bludgeoning of the Spurs by Phoenix last week at San Antonio was not a fluke. Tim Duncan can’t handle Amare Stoudemire and Shaq gives the Suns the advantage on the boards. The Suns eliminate the Spurs.
Utah and Houston met last year with the Rockets jumping out to 2-0 lead and having home-court advantage. However, Utah came back to win the series and then capitulate Golden State in Round 2 before losing to the Spurs in the Finals. Carlos Boozer is a very good center, but cannot handle someone like Tim Duncan.
Houston has revenge against the Jazz, but Shane Battier and Tracy McGrady are hurting and even though they had a wonderful season after Yao Ming went out, the lights go out for Houston this round. Houston is a good match-up for Utah with Yao injured even though the Rockets have AARP-member Dikembe Mutombo patrolling the paint.
West Round 2
This puts the Hornets against the Suns. Not a bad choice if you are a Hornet’s fan as New Orleans swept the series, 4-0, mostly because point guard Chris Paul cancels Steve Nash out and center Chandler protects the rim helping stop slashing to the basket by Phoenix. Because of Paul, Nash is the first point guard since 1990-91 with Magic Johnson to average 11 assists and not lead the league in that category. Tough series and close to a coin flip on who wins, but I think the Hornets can take out the Suns to continue their miraculous season.
After the Jazz beat Houston, they go against LA in Round 2. The Lakers went 3-1 against the Jazz this year winning by 13, 11 and 10 points. The Lakers were responsible for one of Utah’s four losses at home. Gasol does well against Utah and Odom is too athletic and quick in individual match-ups. Yes, the Kyle Korver trade made a huge difference for the Jazz, even though he isn’t a starter. The Jazz are 26-2 SU when Korver scores at 10 points or more and are 11-11 on the road with Korver, an area that Utah was very poor at BK (before Kyle). The Lakers win the series in seven games.
West-Finals
The Lakers face the upstart Hornets in the West Finals. A lot has been said about the scoring of Pau Gasol for the Lakers. After the first meeting this past weekend against the Spurs for the “new look” Lakers with Gasol, a lot should be said of his defensive contributions. He held Tim Duncan to 16 points on 6 of 19 shooting.
Regardless, defense is still the biggest question mark for Los Angeles. Derek Fisher gives LA another scoring threat besides Gasol for Kobe to pass to when he is being harassed. However, Fisher isn’t a very good defender. They've been burnt by quick point guards and have been poor at time in rotating out to 3-point shooters.
However, for a team to go from not making the playoffs last year to making the NBA Finals is asking too much for the Hornets. LA wins the conference title.
NBA Championship
David Stern has his wish with LA playing Boston for all of the marbles.
The team in the East with the biggest swagger to them is Boston. Perhaps not quite to the level that the Pistons used to have, but this team believes it will win it all. Their defense was ranked 18th last year and this year have put up numbers are unbelievable.
When he was at Kentucky, opponents loved to see Rajon Rondo hoist a shot from deep. He still has troubles hitting long range as evidenced by his 26.3% three-point accuracy this year, but he doesn’t need to score for the Celts to win. Instead, he plays lights-out defense pressuring the ball handler coming up-court. Rondo averages 1.7 steals a game, 12th best in the league. He can go for the steal in the half-court defense as he is backed by one of the best defenders in Kevin Garnett along with up and coming defender Kendrick Perkins.
Boston has the bench strength with Leon Powe and Glenn Davis in the frontcourt and the recently acquired Sam Cassell to be the backup at point. James Posey, 6-8 small forward, and guard Eddie House give sweet 3-point shooting depth behind stars Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.
IF, Los Angeles was to get a healthy Andrew Bynum back early in the playoffs, I could see the Lakers having a shot at winning it all. However, you have to work him into a much different team with Gasol than the one that he was playing with earlier this season. Therefore, I don’t think Bynum will be a positive factor for LA regardless. Boston becomes one of the greatest sports stories of all time and Stern is happy because ABC is happy that the NBA ratings for the Finals finally show a strong uptick. Boston wins it all.
As for making a wager on who is going to win the conference titles and the Championship, sportsbook.com has the Celtics at 7-4 to take it all. That’s not a lot of value but I don’t see Detroit beating a West team to be #1, but I still would prefer better odds. My favorite Eastern Conference long shot is Orlando, but I am not going to put money on them to win it all.
One statistic to remember is that teams who have held home-court advantage in an NBA best-of-seven series have won 75% of the series.
My favorite Western long shot is Phoenix. I still regret, personally and financially, doubting Shaquille O’Neal could be such a strong factor and help the Miami Heat beat Dallas in the Finals two years ago. Phoenix has the experience to take the young Hornets down. At 7-2 to win the West, I can see the Suns doing it, so I will put a wager on Phoenix.
After all, even though Shaq and Kobe supposedly have made up, the Big Diesel would love it ever so much to ruin Bryant's MVP-type season in the playoffs and beat LA.
Could Phoenix beat Boston? I doubted Shaq before, I’m not going to doubt him again. The Suns at 7-1 to win the NBA Championship is a play I see sufficient value in to make a wager.
